Aug 12, 2025
The provisional peace deal signed August 8 at the White House by US President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev is a potential diplomatic thunderbolt that transforms the Caucasus, giving the United States the upper hand in what traditionally has been Russia’s backyard and Iran’s playground. But it is important to understand that the August 8 Joint Declaration is merely the end of the beginning: there is a long way to go before the aspirations outlined in the document are fulfilled.
Though the three signatories to the Joint Declaration touted it as transformative, marking the dawn of an era of “eternal peace,” the document’s provisions are vague and non-binding. In effect, it is a memorandum of understanding, not a contract.
Pashinyan and Aliyev “initialed” what was described as a “peace agreement.” In fact, what they signed was a pledge to keep on talking about a lasting settlement, adding little to what the two had already stated many times previously.
“We acknowledged the need to continue further actions to achieve the signing and ultimate ratification of the [Peace] Agreement, and emphasized the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace between our two countries,” the Joint Declaration reads.
It is worth noting that the Joint Declaration does not mention the main obstacle believed to be preventing the signing of a peace treaty — Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia amend its constitution to unequivocally recognize Baku’s sovereignty over the Nagorno Karabakh territory, reconquered by Azerbaijani forces in 2023.
The Joint Declaration does appear to potentially overcome another major obstacle — Azerbaijan’s insistence on a corridor between its mainland and its Nakhchivan exclave providing unhindered access for Azerbaijani citizens. The solution is American management of the corridor.
But the American-managed route cannot yet be considered a sure thing. The Joint Declaration acknowledges as much, stating that US and Armenian officials merely express their “determination to pursue efforts in good faith to achieve this goal in the most expeditious manner.” Key operational details remain up in the air, and there is no timeline for negotiations.
“This [August 8] summit was a step forward in the peace process, but the agreements reached leave a lot of questions unanswered. Much of what was agreed at the White House was a repackaging of things that Armenia and Azerbaijan had already agreed in principle,” Joshua Kucera, a senior analyst for Crisis Group, said in a statement.
“Some of Baku’s and Yerevan’s motivation was surely the desire to get on Trump’s good side by giving him a role,” Kucera added.
oilprice.com
- The August 8 Joint Declaration between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitated by the US, is a non-binding memorandum of understanding for continued peace talks, not a final peace treaty.
- A key element of the deal involves a proposed American-managed transit corridor (TRIPP) between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave, which faces significant operational uncertainties and no clear timeline.
- The agreement is expected to intensify geopolitical tensions, as both Russia and Iran view increased US involvement in the South Caucasus as a direct threat to their regional influence and have vowed to resist it.
The provisional peace deal signed August 8 at the White House by US President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev is a potential diplomatic thunderbolt that transforms the Caucasus, giving the United States the upper hand in what traditionally has been Russia’s backyard and Iran’s playground. But it is important to understand that the August 8 Joint Declaration is merely the end of the beginning: there is a long way to go before the aspirations outlined in the document are fulfilled.
Though the three signatories to the Joint Declaration touted it as transformative, marking the dawn of an era of “eternal peace,” the document’s provisions are vague and non-binding. In effect, it is a memorandum of understanding, not a contract.
Pashinyan and Aliyev “initialed” what was described as a “peace agreement.” In fact, what they signed was a pledge to keep on talking about a lasting settlement, adding little to what the two had already stated many times previously.
“We acknowledged the need to continue further actions to achieve the signing and ultimate ratification of the [Peace] Agreement, and emphasized the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace between our two countries,” the Joint Declaration reads.
It is worth noting that the Joint Declaration does not mention the main obstacle believed to be preventing the signing of a peace treaty — Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia amend its constitution to unequivocally recognize Baku’s sovereignty over the Nagorno Karabakh territory, reconquered by Azerbaijani forces in 2023.
The Joint Declaration does appear to potentially overcome another major obstacle — Azerbaijan’s insistence on a corridor between its mainland and its Nakhchivan exclave providing unhindered access for Azerbaijani citizens. The solution is American management of the corridor.
But the American-managed route cannot yet be considered a sure thing. The Joint Declaration acknowledges as much, stating that US and Armenian officials merely express their “determination to pursue efforts in good faith to achieve this goal in the most expeditious manner.” Key operational details remain up in the air, and there is no timeline for negotiations.
“This [August 8] summit was a step forward in the peace process, but the agreements reached leave a lot of questions unanswered. Much of what was agreed at the White House was a repackaging of things that Armenia and Azerbaijan had already agreed in principle,” Joshua Kucera, a senior analyst for Crisis Group, said in a statement.
“Some of Baku’s and Yerevan’s motivation was surely the desire to get on Trump’s good side by giving him a role,” Kucera added.
Iran and Russia Vow to Block U.S. Caucasus Ambitions | OilPrice.com
A new peace declaration between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered by the US, aims to transform the Caucasus, but faces significant obstacles from Russia, Iran, and unresolved internal issues.
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