Conservatives are polling at 5% in that riding - no wonder you are happy ! Interesting that the poll which shows the NDP in the lead was commissioned by ... the NDP. Still to early to predict but I'd much rather have my riding represented by some one with a voice in the government instead of an obscure backbencher. You got to be really lousy to loose your own riding.
If you look at the previous election results, the only reason Trudeau won was the NDP and Bloc splitting the anti Trudeau vote, this time the Bloc isn't a serious player in the riding allowing the NDP to consolidate most of the anti Trudeau vote, so yes I absolutely believe it.