I have totaly misread US politics

[train]

I watched some of the TV coverage of Super Tuesday and was shocked by some of the political commentary.

The early coverage included the reults from Georgia and Alabama where Huckleberry Hound was doing quite well. I think he may have won both states. The commentators were saying that McCain was benefiting from the fact that the Huckster and Romney were splitting the evangelical vote. They then proceeded to give actual stats on who was getting what portion.

Evangelical vote ? What exactly is that ? Followers of Billy Graham and Jimmy Swagert ? Does one register as an evangelical voter ? Are these the same people that lap up that Rush Limbaugh stuff or are they different?

It sounded almost as if the majority of these southern voters were this mysterious evangelical crowd.

How looney are these people ? I mean I thought the evangelists didn't exactly have a squeeky clean reputation and most saw right through them. Either it's a different crowd or I totally misread this up here in the frozen northland.

 

[lookingforitallthetime]

The pundits were using information gained from exit polls to analyze the numbers. The main purpose of exit polls as far as I can see is to give the pundits and news personalities something to talk about while they wait for the actual election results.

Of course, there is no way to analyze the evangelical breakdown of the vote.

 

[GOLEAFSGO67]

Its just a name really...

to describe a group of people. Likely religious, right winged, grass roots people, who want a representative for their cause!

Not really different than the black vote, or Women.

Of course the groups often intermingle...ie: black woman from the bible belt.....could fit into three differnt voting blocks.

The Bible bely certainly has some clout and they like to analyze who they are voting for. Don't read too much into it. Lots of voting blocks are analyzed.

It was nice to finally see them bring up the "White Male" stats. You don;t see that so often!!

 

[onthebottom]

the above 2 have it right.... I would be careful about generalizations about people because of what they belive.... we wouldn't assume all Catholics are child molestors....

OTB

 

[lookingforitallthetime]

to describe a group of people. Likely religious, right winged, grass roots people, who want a representative for their cause!

Not really differetn than the black vote, or Women.

The Bible bely certainly has some clout and they like to analyze who they are voting for. Don't read too much into it. Lots of voting blocks are analyzed

I think train's question was how can demographics be determined by the election results. The answer is they can't.

All the talk about splitting evangelical votes was based on information gained as a result of exit polls.

 

[train]

the above 2 have it right.... I would be careful about generalizations about people because of what they belive.... we wouldn't assume all Catholics are child molestors....

OTB

Ok I assume you think I was lumping all evangelists into the category of Jimmy Swaggert. Which I guess is an insult or it would be in my books because I have him down as nothing but a cheap con artist.

Since I think it's fair to say that we don't use the term north of the border perhaps someone could explain the difference to me between a normal run of the mill non-catholic Christian( Anglican, Baptist, Presbi, United Church ...whatever) and a Evangelist ?

I 'm not trying to be a wiseass here but since this seems to be characterized as a voting block it would be useful to have a better grasp of the term.

As a footnote - they seem to gather or and impute a lot of information from exit polls. Perhaps it's just me but if someone walked up to you after a secret ballot vote and asked you all these questions wouldn't your first reaction be to tell them it's none of their business ?

 

[lookingforitallthetime]

Since I think it's fair to say that we don't use the term north of the border perhaps someone could explain the difference to me between a normal run of the mill non-catholic Christian( Anglican, Baptist, Presbi, United Church ...whatever) and a Evangelist ?

Why does it matter?

I 'm not trying to be a wiseass here but since this seems to be characterized as a voting block it would be useful to have a better grasp of the term.

Maybe if you were tracking for one of the candidates.

they seem to gather or and impute a lot of information from exit polls. Perhaps it's just me but if someone walked up to you after a secret ballot vote and asked you all these questions wouldn't your first reaction be to tell them it's none of their business ?

As far as I know, you still have that right.

 

[train]

Why does it matter?

It matters because the analysts seem to think that this group has a significant impact on both the Presidential nominations and the eventually the Presidential election.

It matters because this Group, or what I presume to be this group , seem to be splitting the Republican party. McCain has called Jerry Falwell, and I paraphase because I don't remember the exact words, "mesengers of intolerence". As a reult of that he seems to have been blackballed by the Evangelical and ultra conservative factions of his party.

If a religious group, any religious group, truly wields this kind of political power I have concerns.

Maybe if you were tracking for one of the candidates.

I think for any outsider who has an interest in US politics these are all legitimate questions in order to understand what is going on. This one issue, if you believe the TV media that I saw, seems to be overshadowing the fact that while McCain is a socially only slightly right of centre of the road( I happen to like that), he is a self-admitted neophyte on economic issues at a time when the current guy had ridden the economy into the toilet.If the religious aspect is more important than the economic platforms then there must be some importance to it doesn't ther.

If you don't think they are important or are not interested fine, hey , that's your opinion and you are certainly entitled to it.

As far as I know, you still have that right.

The obvious implication , and I'm sorry you failed to grasp it , is aren't these exit polls suspect or does everyone happily volunteer this info. Hell ABC was calling a winner in some states after 2% of the polls were counted based on their "exit polls". Not only that they were slicing and dicing it between black and white, women and men and in some states between Evangelical and not.

 

[someone]

Evangelical vote ? What exactly is that ?

Here is one defintion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evangelicalism

 

[train]

Here is one defintion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evangelicalism

Thanks for this but I'm more confused than ever after reading the below excerpt , paticulary the sections in bold:

Others, particularly in the USA, engage in attempts at social improvement through political means. Evangelical activism might be expressed in literacy training, inner-city relief and food banks, adoption agencies, marriage counseling and spousal abuse mediation, day-care centers for children, and counsel and care for unwed mothers, or any number of other help and advocacy works. Popular perception is that evangelists are uniformly on the 'right' or 'conservative' side in political controversies such as those about abortion, and same-sex marriage or civil unions. This is not entirely the case, although there is indeed some correspondence between theological and religious conservatism on the one hand and social and political conservatism on the other.

 

[someone]

Thanks for this but I'm more confused than ever after reading the below excerpt , paticulary the sections in bold:

Others, particularly in the USA, engage in attempts at social improvement through political means. Evangelical activism might be expressed in literacy training, inner-city relief and food banks, adoption agencies, marriage counseling and spousal abuse mediation, day-care centers for children, and counsel and care for unwed mothers, or any number of other help and advocacy works. Popular perception is that evangelists are uniformly on the 'right' or 'conservative' side in political controversies such as those about abortion, and same-sex marriage or civil unions. This is not entirely the case, although there is indeed some correspondence between theological and religious conservatism on the one hand and social and political conservatism on the other.

To be honest, I never read that far down the link. When I think about evangelicals I think in terms of the almost ½ of the American population in polls that think the World as literally made in 7 days (i.e. Biblical inerrancy). Thus, when I think of the American usage of the term, I think of the following part of the link:

John C. Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron in Ohio, found in the 2004 American Religious Landscape Report[2] that despite many variations, evangelicals in the United States generally adhere to four core beliefs:
1. Biblical inerrancy
2. Salvation comes only through faith in Jesus and not good works (in particular the belief in atonement for sins at the cross and the resurrection of Christ) Scriptural references: John 14:6, Hebrews 9
3. Individuals (above an age of accountability) must personally trust in Jesus Christ for salvation.
4. All Christians are commissioned to evangelize and should be publicly baptized as a symbolic confession of faith. Scriptural reference: Matthew 28:19, Acts 1:8

Having lived in the American bible belt, I think this is a good discription, but others may have different connotations in mind.

 

[lookingforitallthetime]

It matters because the analysts seem to think that this group has a significant impact on both the Presidential nominations and the eventually the Presidential election.

If a religious group, any religious group, truly wields this kind of political power I have concerns.

I don't believe the group has any more or less influence today than it did 50 years ago. With the advances in technology allowing quick access to polling data, it's easier to fine tune the tracking to monitor certain demographics.

I think for any outsider who has an interest in US politics these are all legitimate questions in order to understand what is going on. This one issue, if you believe the TV media that I saw, seems to be overshadowing the fact that while McCain is a socially only slightly right of centre of the road( I happen to like that), he is a self-admitted neophyte on economic issues at a time when the current guy had ridden the economy into the toilet.If the religious aspect is more important than the economic platforms then there must be some importance to it doesn't ther.

If you don't think they are important or are not interested fine, hey , that's your opinion and you are certainly entitled to it.

The south (in particular, the bible belt) has traditionally supported the GOP. The reason is the Republican Party more closely aligns itself with issues important to evangelicals (pro-life, family values, traditional marriages etc.).

It's not that I don't think it's important, It's just that I'm not surprised pundits and campaigns are tracking the information. It makes even more sense this year considering the party's front runner has a more progressive social view than the traditional GOP candidate.

The obvious implication , and I'm sorry you failed to grasp it, is aren't these exit polls suspect or does everyone happily volunteer this info. Hell ABC was calling a winner in some states after 2% of the polls were counted based on their "exit polls". Not only that they were slicing and dicing it between black and white, women and men and in some states between Evangelical and not.

All polls are suspect, that's why they have a margin of error.

Using trends to call the winner early isn't anything new either. This is also done here in Canada. Many federal elections had the outcomes predicted within a half hour of the polls closing (sometimes sooner).

 

[train]

Using trends to call the winner early isn't anything new either. This is also done here in Canada. Many federal elections had the outcomes predicted within a half hour of the polls closing (sometimes sooner).

Sort of makes me want to see another Dewey situation someday

 

[lookingforitallthetime]

Sort of makes me want to see another Dewey situation someday

We probably never will in today's computer age. In 1948, if you had polling information a month old, it was considered current.

 

[Aardvark154]

The Princeton University Survey Research Center includes as Evangelical denominations: The Assemblies of God,The Church of the Brethren, Southern Baptist Convention, African Methodist Episcopal, African Methodist Episcopal Zion; the Church of Christ, Churches of God in Christ, Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod, National Baptist Church, National Progressive Baptist Church, the Presbyterian Church in America and also various Pentecostal denominations, as well as Independent Baptist Churches.

With no intention of sounding condescending it’s important to make sure one doesn’t confuse Evangelical with Evangelism or Evangelistic.

 

[Aardvark154]

The south (in particular, the bible belt) has traditionally supported the GOP. The reason is the Republican Party more closely aligns itself with issues important to evangelicals (pro-life, family values, traditional marriages etc.).

Only post LBJ. Prior to that since Andrew Jackson, and certainly post reconstruction the South was a solid Democratic Party stronghold. Since the early 80's the South has largely hijacked the Republican Party.

 

[frasier]

Back to topic at hand.

This is a very, very unusual election cycle.
None of the old rules seem to apply. Short
answer, noone knows what's going on.

Not odd at all, here is why:

McCain
Although a centrist he has no support from the conservative base, which in essence splits the Republican party

Rommney
Somewhat represents the conservative base, but most christian conservative can't deal with the fact that he is a Mormon.

Huckabee
Another wannabe conservative, that aside from the fact that he is a southern boy has very little other credentials.


Obama
Young dynamic, but no experience. Talks a good game but offers very little concrete solutions.

Hillary,
Despite her so-called experience, she is very polarizing within the party. To make matters worse she alienated most of African Americans, which means she even less support in the South.
However due to the lack of a viable Republican candidate in combination with the anti Bush sentiment she still has the best chance to be next Potus. Sooner or later the Obama supporter will be looking for the meat in his proposals.


Given all the the above i am not surprised, none of the candidates has really inspired me.....we are chosing (again) the lesser of two evils.

 

[Aardvark154]

Since I think it's fair to say that we don't use the term north of the border perhaps someone could explain the difference to me between a normal run of the mill non-catholic Christian( Anglican, Baptist, Presbi, United Church ...whatever) and a Evangelist ?

Thanks for this but I'm more confused than ever after reading the below excerpt , paticulary the sections in bold:

Others, particularly in the USA, engage in attempts at social improvement through political means. Evangelical activism might be expressed in literacy training, inner-city relief and food banks, adoption agencies, marriage counseling and spousal abuse mediation, day-care centers for children, and counsel and care for unwed mothers, or any number of other help and advocacy works.

I think both questions go to what I said three above this namely the distinction between the terms Evangelical and Evangelism or Evangelistic at least as used in the U.S. Your second comment goes more to the later than to the former. While the former is more interrelated with ideas such as biblical inerrancy, premillennialism and dispensationalism. (look up John N. Darby)

 

[lookingforitallthetime]

Only post LBJ. Prior to that since Andrew Jackson, and certainly post reconstruction the South was a solid Democratic Party stronghold. Since the early 80's the South has largely hijacked the Republican Party.

Correct however, in the 60's, many southern Democrats would be considered right of John McCain.

 

[onthebottom]

Hummm. Be careful.

Why, do I need to keep my kids away from you? I didn't think your BDS had gone that far.

OTB