Keep a close eye on gold…it looks like it’s breaking out to the upside as traders anticipate interest rate cuts
Gold looks like it’s ready for a breakout
- Thread starter Harveyspector
- Start date
All of the gold holdings of world's central banks combined together
would not be worth the total national debt of the U.S at current gold
price. To my estimate payment in gold at today's price can only pay
off at most no more than one half of U.S.'s total debt.
Imagine Putin seized all of the world's gold and was planning to sell
all of them to pay his pal Trump so he can balance the budget and pay
off the nation's debt of USD$34 trillion. Well before a tiny fraction of Vlad's
gold were sold gold price would likely be brought down significantly below
where it is trading today.
Now imagine another scenario wherein Biden decided it was time to
consider default on nation's debt as an alternative to pay it off. You can
be assured that it would take only exchange of a minute fraction of U.S.
treasuries into gold for gold price to shoot to the moon.
The first scenario is pure fictional and implausible. The second one
is highly unlikely if not implausible. Nonetheless massive debt default
in global finance in the near term is plausible if inflation persists.
At some point gold and silver would be repriced to a realistic level
to reflect its true value. I am betting gold price to rise to $2600 within
this year and $3000 by the end of next year.
Oil price level and stability will also be one crucial factor
influencing gold price. I am wagering on oil production in
Russia to fall steadily starting this year. This is to be followed
by oil production decline in Saudi as well due to geological
constraint. Gold price could shoot to way above $5000 with
a decline of global oil production in the range of 5%--10%
from current level.
Gold Is Rallying. It Isn’t About Inflation This Time. (msn.com)
Zooming out, from 1970 through 2023, gold rose at a surprisingly high compound annual rate of 7.5%, though much of that was front-loaded in the 1970s. It has only matched inflation since then. Stocks have trounced the lifeless gold cube, with the S&P 500 posting a 10.6% annual total return from 1970 to 2023, or 11.7% if starting from 1980.
Zooming out, from 1970 through 2023, gold rose at a surprisingly high compound annual rate of 7.5%, though much of that was front-loaded in the 1970s. It has only matched inflation since then. Stocks have trounced the lifeless gold cube, with the S&P 500 posting a 10.6% annual total return from 1970 to 2023, or 11.7% if starting from 1980.
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Gold stocks valuation seem to be based on bullion price
below $1800.
Gold could rise from the current price of $2200 to
$2600 within a year. Should $2600 be anticipated
by the market to be the floor price gold stocks in
general could double in valuation. At a bullion price of
$3000 Agnico Eagle Mines could rise to $180 from
$80. Barrick is way more undervalued than AEM. If
not for the geopolitical risk associated with its assets
Barrick stock price should be worth twice as much where
it is now. Gold mining stocks are still in the early phase
of bull run in the precious/base metal sector of the board
stock market.
below $1800.
Gold could rise from the current price of $2200 to
$2600 within a year. Should $2600 be anticipated
by the market to be the floor price gold stocks in
general could double in valuation. At a bullion price of
$3000 Agnico Eagle Mines could rise to $180 from
$80. Barrick is way more undervalued than AEM. If
not for the geopolitical risk associated with its assets
Barrick stock price should be worth twice as much where
it is now. Gold mining stocks are still in the early phase
of bull run in the precious/base metal sector of the board
stock market.
Federal Reserve Refuses to Provide Records of Foreign Gold Holdings
Ken Silva
March 27th, 2024
Weeks after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell evaded a sitting congressman’s questions about the central bank’s foreign gold holdings, the Fed has also declined to comply with a Freedom of Information Act request for records about such holdings.
The Federal Reserve’s lack of transparency comes amidst reports that countries are removing their gold and other assets from the U.S. in the wake of the unprecedented Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. According to a 2023 Invesco survey, a “substantial percentage” of central banks expressed concern about how the U.S. and its allies froze nearly half of Russia’s $650 billion gold and forex reserves.
Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., asked Powell about the matter in a December letter, only to have the Fed chair respond last month with evasive non-answers, telling him that the Federal Reserve does not own gold but holds it as a custodian for other entities—a fact that the congressman presumably already knew.
Following Powell’s evasive response, Headline USA filed a FOIA request with the Fed for records reflecting how much gold the Federal Reserve Bank of New York currently holds in its vault, as well as records reflecting the ownership stake that each of FRBNY’s central bank/government clients have in that gold. The FOIA request also sought records about the Fed’s gold holdings prior to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
However, the Federal Reserve denied the FOIA request on Wednesday.
“Board staff consulted with staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (‘Reserve Bank’) and have been advised that such records, if they exist, would be Reserve Bank records, and consequently, not subject to the Board’s Rules Regarding Availability of Information,” the Fed said.
The Federal Reserve said that this publication could take its request to the New York Fed. However, that institution isn’t subject to FOIA.
Headline USA is working on an appeal.
Meanwhile, sound-money advocates are blasting the Fed’s lack of transparency.
“They’re just passing the buck to the New York Fed. The FRB could obtain the data from the New York Fed if it wanted to, and then could share it with you if it wanted to. The Fed chairman has already essentially told Representative Mooney that the Fed doesn’t want to disclose the information,” said Chris Powell, secretary-treasurer of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.
“If only other news organizations dared to ask such relevant questions about the secret operations of the Federal Reserve System,” he said.
According to Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, a large online precious metals dealer and depository based in Idaho, "The Fed doesn't want anyone to know that foreign governments and other central banks are yanking their gold from America's shores because it would reveal the folly of U.S. monetary and foreign policy."
www.moneymetals.com
Ken Silva
March 27th, 2024
Weeks after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell evaded a sitting congressman’s questions about the central bank’s foreign gold holdings, the Fed has also declined to comply with a Freedom of Information Act request for records about such holdings.
The Federal Reserve’s lack of transparency comes amidst reports that countries are removing their gold and other assets from the U.S. in the wake of the unprecedented Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. According to a 2023 Invesco survey, a “substantial percentage” of central banks expressed concern about how the U.S. and its allies froze nearly half of Russia’s $650 billion gold and forex reserves.
Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., asked Powell about the matter in a December letter, only to have the Fed chair respond last month with evasive non-answers, telling him that the Federal Reserve does not own gold but holds it as a custodian for other entities—a fact that the congressman presumably already knew.
Following Powell’s evasive response, Headline USA filed a FOIA request with the Fed for records reflecting how much gold the Federal Reserve Bank of New York currently holds in its vault, as well as records reflecting the ownership stake that each of FRBNY’s central bank/government clients have in that gold. The FOIA request also sought records about the Fed’s gold holdings prior to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
However, the Federal Reserve denied the FOIA request on Wednesday.
“Board staff consulted with staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (‘Reserve Bank’) and have been advised that such records, if they exist, would be Reserve Bank records, and consequently, not subject to the Board’s Rules Regarding Availability of Information,” the Fed said.
The Federal Reserve said that this publication could take its request to the New York Fed. However, that institution isn’t subject to FOIA.
Headline USA is working on an appeal.
Meanwhile, sound-money advocates are blasting the Fed’s lack of transparency.
“They’re just passing the buck to the New York Fed. The FRB could obtain the data from the New York Fed if it wanted to, and then could share it with you if it wanted to. The Fed chairman has already essentially told Representative Mooney that the Fed doesn’t want to disclose the information,” said Chris Powell, secretary-treasurer of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.
“If only other news organizations dared to ask such relevant questions about the secret operations of the Federal Reserve System,” he said.
According to Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, a large online precious metals dealer and depository based in Idaho, "The Fed doesn't want anyone to know that foreign governments and other central banks are yanking their gold from America's shores because it would reveal the folly of U.S. monetary and foreign policy."
Federal Reserve Refuses to Provide Records of Foreign Gold Holdings
Federal Reserve Refuses to Provide Records of Foreign Gold Holdings
www.moneymetals.com
A follow up on my comments six weeks ago to watch gold…they say a picture is worth a thousand words. Reports are that central banks worldwide are adding to gold holdings.
