The Unvaccinated in Canada Part 2 - MATH time!

[barnacler]

So...


About 16% of Ontario's population of about 15 million are UNVACCINATED.

Are we agreed?

So that is about 2.4 million people.

Are we agreed?

About 55% of ICU patients are there for COVID 19, and today's number is 587, so that is 322 COVID ICU patients.

Are we agreed?

Apparently, the unvaccinated are admitted at a rate 4 times higher than the unvaccinated. OK, I will accept that.

(source https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/01/30/ontario-reports-587-people-in-icu-with-covid-19.html)

So roughly, that means that, were COVID ICU admissions totally unrelated to vaccination status, there would be 322 * .16 0r 52 Unvaccinated COVID ICU patients.

So presumably there are instead 208 unvaccinated ICU patients, and I guess 112 Vaccinated ICU COVID patients.

So 208 / 2 4 million is ---wait t for it,,,, drum roill...

0.00008666666!

Lets move that into percentage terms.: 0.08666%

That works out to one in 11,500.

So let me get this straight. Vaccine Hystericists, can you confirm to me that you feel that the ENTIRE problem is due to the one in 11,500 non-vaxxed people admitted into ICUs that are causing the problem?


And that they are CRAZY for not getting too worked up about a 1 in 11,500 chance?

And that if in fact they don't smoke, and are not obese of over 80 they are way way less likely than that to end up in ICU?

These are the selfish terrorists?

So what numbers make sense?

What if it was 1 in 100 million versus 1 in 10 billion? Would the 1 in 100 million be the silly bastards for taking that big risk and screwing everybody over?


This is the most silly, obvious case of scapegoating for political gain cases I have ever seen.

It is more dangerous to DIE from the following activities(per year) than to be unvaccinated :

Canoeing (1/10,000)
Hang Gliding (1/560)
Boxing (1/2000)

 

[HungSowel]

This makes no sense.

 

[K Douglas]

barnacler you're wasting your time. The left doesn't understand math or facts.

 

[Jenesis]

It is not the total percentage population of the country. It is the percentage population of the ICU.

So do the math.

What is the percentage of the people in the ICU that are unvaxxed?

What is the percentage of people not vaccinated in the province of the hospital‘s ICU?

Give me those two answers. If the top question has a larger number then the bottom question, we have a problem. Because unvaxxed are using way more hospital resources then they should based on the percentage of them.

Just like some 15% of POC make up some 85% of the prison population. The numbers show the disproportion. It is that disproportion between unvaxxed and hospital use that is the problem.

All of this, all these measures to curb COVID, it is all meant to ensure that hospitals are not over run. If COVID killed but didn’t put you in a hospital, I doubt the government would care. It is all about hospital resources. So if the unvaxxed are taking up so much more of the hospital resources, then that is the issue.

 

[PeteOsborne]

So...


About 16% of Ontario's population of about 15 million are UNVACCINATED.

Are we agreed?

So that is about 2.4 million people.

Are we agreed?

About 55% of ICU patients are there for COVID 19, and today's number is 587, so that is 322 COVID ICU patients.

Are we agreed?

Apparently, the unvaccinated are admitted at a rate 4 times higher than the unvaccinated. OK, I will accept that.

(source https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/01/30/ontario-reports-587-people-in-icu-with-covid-19.html)

So roughly, that means that, were COVID ICU admissions totally unrelated to vaccination status, there would be 322 * .16 0r 52 Unvaccinated COVID ICU patients.

So presumably there are instead 208 unvaccinated ICU patients, and I guess 112 Vaccinated ICU COVID patients.

So 208 / 2 4 million is ---wait t for it,,,, drum roill...

0.00008666666!

Lets move that into percentage terms.: 0.08666%

That works out to one in 11,500.

So let me get this straight. Vaccine Hystericists, can you confirm to me that you feel that the ENTIRE problem is due to the one in 11,500 non-vaxxed people admitted into ICUs that are causing the problem?


And that they are CRAZY for not getting too worked up about a 1 in 11,500 chance?

And that if in fact they don't smoke, and are not obese of over 80 they are way way less likely than that to end up in ICU?

These are the selfish terrorists?

So what numbers make sense?

What if it was 1 in 100 million versus 1 in 10 billion? Would the 1 in 100 million be the silly bastards for taking that big risk and screwing everybody over?


This is the most silly, obvious case of scapegoating for political gain cases I have ever seen.

It is more dangerous to DIE from the following activities(per year) than to be unvaccinated :

Canoeing (1/10,000)
Hang Gliding (1/560)
Boxing (1/2000)

Your facts are wrong.
Jan. 30, 2022
Data is for adult ICU beds
Total number of Adult ICU beds 2343
Adults in ICU admitted due to covid 587
Adults in ICU admitted due to non Covid reasons 1240
Adult ICU beds available 525
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations
Also it is 82% admitted to ICU for covid and 18% for other reasons but have since tested positive.
You are using the numbers for hospitalized patients in your ICU calculations.
"Apparently, the unvaccinated are admitted at a rate 4 times higher than the unvaccinated."
I think you meant higher than the vaccinated.
Unvaccinated in ICU 199
Partially vaccinated 18
Fully vaccinated in ICU 231
I am leaving unknown out of the figures.
Unvaccinated represent 34% of ICU patients.
Partially vaccinated represent 3% of ICU patients.
Fully vaccinated represent 40% of ICU patients.
16% of Ontario is unvaccinated.
5% of ontario is partially vaccinated.
79% of Ontario is fully vaccinated.
Unvaccinated while only 16% of the population are 34% of the ICU cases.
Fully vaccinated at 79% are only 6% more of the ICU patients.
https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=ON

 

[Jenesis]

Your facts are wrong.
…..

Unvaccinated in ICU 199
Partially vaccinated 18
Fully vaccinated in ICU 231
I am leaving unknown out of the figures.
Unvaccinated represent 34% of ICU patients.
Partially vaccinated represent 3% of ICU patients.
Fully vaccinated represent 40% of ICU patients.
16% of Ontario is unvaccinated.
5% of ontario is partially vaccinated.
79% of Ontario is fully vaccinated.
Unvaccinated while only 16% of the population are 34% of the ICU cases.
Fully vaccinated at 79% are only 6% more of the ICU patients.

These are the numbers I was too lazy to look up. But this is correct. Population percentage plays here.

 

[HungSowel]

OP is saying that in a hypothetical universe where the vaccine has 0 effectiveness that if 16% of the population are unvaxxed and 84% are vaxxed that would be reflected in ICU number at the same 16% vs 84% proportion, which is correct in that hypothetic universe.

However, for his calculations, he uses the 322 ICU number which is a number that exists in a universe in which the vaccine is effective, i.e our current universe. In a hypothetical universe where the vaccine has 0 effectiveness, I would expect not 322 ICU patients but about 10x that so 3200
ICU patients.

Also, he needs to sum up his calculated probability over a period of time to compare with his "It is more dangerous to DIE from the following activities(per year) than to be unvaccinated " comparisons in which the interval of risk is over a period of 1 year. Assuming the average ICU stay is 1 week then you would multiply his calculated probability by 52 as there are 52 weeks in a year, I know there is more to this calculation but multiplying by 52 is ballpark correct.

In summary, his calculated probability is in the range of 10*52 = 520 off, he is off by a factor of 520 for his hypothetical universe. His 1 in 11500 chance is actually 1 in 44 chance, if the vaccine had 0 effectiveness then your odds of going to the ICU per year is 1/44.

 

[ShockNAwww]

On the subject of numbers, some unvaccinated math for the interested

The National Post reported an estimate of between 8,000-10,000 at the Ottawa protest on Saturday.

On the same day, 8,054 people in Ontario got their first COVID vaccine. 48,677 first doses were administered in Ontario between the start of the truck parade and that day.

For visual reference of those numbers:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1488242908796968967

 

[Rako3]

It is more dangerous to DIE from the following activities(per year) than to be unvaccinated :

Canoeing (1/10,000)
Hang Gliding (1/560)
Boxing (1/2000)

I totally agree that at this point it's a waste of time and energy trying to protect the unvaccinated from themselves.

I think all restrictions should be lifted. What that will mean, of course, is that a heck of a lot more unvaccinated people are going to be dying, since the restrictions have done a lot to reduce infection. For the vaccinated, it's like having a cold. For the unvaccinated, well, good luck.

But in deference to those who insist it's about hospital resources, I think the unvaccinated who catch covid should be forced to rely on their own "science" and sent home with some ivermectin and a UV light they can stick up their butt, and take their chances. Don't like the science behind vaccines? You don't get the science behind advanced medical care.

 

[Malibuk]

So...


About 16% of Ontario's population of about 15 million are UNVACCINATED.

Are we agreed?

So that is about 2.4 million people.

Are we agreed?

About 55% of ICU patients are there for COVID 19, and today's number is 587, so that is 322 COVID ICU patients.

Are we agreed?

Apparently, the unvaccinated are admitted at a rate 4 times higher than the unvaccinated. OK, I will accept that.

(source https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/01/30/ontario-reports-587-people-in-icu-with-covid-19.html)

So roughly, that means that, were COVID ICU admissions totally unrelated to vaccination status, there would be 322 * .16 0r 52 Unvaccinated COVID ICU patients.

So presumably there are instead 208 unvaccinated ICU patients, and I guess 112 Vaccinated ICU COVID patients.

So 208 / 2 4 million is ---wait t for it,,,, drum roill...

0.00008666666!

Lets move that into percentage terms.: 0.08666%

That works out to one in 11,500.

So let me get this straight. Vaccine Hystericists, can you confirm to me that you feel that the ENTIRE problem is due to the one in 11,500 non-vaxxed people admitted into ICUs that are causing the problem?


And that they are CRAZY for not getting too worked up about a 1 in 11,500 chance?

And that if in fact they don't smoke, and are not obese of over 80 they are way way less likely than that to end up in ICU?

These are the selfish terrorists?

So what numbers make sense?

What if it was 1 in 100 million versus 1 in 10 billion? Would the 1 in 100 million be the silly bastards for taking that big risk and screwing everybody over?


This is the most silly, obvious case of scapegoating for political gain cases I have ever seen.

It is more dangerous to DIE from the following activities(per year) than to be unvaccinated :

Canoeing (1/10,000)
Hang Gliding (1/560)
Boxing (1/2000)

So you think it makes sense to summarize the entire pandemic with this momentary narrow snapshot in time?

You should focus on LOGIC time before trying to tackle MATH time.

 

[Male4Strapon]

OP is saying that in a hypothetical universe where the vaccine has 0 effectiveness that if 16% of the population are unvaxxed and 84% are vaxxed that would be reflected in ICU number at the same 16% vs 84% proportion, which is correct in that hypothetic universe.

However, for his calculations, he uses the 322 ICU number which is a number that exists in a universe in which the vaccine is effective, i.e our current universe. In a hypothetical universe where the vaccine has 0 effectiveness, I would expect not 322 ICU patients but about 10x that so 3200
ICU patients.

Also, he needs to sum up his calculated probability over a period of time to compare with his "It is more dangerous to DIE from the following activities(per year) than to be unvaccinated " comparisons in which the interval of risk is over a period of 1 year. Assuming the average ICU stay is 1 week then you would multiply his calculated probability by 52 as there are 52 weeks in a year, I know there is more to this calculation but multiplying by 52 is ballpark correct.

In summary, his calculated probability is in the range of 10*52 = 520 off, he is off by a factor of 520 for his hypothetical universe. His 1 in 11500 chance is actually 1 in 44 chance, if the vaccine had 0 effectiveness then your odds of going to the ICU per year is 1/44.

I’m not smart enough to understand what you are saying, but it works for me.

 

[Male4Strapon]

On the subject of numbers, some unvaccinated math for the interested

The National Post reported an estimate of between 8,000-10,000 at the Ottawa protest on Saturday.


On the same day, 8,054 people in Ontario got their first COVID vaccine. 48,677 first doses were administered in Ontario between the start of the truck parade and that day.

For visual reference of those numbers:

View attachment 119760

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1488242908796968967

So less than the attendance at the Canada soccer game in Hamilton (12,000 and only because capacity was cut in half).

 

[ShockNAwww]

So less than the attendance at the Canada soccer game in Hamilton (12,000 and only because capacity was cut in half).

 

[NotADcotor]

. Vaccine Hystericists

Twisting and misusing statistics. Typical plague enthusiast tactics.

So that other thread when you were spreading lies about store shelves going bare and you bullshitted about how you were not making any comment about covid [even though you were] it turns out I pegged you 100% correct. And to think I took your claims that my assumptions were wrong at face value.

Being a liar means welcome to the ignore pile.

 

[SeaGirth]

Lockdowns only reduced COVID deaths by 0.2 per cent, Johns Hopkins study finds
'We find no evidence that lockdowns, school closures, border closures, and limiting gatherings have had a noticeable effect on COVID-19 mortality'
A new study out of Johns Hopkins University is claiming that worldwide pandemic lockdowns only prevented 0.2 per cent of COVID-19 deaths and were “not an effective way of reducing mortality rates during a pandemic.”
“We find no evidence that lockdowns, school closures, border closures, and limiting gatherings have had a noticeable effect on COVID-19 mortality,” reads the paper , which is based on a review of 34 pre-existing COVID-19 studies.
Given the “devastating effects” that lockdowns have caused, the authors recommended they be “rejected out of hand as a pandemic policy instrument.”

In both Europe and the United States, researchers found that a lockdown could only be expected to bring down mortality rates by 0.2 per cent “as compared to a COVID-19 policy based solely on recommendations.” For context, 0.2 per cent of total Canadian COVID-19 fatalities thus far is equal to about 70 people.

The impact of border closures was found to be even less effective, with death rates only going down about 0.1 per cent.

 

[Platon]

All you need to look at is mortality rate, which has been consistently low for most people. If you think low mortality rate justifies getting jabbed 3 times in a year with brand new never fully tested drug more power to you. As for ICUs we don't really know who is in the ICUs, what is the age of those people, do they have other conditions etc. without this information the data is useless, we can only get an idea of how busy things get. If you follow the advertisement and get jabbed to help improve hospital capacity and never think about how many hospital/ICU beds were added after Blackface spent ~$500 billion of our money you will probably be voting Liberal again.

 

[Male4Strapon]

As for ICUs we don't really know who is in the ICUs, what is the age of those people, do they have other conditions etc. without this information the data is useless,

You may not know, I may not know but the people who run hospitals do.

 

[Platon]

You may not know, I may not know but the people who run hospitals do.

So why would you blindly trust them, is it one-and-done at 70% and we are back to normal or two-and-done at 75% and back to normal or vax stops transmission/infection/death or get your booster and no reopening promises that makes them so trustworthy?

 

[Male4Strapon]

So why would you blindly trust them, is it one-and-done at 70% and we are back to normal or two-and-done at 75% and back to normal or vax stops transmission/infection/death or get your booster and no reopening promises that makes them so trustworthy?

Um….. because they are the people who KNOW

do you trust a doctor to perform surgery? A dentist to extract a tooth? A pilot to fly a plane? I leave things in the hands of the experts rather than dismissing it because of a GUESS that they’re mistaken

 

[basketcase]

Lockdowns only reduced COVID deaths by 0.2 per cent, Johns Hopkins study finds
...

Because there hasn't been much in the way of real lockdowns here. We had a short period at the start where we got close to a lockdown but most of the restrictions we've had are simply asking people to stay home if they can (which many can't or won't).