The only upsets (if you can call it upsets) I see happening are New Orleans over Denver and Dallas over San Antonio. I struggled with the Dal/SA pick. I went back and forth with it in my mind, I certainly dont think SA can get to the finals without Manu but my dilemma is that I do think they are good enough and experienced enough to at least win one round but at the same time I like how their opponent the Mavs have been playing down the stretch. I'm gonna take the Mavs to win that series.
I dont think Denver can win it all b/c Denver's best two players are jump shooters and they dont play defense consistently well enough. Utah, they just have been horrific on the road this season particularly against the playoff teams not named the Hornets. The Hornets lack depth and Peja needs to step up his game if the Hornets are to do any damage in the postseason. The offensive halfcourt execution of the Hornets when Antonio Daniels is running point is not that good at all. One of the reasons why I think NO can beat DEN is b/c Denver makes a lot of turnovers, its one of their achillees heels and that will make things easier on the Hornets 2nd unit, they will be able to get out on the fastbreak some and get some easy buckets in transition. I'm looking forward to seeing Kenyon Martin guard David West, Kenyon Martin has played some good defense this season.
I just think SA is done now because if your SA you've never been a team that over powered your opponents by outscoring them, you've had creative balance offensively and defensively and Manu paced that with his penetration. Now , its more about ball movement and knocking down perimeter shots. More responsibility for guys like Mason and Finley to be able to get offense particularly in the halfcourt. Manu is a tremendous penetrator and a guy that can finish in the paint with the best of them but the guys in the lineup now for the most are perimeter oriented so when the jumpshots are falling they look great but when the shots dont fall they look horrible. I know some will say that Mason can provide secondary scoring but really most of his points come off of Parker dribble penetrations or Duncan post-ups. Other than Tony Parker this team no longer has anyone that can create his own shot.
Orlando/Philly, - a lot of folks (myself included) thought Orlando would be dead after JameerNElson went down but the acquisition of Rafer has been a very good one for the Magic. While Jameer may be a better scorer I think Rafer is better at finding his teammates for scoring opportunities. I do think Philly has an advantage at point guard though Andre Miller in my opinion is the most underrated point guards in the league.
