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Is it possible to time the stock market?

sprite09

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That is proof that I am a troll? That is proof that I am aware of the situation and that I am prudent. The situation in April 2023 was that the governments were tightening up the markets and preparing the population by announcing interest rate increases. They had to do this to stop or slow inflation. If I was truly a troll I would not be able to give mealy mouth weasels or U-men a rebuttal. The government was relentless and continued the interest rate increases and did slow inflation.



sprite09,

Are you all in or too scared to move because you are not aware of the true situation on the market? Are you the sort that collects your comfortable 4.5% on his GICs? I prefer to collect the 4.5% weekly or twice weekly. Go back to the recent BCE thread where I was challenged on March 19, the next day trading session I was able to achieve a 4.22% increase.. My record speaks for its self, show me your abilities.
nah, im in crypto....I'm way above your returns

you're all cash back then yet you say you're making 4 percent weekly ...right

All the "experts" were calling for lower lows in 2023 , yet it was one of the best years had you just been in the market the entire time

i doubt you outperformed the market that year and consistently over the long run
 

Ceiling Cat

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nah, im in crypto....I'm way above your returns
you're all cash back then yet you say you're making 4 percent weekly ...right
All the "experts" were calling for lower lows in 2023 , yet it was one of the best years had you just been in the market the entire time
i doubt you outperformed the market that year and consistently over the long run
Are you in crypto or are you a U-man talking crapto. We have yet to see your abilities.

Yes, I was all cash in April 2023. As were all investors that knew the situation, many financial institutions had trimmed their holdings for the times. I never said I made 4% in any specific week. I only used the example of when I was challenged in the BCE thread Page #7 Post #121 and made predictions Post #122 and have these predictions realized on the next trading session @ a 4.22% gain on post #125. In this single day example can you assume that I only make 4% weekly?


In 2023 the government ( s ) were attempting to suppress inflation and pre warned the world economy that higher interest were coming. All informed investors went all cash as did the big financial institutions. They optimized their portfolios for opportunities in the future. When interest rates were raised the economy slowed but inflation stopped rising as well. The stock market did surge towards the end of the year when interest rates stopped rising. Portfolios that had cash were able to take advantage of the end of the year surge. I can not say it was one of the best years, but those that put themselves in the right position was able to make gains when stocks started to rise. So, my choice to be in cash in April 2023 was a prudent one.




sprite09,


You seem to have a lot of anger in you. I have to wonder if you are just one of the angry U-men from the legions of U-men out there. Or are you just one U-man with multiple personalities?

nah, im in crypto....I'm way above your returns
BTW - Do not forget to show us your magnificent crypto skills
 
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sprite09

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Aug 10, 2020
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Are you in crypto or are you a U-man talking crapto. We have yet to see your abilities.

Yes, I was all cash in April 2023. As were all investors that knew the situation, many financial institutions had trimmed their holdings for the times. I never said I made 4% in any specific week. I only used the example of when I was challenged in the BCE thread Page #7 Post #121 and made predictions Post #122 and have these predictions realized on the next trading session @ a 4.22% gain on post #125. In this single day example can you assume that I only make 4% weekly?


In 2023 the government ( s ) were attempting to suppress inflation and pre warned the world economy that higher interest were coming. All informed investors went all cash as did the big financial institutions. They optimized their portfolios for opportunities in the future. When interest rates were raised the economy slowed but inflation stopped rising as well. The stock market did surge towards the end of the year when interest rates stopped rising. Portfolios that had cash were able to take advantage of the end of the year surge. I can not say it was one of the best years, but those that put themselves in the right position was able to make gains when stocks started to rise. So, my choice to be in cash in April 2023 was a prudent one.




sprite09,


You seem to have a lot of anger in you. I have to wonder if you are just one of the angry U-men from the legions of U-men out there. Or are you just one U-man with multiple personalities?



BTW - Do not forget to show us your magnificent crypto skills
LOL, the markets rallied for pretty much the entire year except Q3 which is typical. As a supposed trading genius, you should know that, ahahahha.

Anger? Nah, just saying how it is--you think your system outperforms the market consistently over time, but just by 2023 alone I know it's utter BS.

You don't need "magnificent" skills (crypto or stocks); any experienced person in markets would have told you 2022 was a fantastic buying opportunity yet people like yourself were calling for Doomsday in 2023 (think you used the term "shitstorm"). Simply dollar-cost averaged in 2022 and 2023 and have essentially 7xed thus far. Cycle ain't over yet so more to come.

Have fun with your systems.
 

Ceiling Cat

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[QUOTE="sprite09,
LOL, the markets rallied for pretty much the entire year except Q3 which is typical. As a supposed trading genius, you should know that, ahahahha.

Anger? Nah, just saying how it is--you think your system outperforms the market consistently over time, but just by 2023 alone I know it's utter BS.

You don't need "magnificent" skills (crypto or stocks); any experienced person in markets would have told you 2022 was a fantastic buying opportunity yet people like yourself were calling for Doomsday in 2023 (think you used the term "shitstorm"). Simply dollar-cost averaged in 2022 and 2023 and have essentially 7xed thus far. Cycle ain't over yet so more to come.

Have fun with your systems.
[/QUOTE]



That is one hell of a fantasy you got there, just make sure you keep it in your head. Only in you mind in dimentia 5 did the markets rally the entire year. The markets were flat as interest rates were rising. Only in your distorted Bizarro world you do not need experience and skills in the crypto and stock markets to make a profit. So, in your addled mind you can dollar cost average for 24 months and 7X your portfolio? This must be the way you posted your stock purchases and came up with a 20% gain. I calculated your postings and there is a 20% loss, but this is in the real world.

Show us how you 7X your money in 24 months. ( The cycle is not yet over, it may e more than 7X )
My guess is that sprite09 will disappear in the wind like the odiferous greasy flatulence that he is.


 
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sprite09

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Aug 10, 2020
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[QUOTE="sprite09,
LOL, the markets rallied for pretty much the entire year except Q3 which is typical. As a supposed trading genius, you should know that, ahahahha.

Anger? Nah, just saying how it is--you think your system outperforms the market consistently over time, but just by 2023 alone I know it's utter BS.

You don't need "magnificent" skills (crypto or stocks); any experienced person in markets would have told you 2022 was a fantastic buying opportunity yet people like yourself were calling for Doomsday in 2023 (think you used the term "shitstorm"). Simply dollar-cost averaged in 2022 and 2023 and have essentially 7xed thus far. Cycle ain't over yet so more to come.

Have fun with your systems.

That is one hell of a fantasy you got there, just make sure you keep it in your head. Only in you mind in dimentia 5 did the markets rally the entire year. The markets were flat as interest rates were rising. Only in your distorted Bizarro world you do not need experience and skills in the crypto and stock markets to make a profit. So, in your addled mind you can dollar cost average for 24 months and 7X your portfolio? This must be the way you posted your stock purchases and came up with a 20% gain. I calculated your postings and there is a 20% loss, but this is in the real world.

Show us how you 7X your money in 24 months. ( The cycle is not yet over, it may e more than 7X )
My guess is that sprite09 will disappear in the wind like the odiferous greasy flatulence that he is.



[/QUOTE]

AHAHAHA, dementia (nice spelling, btw)? And you say "markets"; did you not notice the BIGGEST and MOST IMPORTANT one? The US market, which has had an amazing run since the Oct 2022 lows, despite STICKY INFLATION, BANK FAILURES (e.g., first republic, SVB, etc.), and HIGH RATES. Nikkei and Footsie did quite well in 2023, as well.

China gave back its gain by the end of the year (flat), but even though a market timer / trader would have been able to take advantage of the ebbs and flows (esp since there was a clear double top, crests at mid May and beg of August).

Your description fits the TSX, because you're confined to your little Canadian bubble. This is why you can't believe someone had multiples over 24 months. It happens in STOCKS, too, but you just haven't noticed cause you're confined to the Canadian market. Have you not heard of NVIDIA? META? COINB? ARM? SOUN?

And, I already told you how I did it--I DOLLAR-COST AVERAGED, you just don't know how hard crypto can rip (and there's more to just bitcoin in crypto, FYI, so don't counter with "bitcoin only did a ~5x since the bottom until now.").

LOL, I just looked at the TSX chart (attached)--that was a trader's / market timer's DREAM. It was essentially channeling the entire year until the end of Oct. If you weren't playing the channel (where you just buy at support, short/sell at resistance, rinse and repeat), there were other obvious TA patterns:


-Rising wedge from mid March to mid April (bearish, hence the fall thereafter)
-Inverse head and shoulders breaks the neckline mid July (bullish, small rally)
-Inverse head and shoulders again, but fails to break above the neckline and thus the drop mid September-
-Double bottom , troughs at beg Oct and end of Oct, breaks the resistance that's the top of the middle of the "W" and thus the massive rally after

You're probably gonna spout off about your system being "only picking MACRO tops and bottoms, not local, system is beyond the typical technical analysis, blah blah blah." Plus, your supposed amazing system should be adaptable to ANY STOCK market at MIMIMUM since TA is applicable to ALL trading markets (stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, commodities, etc.).
 

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Ceiling Cat

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Feb 25, 2009
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You PM me and you tell me that you have high rise apartment buildings, in the same PM you ask me if I know how to get keys for the pay washing machine coin boxes. I tell you no, I do not know how to get these keys, because the properties I use to own were 8 units or less. I think you wanted to finance your hobbying by thieving loonies from the scanty panty washers.

Then you start posting your meager stock purchases and claim to be 20% up. when in fact according to your own postings you were 20% down.

Now you claim to be making huge profits in crypto. If you are talking about NVIDIA and META. Then you tell me you rely on chart patterns, I have an idea of how much you know and how much you make/lose. The big money in any of the FAANG stocks are history. Chart patterns are not a sure thing, I do not find the reliable at all.

You have exposed yourself of who you are years ago. Starting with ESCO you have multiple names and post all day in well into the night. ( thus, the moniker U-man )

As for my method to pick stocks, I have not spouted off nor made the slightest mention of how I do it. Maybe I should invest a small amount in crypto as you suggest. First I will test my methods before I dive in. If crypto is as lucrative as you claim it is for you, then with my methods I can
whoop any U-man any trading day of the week, run circles around him and kick him in the ass every time I orbit him but at turbo speeds.
 

sprite09

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Aug 10, 2020
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You PM me and you tell me that you have high rise apartment buildings, in the same PM you ask me if I know how to get keys for the pay washing machine coin boxes. I tell you no, I do not know how to get these keys, because the properties I use to own were 8 units or less. I think you wanted to finance your hobbying by thieving loonies from the scanty panty washers.

Then you start posting your meager stock purchases and claim to be 20% up. when in fact according to your own postings you were 20% down.

Now you claim to be making huge profits in crypto. If you are talking about NVIDIA and META. Then you tell me you rely on chart patterns, I have an idea of how much you know and how much you make/lose. The big money in any of the FAANG stocks are history. Chart patterns are not a sure thing, I do not find the reliable at all.

You have exposed yourself of who you are years ago. Starting with ESCO you have multiple names and post all day in well into the night. ( thus, the moniker U-man )

As for my method to pick stocks, I have not spouted off nor made the slightest mention of how I do it. Maybe I should invest a small amount in crypto as you suggest. First I will test my methods before I dive in. If crypto is as lucrative as you claim it is for you, then with my methods I can
whoop any U-man any trading day of the week, run circles around him and kick him in the ass every time I orbit him but at turbo speeds.
Honestly, you're confusing me with someone else if you're serious.

OK, try crypto, I honestly hope you succeed, because there's WAY more money to be made in it than stocks IMO. Crypto, like commodities, trade 24/7, so you better implement more strict more risk management (especially since Asia, esp South Korean, trades crypto heavily).

I'll trade from time to time if it's clear, but ultimately a DCA (dollar-cost average) in and DCA out works the best in IMO. Nobody can nail the bottom and top , especially top because there's no precedence in a bull market when an ATH is made and markets can stay more irrational than you can stay solvent.
 

Ceiling Cat

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Re : Posting at 1:25 A.M.

Phil C.,

I see you still posting all day and well into the night, but now you can distribute your postings among several names.
 
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Ceiling Cat

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Peter Lynch answers that question perfectly.
He gave a politicians answer, which is no answer. @16:50 he said that Alan Greenspan can not pick interest rates 3 years out, but he can tell you what interest rates will be in three months. I say it is that same with stocks. You can more accurately predict stock prices in the next three days than you can predict where they will be in three months.


@
 
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Scopez

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He gave a politicians answer, which is no answer. @16:50 he said that Alan Greenspan can not pick interest rates 3 years out, but he can tell you what interest rates will be in three months. I say it is that same with stocks. You can more accurately predict stock prices in the next three days than you can predict where they will be in three months.


@
Fitting, considering he was in a room full of congress people.

Being able to time the stock market is heavily predicated on being able to predict interest rates. He answers both your question, and the interest rates at 14:50.
 

Ceiling Cat

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Fitting, considering he was in a room full of congress people.

Being able to time the stock market is heavily predicated on being able to predict interest rates. He answers both your question, and the interest rates at 14:50.
My definition of timing the market is to buy low and sell high. The interest rates most likely stays the same. I do not use interest rates in my predictions. ( a prediction is a statement of probability not a sure outcome )

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Ceiling Cat

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Feb 25, 2009
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My definition of timing the market is to buy low and sell high. The interest rates most likely stays the same. I do not use interest rates in my predictions. ( a prediction is a statement of probability not a sure outcome )

Pre open April 12

XTRA @ $ 0.66
WELL @ $ 3.69
ECN @ $ 1.90

As I said, a prediction is a statement of probability not a sure outcome. The only sure thing about the stock market is that nothing is sure. The trick is to have right predictions more than you have wrong ones. In the last week all FAANG stocks dropped about 12%, and 75% of the stock market went lower in price. May above predictions did not achieve a profit, but if I had invested I would have put a 4-5% stop on each stock. A bad CPI report ( U.S. ) and the troubles in the middle east sent stock prices tumbling. That is the nature of the game.
 
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