Unreal, Dow is now at a 6 year low, the last time we were here it was 2002 in the midst of the 911 recession. How low is the bottom? In fact I would have to look back 10 years to see the Dow as low as it is on Google. I suspect 6500 and maybe the same for the TSX
Dow at new 6 year low....how low will it go!!
- Thread starter nottyboi
- Start date
Radio said this morning that if you invested $10,000 in the Dow ten years ago and reinvested all dividends (and paid no taxes) it would be worth $9,950 to-day. Put your money in Canada Savings Bonds or spend it on wine, women and song.nottyboi said:
True, but if you put the money in forty or fifty years ago.Rockslinger said:
There is a lot of "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" news coverage of late.
I'm not saying everything is wonderful, but I think the media is feeding a lot of this, "I think I'll just jump off a bridge - life as we know it is over" mentality at present.
Which will yield cirrhosis, herpes, and a sore throat.Rockslinger said:
....but you'll be very happy!!!!!!!!
Radio said that GM just hit a 70 year low at a buck fifty seven. But, I do see your point. Yes, I hope to have grandchildren some day. BTW I think I heard someone say his parents bought a house in High Park for $5,000 in 1954 and it is (was) worth $500,000 now.Aardvark154 said:
E
enduser1
If the USD does not hyperinflate, the ultimate low will be between:
778 and 48, IMHO 555 is my projection.
But, if we have hyperinflation, realistically DOW 36,000 is a possibility.
EU
778 and 48, IMHO 555 is my projection.
But, if we have hyperinflation, realistically DOW 36,000 is a possibility.
EU
E
enduser1
Not the Dow. But Gold to $2500.00 if there was a hyperinflation, however we have Dems in charge, so if the economy skyrockets all of a sudden, interest rates will go super high and taxes will increase. This is to assume consumers had money to spend. Stocks are no where to go now, especially with bank nationalization talks (BoA and Citi), GM getting their asses totally kicked in ($52 BIL capitalization now only $1.1 BIL), and all the white collar jobs are now in China, India, The Philippines, and Malaysia.....and Americans are getting pretty pissed 'bout that.enduser1 said:
I see a lost decade scenario, a cash economy starting, credit cards collapsing, and yep, if CCs collapse, so does many Internet businesses. And the US Media doesn't mind seeing the Internet go south, frankly.
Gyaos Baltar.
I think printing all this money for the bailout will cause inflation. Look at Zimbabwe, they have the highest inflation in the world because they keep printing money. Thats why everyone is buying gold today because when the bailout money hits the market, the USD will be lower in value.nottyboi said:
Tony321 said:
Zimbabwe is not Canada or the USA. Canada and the USA still have enormous domestic productive capacity whereas Zimbabwe produces very little. To cause inflation IMHO you need some degree of supply constraint. If China had not developed into a massive exporter in the last decade, we'd have 12-15% inflation right now. But China is ready to ship as many goods as we need. If they decide to take down the US$ they will be putting a bullet in their own head. Sorry but I just don't buy the inflation theory. Oil is down, house prices are down, car prices are down and demand is dropping like a stone.
There is a lag effect. For example, the U.S. financed the VietNam war in the 1960's by printing money instead of raising taxes, this led to the 10%-12% inflation in 1980 which was tamed by the brutal 1981 recession. History has shown that there will always be inflation. How much salary do you make today and how much house can you buy? How much salary did your father make and how much house could he buy?nottyboi said:
Yes, but what kind of TV could dad buy for $1000 compared to now? Inflation does not consider qualitative improvements. At the time of the Vietnam war, manufacturing capacity was highly constrained, with the US being the worlds factory. There was no Chinese manufacturing to mention of and Europe was still not fully recovered from WWII . There was no Korea, Taiwan made junk. Even Made in Japan was a joke. Today there are so many countries that make first rate products. (including China and even South America). Productivity is massively higher and there is actually a surplus of manufactured goods. Even at the height of the bubble, there was never any shortage of goods or competition for goods.Rockslinger said:
True, but a majority of the countries that are in trouble in this deflated Bush Jr. induced bubble are in worse shape than the US. So I think it will have the opposite effect, the US (and the UK) ends up on a deflation spiral. In reality, the US isn't printing money, they are borrowing their own money stolen from China and the oil companies, and cutting off nearly 60% of the Iraq funding.Tony321 said:
The Zimbabwe model has no one "attached" to it, hence their super inflation.
Gyaos Baltar.
nottyboi said:
The problem is that the $US, even if it is the worlds reserve currency, still
is a fiat currency. When the US prints an excess amoput of $US, what will
EVENTUALLY happen is that the value of the $US will fall. Too many apples,
prices fall, too many $US, prices fall.
The fall in the price of the $US will not be obvious in term of other currencies, because
the $US is the worlds reserve currency, but will show itself in two ways:
1. in an increase in real assets, primarily oil and gold.
2. in a high interest necessary to get anyone to hold US treasuries.
These are my views.
