Putin has fallen into the Dictator trap

[downbound123]

Very interesting read

Vladimir Putin Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap

Reality doesn’t conform to the theory of the rational, calculating despot who can play the long game.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[richaceg]

He could be right...

 

[KDK13]

Fantastic article. Brian Klaas is a first rate scholar.

Upshot is the means of becoming a dictator results in only sycophants surrounding you (lest you upset the boss and find yourself falling out a window). Thus dictators never get accurate information, and make huge blunders but cannot self correct because no one will say its a blunder until it gets so disastrous someone kills you.

This is why some of us who've studied autocracy have such fear and loathing for Trump. He wishes to create exactly this model of governance for USA - surrounds himself with yes men and sycophants and fires those who disagree (vs Abraham Lincoln model of "team of rivals"). All right wingers and ardent left winger communists should read this article.

 

[Frankfooter]

Good article, seems to apply to the GOP these days as well.

 

[shack]

Very interesting read

Indeed it is. Thanks.

 

[Darts]

I read somewhere that Dictator Putin has a 70%+ approval rating. That is a terribly low rating for a dictator. I vague remember Dictator Saddam got a 99.9% approval rating before the U.S. "invaded".

 

[Frankfooter]

This is 2 years old, but gives you a sense of how popular Putin is.

 

[medalllione]

I read somewhere that Dictator Putin has a 70%+ approval rating. That is a terribly low rating for a dictator. I vague remember Dictator Saddam got a 99.9% approval rating before the U.S. "invaded".

We are talking heavily fudged numbers sprinkled with a veneer of respectability.

 

[escortsxxx]

We are talking heavily fudged numbers sprinkled with a veneer of respectability.

Well there is two kind of fudging. The first is you get x result and claim y. So 80 becomes say 90.
The other is where you make it clear you be killed or punished in some way if you don't vote the way Mr. Dogmatic wants. I suspect that its mostly version two in both cases. In North Korea its a heavy dose of both.
Putin until recently keep his tyranny to important people rather than the average citizen. The can't use the phrase war or go to jail is something new for him.

 

[oil&gas]

I have no idea if Putin has fallen into the trap as related in
the link in the OP. But I suspect the Ukraine war is Putin's
trap set for the purpose of bringing global sanction on Russia's
exports of energy and other natural resources. Blowup of
prices in oil, natural gas, fertilisers, copper, iron pellets, nickel,
aluminium, uranium ........... triggered by the war is what Putin
wanted as excuse for later reverse-sanction of the world as
well as for enrichment of his own pocket. I suspect that Putin's
henchmen wealth managers have already scored huge gains
in international financial markets from trading stocks and
commodities in the natural resource sector.

 

[escortsxxx]

I have no idea if Putin has fallen into the trap as related in
the link in the OP. But I suspect the Ukraine war is Putin's
trap set for the purpose of bringing global sanction on Russia's
exports of energy and other natural resources. Blowup of
prices in oil, natural gas, fertilisers, copper, iron pellets, nickel,
aluminium, uranium ........... triggered by the war is what Putin
wanted as excuse for later reverse-sanction of the world as
well as for enrichment of his own pocket. I suspect that Putin's
henchmen wealth managers have already scored huge gains
in international financial markets from trading stocks and
commodities in the natural resource sector.

Good point. And if Putin owns some of the arms sector he can make a killing as well. It possible the whole war is a get rich (more rich?) scheme.

 

[HungSowel]

Thus far this special military operation has been an embarrassment to Putin and the Russian military. Escalation is the only path Putin has and thus he will escalate, if he can not do it by conventional means then he will do it by unconventional means. Poison gas, tactical nukes, biological warfare are all on the table for him to use and he will.

 

[escortsxxx]

This is 2 years old, but gives you a sense of how popular Putin is.

Amazing funny. Thanks

 

[Frankfooter]

Good point. And if Putin owns some of the arms sector he can make a killing as well. It possible the whole war is a get rich (more rich?) scheme.

Unless of course he falls out of a window.

I'm sure Putin has more to worry about those below him now than Ukraine or sanctions.
10k dead, 15k injured....

 

[escortsxxx]

Thus far this special military operation has been an embarrassment to Putin and the Russian military. Escalation is the only path Putin has and thus he will escalate, if he can not do it by conventional means then he will do it by unconventional means. Poison gas, tactical nukes, biological warfare are all on the table for him to use and he will.

I disagree. If Putin sits back and uses only missiles, he can level one city after another. Its not his goal to do "scorched earth" but it allows him a "win" or pyrrhic win but ending Ukraine as a culture and nation at the cost of little.

The other stuff is far too risky and its on the table but not his only option.

 

[HungSowel]

I disagree. If Putin sits back and uses only missiles, he can level one city after another. Its not his goal to do "scorched earth" but it allows him a "win" or pyrrhic win but ending Ukraine as a culture and nation at the cost of little.

The other stuff is far too risky and its on the table but not his only option.

Not missiles, they are expensive. Putin uses blind fire rockets and artillery to level cities, he has already used those in Mariupol to turn it to rubble and he is trying to do the same to kyiv. Russian artillery and rockets have about a 20 mile range and right now they are setup at a distance just close enough to hit the outer edge of kyiv. Russia keeps trying to move their artillery and rockets closer to be able to hit the city center but Ukraine has been able to push them back a little bit so only the outer edge of the city is hit.

Eventually, Russia will be able to establish a forward-firing position to hit the center of Kyiv and turn that city to rubble, then he will send in troops to finish off the defenders. If the defenders are able to push back the Russian troops then Putin will have to use more nasty weapons.

The ideal weapon for Putin would be poison gas that is heavier than air so that it creeps into bunkers and basements where Ukrainians are taking cover

Putin's goal is not scorched earth, his goal is to take all of Ukraine and he will do what is needed to achieve those goals. If all it takes is rockets and artillery then he will do that, if it takes more then he will do that.

 

[SchlongConery]

I have no idea if Putin has fallen into the trap as related in
the link in the OP. But I suspect the Ukraine war is Putin's
trap set for the purpose of bringing global sanction on Russia's
exports of energy and other natural resources. Blowup of
prices in oil, natural gas, fertilisers, copper, iron pellets, nickel,
aluminium, uranium ........... triggered by the war is what Putin
wanted as excuse for later reverse-sanction of the world as
well as for enrichment of his own pocket. I suspect that Putin's
henchmen wealth managers have already scored huge gains
in international financial markets from trading stocks and
commodities in the natural resource sector.

You have one heck of an imagination!

But clearly didn't read the article.

 

[Anbarandy]

Unless of course he falls out of a window.

I'm sure Putin has more to worry about those below him now than Ukraine or sanctions.
10k dead, 15k injured....

You forgot to include a dozen or so duct taped and shrink wrapped to poles which some board members are absolutely livid and outraged about.

Can't wait for Lavrov to go to the UN War Crimes Commission with duct tape in one hand and shrink wrap in the other.

"See what these Nazis are doing. Du ya see it, huh, huh? Well, well ..... speak up"

 

[Frankfooter]

You forgot to include a dozen or so duct taped and shrink wrapped to poles which some board members are absolutely livid and outraged about.

How could I forget the biggest war crime of all?

 

[jcpro]

Not missiles, they are expensive. Putin uses blind fire rockets and artillery to level cities, he has already used those in Mariupol to turn it to rubble and he is trying to do the same to kyiv. Russian artillery and rockets have about a 20 mile range and right now they are setup at a distance just close enough to hit the outer edge of kyiv. Russia keeps trying to move their artillery and rockets closer to be able to hit the city center but Ukraine has been able to push them back a little bit so only the outer edge of the city is hit.

Eventually, Russia will be able to establish a forward-firing position to hit the center of Kyiv and turn that city to rubble, then he will send in troops to finish off the defenders. If the defenders are able to push back the Russian troops then Putin will have to use more nasty weapons.

The ideal weapon for Putin would be poison gas that is heavier than air so that it creeps into bunkers and basements where Ukrainians are taking cover

Putin's goal is not scorched earth, his goal is to take all of Ukraine and he will do what is needed to achieve those goals. If all it takes is rockets and artillery then he will do that, if it takes more then he will do that.

He is doing exactly what was done in Grozny. Only then, not many cared.