Divorce Rates

[Keebler Elf]

I hear people all the time saying marriage has a 50/50 chance of success. In fact, that's not really true. Or, at least, it's an inaccurate representation of the facts.

Today's Toronto Star has an article on divorce rates that puts the official rate in Ontario somewhere around 37%. So 1-in-3. Granted, in Quebec it rises to 49%.

HOWEVER, the article also makes a very important point: people who have already been divorced are more likely to get divorced again in the future.

If you take people who have already been divorced out of the equation, I believe the divorce rate would drop significantly (probably down to around 20%, IMO). 4-in-5 odds of success is a helluva lot different than 1-in-2.

Just something to consider next time someone tells you a marriage only has a 50% shot at working. Especially if the people getting married haven't been divorced before.

Why do people make the odds seem worse than they really are. IMHO, it's a way for people who have already failed at marriage to downplay that failure by making it seem like "everybody" is doing it. Or to downplay the significance of marriage as a way to hedge their bets, so to speak, in case the marriage "doesn't work out" (and take note, I'm not saying there isn't such a thing as a bad marriage that should end in divorce; I just think a lot of people get married for the wrong reasons and are too quick to give up on it).

 

[red]

i have a fifty percent rate myself

 

[auto doctor]

and take note, I'm not saying there isn't such a thing as a bad marriage

Mostly bad journalism.........and very little good journalism...and that journalism has to be negative or hipe journalism.


** pardon me... I've just learned how to spell journalism**

 

[Keebler Elf]

Too true. Personally I think most "journalists" should now be called "entertainment reporters".

Or, better yet, "court jesters" - since they're only there for our amusement.

 

[The Doctor]

Well speaking strictly from a mathematical perspective...once you're married you only have two outcomes: stay married or get divorced. Given that you have two possibilities then the chance of getting divorced is in fact one in two or a 50% chance.

Now if we look at it from a more physical aspect, and there are many on this board who might be able to speak to this in a more detailed manner, we might want to look more at inertia and Newton's Second Law. There is a great deal of momentum in a marriage or any relationship for that matter and this can impact our mathematical model above. But for argument's sake, let's assume that a body in motion i.e. the marriage, will continue on it's course until it meets a greater force and that course is changed. In the early stges of the marriage when the sex is good and everything is great, the momentum is clearly leaning towards staying married and therefore moving our odds of divorce to a number somewhere less than 50%.

However after the first couple of years when things get to be somewhat routine and the male partner in the relationship discovers the internet, that momentum starts to slow and after the discovery of TERB, it infact shifts back towards divorce moving our chance for divorce back up to a number somewhat greater that 50%.

Now once you factor in other extraneous inputs such as religion, children, financial or social pressures, you further complicate the discussion and ruin almost any possiblity of proving that marriage is or is not a 50- 50 gamble.

Thus endith todays lesson.

 

[Cardinal Fang]

Who let this guy in?

 

[eyeofthedragon]

I much prefer his erotic fiction

 

[Keebler Elf]

Uhhh, having only two options is not the same thing as having a 50-50 chance of either one of the two occuring. If I have a six-sided die with five sides with the number 1 on it, and one side with the number 2 on it, I have two possible outcomes. But the probability of either of those outcomes is NOT 50-50.

Keep yer day job, Doc.

 

[Mable]

If you get married there are 5 possible outcomes -- you stay married; you get divorced; you get permanently separated and never become a divorce stat; you become widowed; you die.

And I think that 37% applies to second or subsequent divorces. Last time I checked with the authorities the rate of first time divorces was pushing 58%.

 

[The Doctor]

Keep yer day job, Doc.

Hmmmmm, is he talking about my humour or my math skills?



It's the delivery, isn't it? The material is good. Must be the delivery.

 

[Keebler Elf]

Last time I checked with the authorities the rate of first time divorces was pushing 58%.

Then check again cuz that's way off. Unless the authorities are divorce lawyers looking to score a buck.

 

[Picard]

it is depressing to hear so many divorce. The topic was discussed on CBC news last night. The program indicated that alot of couples prefer live together for a while before married. They want to test each other habits first before settle down.

Does the high divorce rate scare anyone on TERB?