How long do you give China to be as advanced as US in the Arm Race?

Tony321

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China is spending alot of money to buildup its military power lately as oppose to the US cutting back its military spending. For sure with the world financial crisis, it's much easier to spy and buy secrets with so many layoff workers from the specific area of research in hi-tech or military companies around the world. Also, with advances in hi tech technology it's easier to obtain information and speedup research & development for the Chinese.

Say in 10 years, what will China's military be compare to the Russian and the US.

http://www.haveeru.com.mv/english/details/26320/China%5C's_arms_buildup_shifting_balance_in_Asia:_US


China's arms buildup shifting balance in Asia: US
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| DATE: 2009-03-26 | PRINT | SHARE


WASHINGTON - China's pursuit of sophisticated weaponry is altering Asia's military balance and could be used to enforce its claims over disputed territories, the Pentagon said in a report Wednesday.

China has kept up major investments in its armed forces and made advances in hi-tech weaponry that outpace other countries in the region, the Defense Department said in its annual report to Congress on Beijing's military power.

Chinese "armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive military technologies, including those for anti-access/area-denial, as well as for nuclear, space, and cyber warfare, that are changing regional military balances and that have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region."

The military buildup has permitted China to help with international peacekeeping, humanitarian and counter-piracy missions, but could also allow it to "project power to ensure access to resources or enforce claims to disputed territories," the report said.

China was deploying more short-range missiles opposite Taiwan and developing military capabilities to deter the island's goal of "de jure independence," it said.

Beijing was moving in more missiles despite reduced tensions in the past year since Taiwan elected a new president, the report said.

Apart from its traditional focus on Taiwan, China was acquiring weaponry and aircraft that could enable it to carry out extended air operations into the South China Sea, the report said.

China claims sovereignty over the Spratly and Paracel island groups that are disputed by Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Taiwan.

The Defense Department confirmed in the document for the first time that the Chinese have built a new naval base at Hainan Island in the South China Sea that can serve its growing fleet of submarines, including those equipped with ballistic missiles.

"The port, which has underground facilities, would provide the PLA (People's Liberation Army) Navy with direct access to vital international sea lanes, and offers the potential for stealthy deployment of submarines into the deep waters of the South China Sea," the Pentagon said of the base, the subject of numerous media reports.

Earlier this month, the Chinese accused the United States of spying 75 miles (120 kilometres) south of Hainan Island after a naval standoff involving a US surveillance ship designed to track submarines.

Washington charged its ship was harassed in international waters by Chinese vessels that veered dangerously close to the USNS Impeccable. After the incident, the US Navy sent in a heavily-armed destroyer to escort the surveillance ship.

The Pentagon report was written before the standoff but a senior defense official said Chinese actions appeared to be "consistent" with their military's mission of safeguarding against possible threats to its sovereignty.

"China is very, very sensitive about what it perceives to be its territorial claims," the official, who asked not to be named, told reporters.

After the incident, China charged the US Navy had entered what it considers to be an "economic exclusion zone."

The Chinese military has also put a priority on cyber warfare and numerous intrusions last year against US government and other computer networks around the world "appear to have originated within" China, the report said.

The intrusions were focused on extracting information but "the accesses and skills required for these intrusions are similar to those necessary to conduct computer network attacks," the report said.

The report also said China had sold nearly seven billion dollars worth of conventional arms in the global market, with Pakistan as the main customer.

Beijing usually rejects Washington's annual assessment of its military as a distorted portrayal of spending that it says is for purely defensive purposes.

But China's lack of transparency in reporting military spending and security policy "poses risks to stability by creating uncertainty and increasing the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation," the report said.

Citing the report, the Defense Department called for more talks with China's military to reduce mutual suspicions. - AFP
 
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JohnLarue

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More like 5 years.
They have an economic edge now & all most unlimited human resources
China also has some very brilliant scientist & engineers
 

WoodPeckr

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The MIC, KBR, et al., thank Tricky Dick for opening up RED China which will now allow for another wondrous Arms Race....:rolleyes:
 

dragondick

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Chinese Military Power

JohnLarue said:
More like 5 years.
They have an economic edge now & all most unlimited human resources
China also has some very brilliant scientist & engineers
More likely 20 years because when China improves, so does USA.

The only consolation is that China does not have global domination ambitions, only regional.

The disputed islands were part of China until the recent 200 years when the Ching Dynasty & the governments in recent years were so weak that they were powerless to watch the islands being snaatched away.

Case in point, Okinwa (it is called Ryu Kyu Islands in Chinese) was part of China until the Japanese took it after the first Sino-Japanese war, subsequently Taiwan was given up.

After the WWII, Taiwan was returned but never Okinawa.

If & when China is strong enough & demands the return of Okinawa, then there will be real regional conflict which will surely drag in the US due to the bi-lateral military agreements.
 

Tony321

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dragondick said:
More likely 20 years because when China improves, so does USA.
I don't think so, for sure not 20 years because China will not have to do the original research instead they will spy and buy the current technology to catchup. Its like how Samsung makes LCD TV as good or better than Sharp. How did Hundai cars catchup so fast to Honda and Toyota. Not original research.

On the other hand you can't blame the have not nations for wanting to catchup, e.g Iran and North Korea wanting nuclear arms so that Israel and US willl leave them alone.. I don't have a gun but if I need a gun to get groceries then I will want to have a gun. Also whats so different from like Canadian Tire and Walmart (most retailers if they could) for wanting to have their own financial credit card department so that they can save and say Fu@k you Mastercard fees.
 

LatinDancer

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JohnLarue said:
More like 5 years.
They have an economic edge now & all most unlimited human resources
China also has some very brilliant scientist & engineers
Any discussion on China under-estimates the capabilities of their engineers and scientists. These folks have been educated in the best Western schools, Cal Tech, MIT. etc. One only needs to look into these labs as well as Silicon Valley labs to see that a lot of the researchers are Chinese. As for the financial resources, a billion dollars in China goes much further than a billion in the U.S. The pay scale is lower, and the overhead is lower. American defense contracts are such that a simple device cost thousands.
 

Tony321

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LatinDancer said:
Any discussion on China under-estimates the capabilities of their engineers and scientists. These folks have been educated in the best Western schools, Cal Tech, MIT. etc. One only needs to look into these labs as well as Silicon Valley labs to see that a lot of the researchers are Chinese. As for the financial resources, a billion dollars in China goes much further than a billion in the U.S. The pay scale is lower, and the overhead is lower. American defense contracts are such that a simple device cost thousands.
Well said, nothing but the truth, I notice that even when I was at University.
Now I see it in most Canadian Universities, the Chinese students from China usually group together and more and more students from China are here, some are here as exchange students, all paid for by the Chinese Gov.
 

papasmerf

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As I recall the Chinese had a Presidential ear with Clinton. How many secrets were passed under his watch? Only history will know.
 

Don

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Unless someone like Ron Paul or Dennis Kuninich become POTUS one day and drastically cut military funding, it will be a very long time before China can catch up.
 

JohnLarue

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Tony321 said:
On the other hand you can't blame the have not nations for wanting to catchup, e.g Iran and North Korea wanting nuclear arms so that Israel and US Will leave them alone.. .
The nuclear ambitions of these two states go much further than just wanting to be left alone.

Lets hope that in the case of Iran they keep the religious nut jobs away from from the launch codes when they finally get the technology.
 

JohnLarue

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Tony321 said:
Canadian Tire and Walmart (most retailers if they could) for wanting to have their own financial credit card department so that they can save and say Fu@k you Mastercard fees.
The retailers still pay mastercard / Visa fees for processing of the transactions
The appeal of providing customers a "Canadian Tire" or "Wal-Mart" Credit card is
1. The interest charges on outstanding balances
2. The "branding" and store loyalty factor i.e. it drives the punters into their stores and the punters buy more than they intended or would have if it was cash only
 

Tony321

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JohnLarue said:
The retailers still pay mastercard / Visa fees for processing of the transactions
The appeal of providing customers a "Canadian Tire" or "Wal-Mart" Credit card is
1. The interest charges on outstanding balances
2. The "branding" and store loyalty factor i.e. it drives the punters into their stores and the punters buy more than they intended or would have if it was cash only
Partly true but I think they don't have to pay MC/VISA processing fees and they are responsible for the outstanding balance. All MC/VISA will get is the transaction/swipe fee each time a card is used.
 

oldjones

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Shouldn't you show us the finish line before you pose that question? If the winner were to be decided by boots on the ground, China's got a head start now, and could likely make a good strong finish today, given that more of their soldiers have had more life experience doing without and still getting it done.

Eventually high-tech wears out, breaks down and needs high-tech repairs. Meantime, the guys in the rubber-tire sandals just keep coming and coming. Some image of helicopters on a rooftop keeps coming …

As long as the arms race is just stupid boys and their toys, and we can watch from the sidelines while we get on with real life, who cares? Yes, the US is ahead for now, but only because they temporarily have the cash (a chinese word originally). That won't be true forever. But again who cares?

The only arms race that matters is the one you win by killing the other guys, and what we should be worried about is how many morons there still are who think anyone really wins that sort.
 

fuji

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Tony321 said:
Say in 10 years, what will China's military be compare to the Russian and the US.
No, China is not even attempting to do that and so it won't happen. They'd have to try first.

China has concentrated almost all of its military spending on defensive and deterrent technologies: It builds subs and missiles that are only really effective near its own territorial waters, it's building a nuclear 2nd strike capability, and so on. They have not even attempted to construct a long-range strategic bomber, or an aircraft carrier, or methods of transporting or supplying troops at great distances--the kinds of things you would need to compete with the US globally.

In 5-10 years the Chinese military will probably have advanced to the point where it is capable of keeping the US military out of China's back yard but it is at least a decade or two beyond that before China would have the ability to project force around the world to third nations the way the United States does.

China will become (is already) the dominant power determining outcomes in its immediate area but will not have the abililty to interfere in far away nations the way the United States does.
 

fuji

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dragondick said:
Case in point, Okinwa (it is called Ryu Kyu Islands in Chinese) was part of China until the Japanese took it after the first Sino-Japanese war, subsequently Taiwan was given up.
You must read Chinese history books, since that's false.

The Ryukyu islands had a tributory relationship with the Chinese from the 1400's but the kingdom retained its own sovereignty. In 1609 the Japanese invaded the Ryukyu islands and forced them into a tributory relationship with Japan.

Here is where it's complicated:

To avoid a conflict with China from 1609 the Ryukyu kingdom had political independence and its own King but tributory relationships with BOTH China AND Japan from then on.

That does not map neatly into Western concepts of sovereignty. Essentially it was part of BOTH China AND Japan for that time--or you could also consider it independent of both. It was certainly not "part of China" in any sense that it was not also "part of Japan" at that time.

In 1872 the Japanese annexed the Ryukyu outright ending the tributory system with China and formally making it a part of Japan.

Also note that it is not "Okinawa" that China and Japan have a territorial dispute over, which refers to the entire Island chain, but only a few islands at one end of Okinawa called the Senkaku islands which are half way between Okinawa island (which is undisputedly part tof Japan) and Taiwan (which is undisputedly part of China).

There are a large number of Japanese citizens living on Okinawa and throughout the Okinawa island chain, but the disputed Senkaku islands are uninhabited.
 

JohnLarue

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Tony321 said:
Partly true but I think they don't have to pay MC/VISA processing fees and they are responsible for the outstanding balance. All MC/VISA will get is the transaction/swipe fee each time a card is used.
There is a bit more to it than that.
MC/ VISA receive more revenue than just the swipe fee.

1. They get the merchant discount for starters
(ie. you buy a $100 item on the card & the retailer only receives $97 to 99 from VISA).
Thats why most retailers prefer cash. (Try buying a $8,000 car on your credit card from a mechanic / dealer with VISA/MC available for repairs- they will not do it as they will lose 2-3%)

2. All merchants also pay a monthly fee to VISA/MC for the use of the service and rental of the swipe equipment. Thats why some retailers only have one or the other

3. There is undoubtedly a royalty payment to VISA/MC for co-branding the card & their national advertising.

This is why VISA/ MC was a good investment haven just prior to the recession.
They generate revenue on every purchase but do not take on credit risk in the form of outstanding balances. Wally-mart & Crappy Tire own the debt on their cards
 

CTSblues

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China has concentrated almost all of its military spending on defensive and deterrent technologies: It builds subs and missiles that are only really effective near its own territorial waters, it's building a nuclear 2nd strike capability, and so on.
This is consistent with my reading of Chinese history. For too long we like to project our Judia-Christian aggressiveness onto the Chinese, and then was surprised why they did not do what we expected to see.

Military technology is far from my areas of interest, so I can not help but wonder how shooting down one of their own satellites last year advances their defensive capabilities?
 

Tony321

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CTSblues said:
Military technology is far from my areas of interest, so I can not help but wonder how shooting down one of their own satellites last year advances their defensive capabilities?
By shooting down its aging weather satellite, China demonstrated to the world that it has fairly sophisticated anti-satellite missile technology. The US is almost totally depends on satellites as eyes and ears in war.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6923805

http://www.spacetoday.org/Satellites/YugoWarSats.html
 
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