If bluelaser is around, I would love to hear his take on why the plane would fly south.
There are two credible scenarios for the plane going off course:
1. Fire or something else, that had the pilots steer towards the nearest landing strip. However, they were overcome by smoke and the plane continued in its set direction west.
2. The pilots or somebody else took control of the plane. Why then fly towards nothing??
I'm not a big fan of the fire theory for two reasons. Firstly, the fire theory attempts to explain why the plane flew for 7+ more hours after losing communication. It implies the pilots didn't deliberately try to hide or crash. Now, as a pilot, if my bird catches on fire, is it possible that I go for the nearest airport? Absolutely. Not just possible, I will. If fire threatens the safety of my aircraft, I don't even care if it's an airport. I'll land on the highway directly underneath if it means I can't get to the ground and get my passengers out safely. Remember, my job might include aspects like making sure we don't fly in turbulence to keep you comfortable, make sure the air conditioning/heating is working properly so you're comfortable, reassure you that oil leaking from the engine is perfectly normal (even if the leakage is excessive) to keep you calm and feeling safe, not alarm you when something unusual happens, get you from point A to point B on time, etc. Those are all very important parts of my job. But the #1 aspect of my work, the part that is far and away the most critical task I have, is to keep you safe. And pilots have done extra-ordinary things even when there was no hope. Look at Pacific Airlines 314 that crashed in Cranbrook. The pilots broke bones in their feet and hands manipulating the controls with all their energy despite the fact that they knew they'd never be able to control it.
So if something major like a fire breaks out, a severe one, the kind that could kill me or my crew or render the aircraft uncontrollable, I'm going to initiate an emergency descent for the nearest landable surface, or head towards it if there isn't one beneath me. Now, most times we don't just see a fire, we see a little smoke. So you have some time, critical failure isn't imminent. But the proposed theory is that the fire was sudden and incapacitated the crew.
So let's just say I'm in a plane and a fire disables all my communications rapidly... I don't turn and fly out over an unmonitored ocean (and pilots know where radar coverage is on the routes they fly because we're always told when we are being radar monitored and when we leave radar coverage), I know I had communications and radar coverage 12 minutes ago so I make a 180 and head back where I came from. This, of course, presumes the fire remains critical and I can't continue. If I can continue, I don't change course, I continue on my routing because that's what air traffic control expects me to do and the only way to be sure another plane won't be flying through the cloud towards me and we run into each other. But in an emergency, I'd turn for radar coverage.
But let's imagine under the scenario I enter a waypoint to the nearest airport and the autopilot starts to turn for it. Great, now I pull out the checklist....and suddenly all the crew are rendered unconscious from the smoke. The premise of this theory is that the plane then, all on it's own, zigzagged and turned here and there and ended up flying towards Australia. To which I wonder, "Has the guy who came up with this theory ever used a GPS?" If I enter a waypoint and don't get back to clean up the route, once it reaches the waypoint, the aircraft will continue the routing. If it's a waypoint, it'll turn to the next one, which is back on course. And then this crew-less aircraft shows up over Beijing, because that's the route it was programmed for.
The theory that it was a fire is plausible. Absolutely. The theory that the fire caused them to set a waypoint and then knocked them out and that's how the plane ended up headed for the south pole makes no sense at all. The other thing to consider is how does an aircraft that's on fire so badly that all communications are knocked out manage to overwhelm the crew....and then put itself out. That's a laughable theory.
Now if you discount the popular theory that's being spread around the internet and suggest maybe it didn't fly down by Australia but rather turns towards the Strait of Malacca and crashed somewhere there and we just haven't recovered debris yet, then the idea of a fire and a turn towards a landing strip makes sense.
For your second theory, I have no idea why anyone would take the plane off course at all except for - terrorism, suicide, emergency. I don't like the suicide theory. Maybe I'm biased and want to believe what they say about the crew, and I know it's happened before, but the idea that a pilot would kill 239 people doesn't sit right with me. I mean, he wants money for his family, so obviously he's not a selfish guy angry at the world. He obviously is capable of empathy and feelings. Why would anyone capable of empathy kill 239 to benefit a handful of others? Especially when you consider he's a pilot at a major airline, he flies wide-body jets transoceanic. He makes good money. If it was someone else, then all bets are off. People do weird things. We may never know what their rationale was.
Well, to my knowledge they haven't confirmed that the target that the Malaysian military saw over the Strait of Malacca was actually MH370. It's not like military radar can deduce the who it is by magic. It would be a prime target only, a blob of returned radar energy. There's really no way to confirm it was MH370 unless you can correlate that with something else. Id