Simon Watkins
Sep 22, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump last week called on European countries to stop importing Russian oil and gas and to start imposing tariffs on China in order to end the war in Ukraine. He added that Washington is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia if NATO members -- the vast majority of which are European -- did both. On the continued buying of Russian oil and gas, Trump highlighted to the members of the security organisation that it greatly weakens their negotiating position and bargaining power over Russia. On the issue of imposing tariffs on China, he underlined that Beijing has a strong grip over Moscow and that it has become Russia's largest trading partner since the Ukraine war began, providing it with a critical financial lifeline in the process. Given that all these comments are correct, what is Europe going to do now?
That Trump addressed his comments to the security collective of ‘NATO members’, rather than to a geographical collective, tacitly reiterates to Europe the idea that the U.S.’s commitment to NATO might be under further threat if they do not implement his latest suggestions on Russia and China. When he did the same regarding his belief that NATO members should increase their annual defence spending from an average of 2% of their gross domestic product in 2024 to around 5%, this was quickly agreed to. Consequently, there is no reason to think European NATO members will not do the same on completely halting Russian oil and gas imports sooner rather than later. This is particularly true as it is something that many European countries already want to do and are moving toward implementing. Specifically, on 6 May, the European Union’s (E.U.) executive branch -- the European Commission (E.C.) – published its roadmap to phase out Russian energy imports completely by the end of 2027. One part of this will be done by improving the transparency, monitoring, and traceability of Russian gas across the E.U. markets, while new contracts with suppliers of Russian gas will be prevented, and spot contracts will be stopped by the end of this year. Another part will address Russian oil imports with an emphasis on employing the same techniques as for gas and a particular focus on Russia's ‘shadow fleet’ (vessels used by Russia to evade sanctions on oil). The final part will address the nuclear element of the threat from Moscow, restricting new supply contracts co-signed by the Euratom Supply Agency for uranium, enriched uranium and other nuclear materials deriving from Russia. The E.U. has already reduced its share of Russian gas imports from 45% to 19% due to the implementation of the REPowerEU Plan in May 2022. However, E.U. Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen underlined on 13 May that: “The E.U. is very clear. We do not wish for energy from Russia in the future. We don’t wish it now and we will not wish it after a peace [in Ukraine],” he said. “The Roadmap is a very clear signal
that we don’t want to import so much as a single molecule [of Russian gas or oil] in the future,” he added.
Following Trump’s latest comments (made on 13 September in the Truth Social media service), several key members of the E.U. moved to support the idea within the E.C. of bringing this forward by at least a year, a very senior security source at the E.U. exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “It could be done earlier, even within the next twelve months, and there are serious talks going on now to that effect,” he said. U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright is even more bullish on the timeframe, stating last week that the E.U. could phase out Russian gas entirely within the next 6- to 12-months. “The only obstacle here [to achieving a phase out of Russian gas imports to Europe within the next 12 months] is the objection of Russia-friendly members Hungary and Slovakia, but this could be dealt with once there is consensus otherwise in the membership,” said the E.U. source. “Once the various mechanisms have been established to end our [the E.U.’s] Russian gas imports, it would be relatively straightforward to do the same for Russian oil imports too,” he underlined.
The principal alternative sources of supply for European gas needs were established in the months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. These included increased liquefied natural gas supplies from Qatar, among other countries in the region, and from the U.S. All such supply channels remain open, and volumes can be increased over time, most notably from the U.S. Significant in this context was the E.U. pledge in July to buy US$750bn worth of U.S. energy, including gas and oil. Although some in the E.U. questioned whether such volumes could be imported from the U.S., Washington’s unequivocal view is: ‘Cut out all Russian oil and gas, and then we can discuss if the deal with us is too much then’, according to the E.U. source. “There is always going to be considerable flexibility in the deal in terms of the mix of national and private companies involved on both sides, pricing structures, and contract lengths, but in basic terms the U.S. sees no reason why the E.U. would say it cannot import the agreed volumes from the U.S. when it is continuing to import oil and gas from Russia – it looks nonsensical,” he added.
That said, there is less clarity across the E.U. when it comes to imposing tariffs on China, especially at the 50-100% level mentioned by Trump. To begin with, it is much more difficult legally for the E.C. to impose tariffs than it is to impose sanctions, the E.U. source told OilPrice.com last week. “Any agreement must be made among all members and must consider a raft of E.U. and WTO [World Trade Organisation] statutes and rules, as they [tariffs] are classed as a trade policy tool rather than as the foreign policy tool that sanctions are seen as,” he said. Trump, for his part, has always regarded tariffs and sanctions as two weapons in the same broad arsenal of punishments against targeted states, as also detailed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Aside from the legal technicalities involved, there is also the economic fact that China is the largest importer of goods to Europe and third-largest market for European exports at a time when Europe is struggling to generate meaningful economic growth. That said, cognisant of the broader NATO security implications mentioned earlier in completely side-stepping the China issue, the E.U.’s 19th package of sanctions against Russia released on 19 September, stated that: “We propose further measures on Chinese actors supporting Russia’s military industry.” It added: “These new sanctions will also squeeze Russia’s access to technologies including AI [artificial intelligence] and geospatial data, as well as critical resources that feed weapons production [...] This includes those received from foreign suppliers including China [and India].” E.C. President Ursula von der Leyen also stated in the accompanying press conference to the Package announcement that: “We target refineries, oil traders, petrochemical companies in third countries, including China.” At the same time, E.U. foreign policy head Kaja Kallas, posted on social media that: “We’re adding more chemicals, metal components, salts, and ores to our export bans and tighter export controls on entities from Russia as well as China [and India].”
In short, according to the E.U. source, Europe has acknowledged Trump’s recently stated concerns over China in some action but is waiting to see if he is serious about following through on these, given his vacillation in China policy during his first term and in his second one to date. However, on the issue of expediting the full ban on all imports of Russian oil and gas ahead of 2027, it is “full throttle ahead,” he concluded.
oilprice.com
Sep 22, 2025
- U.S. President Donald Trump called on European countries to stop importing Russian oil and gas and to start imposing tariffs on China in order to end the war in Ukraine.
- Trump addressed his comments to the security collective of ‘NATO members'.
- Following Trump’s latest comments, several key members of the E.U. moved to support the idea of bringing this forward by at least a year.
U.S. President Donald Trump last week called on European countries to stop importing Russian oil and gas and to start imposing tariffs on China in order to end the war in Ukraine. He added that Washington is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia if NATO members -- the vast majority of which are European -- did both. On the continued buying of Russian oil and gas, Trump highlighted to the members of the security organisation that it greatly weakens their negotiating position and bargaining power over Russia. On the issue of imposing tariffs on China, he underlined that Beijing has a strong grip over Moscow and that it has become Russia's largest trading partner since the Ukraine war began, providing it with a critical financial lifeline in the process. Given that all these comments are correct, what is Europe going to do now?
That Trump addressed his comments to the security collective of ‘NATO members’, rather than to a geographical collective, tacitly reiterates to Europe the idea that the U.S.’s commitment to NATO might be under further threat if they do not implement his latest suggestions on Russia and China. When he did the same regarding his belief that NATO members should increase their annual defence spending from an average of 2% of their gross domestic product in 2024 to around 5%, this was quickly agreed to. Consequently, there is no reason to think European NATO members will not do the same on completely halting Russian oil and gas imports sooner rather than later. This is particularly true as it is something that many European countries already want to do and are moving toward implementing. Specifically, on 6 May, the European Union’s (E.U.) executive branch -- the European Commission (E.C.) – published its roadmap to phase out Russian energy imports completely by the end of 2027. One part of this will be done by improving the transparency, monitoring, and traceability of Russian gas across the E.U. markets, while new contracts with suppliers of Russian gas will be prevented, and spot contracts will be stopped by the end of this year. Another part will address Russian oil imports with an emphasis on employing the same techniques as for gas and a particular focus on Russia's ‘shadow fleet’ (vessels used by Russia to evade sanctions on oil). The final part will address the nuclear element of the threat from Moscow, restricting new supply contracts co-signed by the Euratom Supply Agency for uranium, enriched uranium and other nuclear materials deriving from Russia. The E.U. has already reduced its share of Russian gas imports from 45% to 19% due to the implementation of the REPowerEU Plan in May 2022. However, E.U. Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen underlined on 13 May that: “The E.U. is very clear. We do not wish for energy from Russia in the future. We don’t wish it now and we will not wish it after a peace [in Ukraine],” he said. “The Roadmap is a very clear signal
that we don’t want to import so much as a single molecule [of Russian gas or oil] in the future,” he added.
Following Trump’s latest comments (made on 13 September in the Truth Social media service), several key members of the E.U. moved to support the idea within the E.C. of bringing this forward by at least a year, a very senior security source at the E.U. exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “It could be done earlier, even within the next twelve months, and there are serious talks going on now to that effect,” he said. U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright is even more bullish on the timeframe, stating last week that the E.U. could phase out Russian gas entirely within the next 6- to 12-months. “The only obstacle here [to achieving a phase out of Russian gas imports to Europe within the next 12 months] is the objection of Russia-friendly members Hungary and Slovakia, but this could be dealt with once there is consensus otherwise in the membership,” said the E.U. source. “Once the various mechanisms have been established to end our [the E.U.’s] Russian gas imports, it would be relatively straightforward to do the same for Russian oil imports too,” he underlined.
The principal alternative sources of supply for European gas needs were established in the months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. These included increased liquefied natural gas supplies from Qatar, among other countries in the region, and from the U.S. All such supply channels remain open, and volumes can be increased over time, most notably from the U.S. Significant in this context was the E.U. pledge in July to buy US$750bn worth of U.S. energy, including gas and oil. Although some in the E.U. questioned whether such volumes could be imported from the U.S., Washington’s unequivocal view is: ‘Cut out all Russian oil and gas, and then we can discuss if the deal with us is too much then’, according to the E.U. source. “There is always going to be considerable flexibility in the deal in terms of the mix of national and private companies involved on both sides, pricing structures, and contract lengths, but in basic terms the U.S. sees no reason why the E.U. would say it cannot import the agreed volumes from the U.S. when it is continuing to import oil and gas from Russia – it looks nonsensical,” he added.
That said, there is less clarity across the E.U. when it comes to imposing tariffs on China, especially at the 50-100% level mentioned by Trump. To begin with, it is much more difficult legally for the E.C. to impose tariffs than it is to impose sanctions, the E.U. source told OilPrice.com last week. “Any agreement must be made among all members and must consider a raft of E.U. and WTO [World Trade Organisation] statutes and rules, as they [tariffs] are classed as a trade policy tool rather than as the foreign policy tool that sanctions are seen as,” he said. Trump, for his part, has always regarded tariffs and sanctions as two weapons in the same broad arsenal of punishments against targeted states, as also detailed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Aside from the legal technicalities involved, there is also the economic fact that China is the largest importer of goods to Europe and third-largest market for European exports at a time when Europe is struggling to generate meaningful economic growth. That said, cognisant of the broader NATO security implications mentioned earlier in completely side-stepping the China issue, the E.U.’s 19th package of sanctions against Russia released on 19 September, stated that: “We propose further measures on Chinese actors supporting Russia’s military industry.” It added: “These new sanctions will also squeeze Russia’s access to technologies including AI [artificial intelligence] and geospatial data, as well as critical resources that feed weapons production [...] This includes those received from foreign suppliers including China [and India].” E.C. President Ursula von der Leyen also stated in the accompanying press conference to the Package announcement that: “We target refineries, oil traders, petrochemical companies in third countries, including China.” At the same time, E.U. foreign policy head Kaja Kallas, posted on social media that: “We’re adding more chemicals, metal components, salts, and ores to our export bans and tighter export controls on entities from Russia as well as China [and India].”
In short, according to the E.U. source, Europe has acknowledged Trump’s recently stated concerns over China in some action but is waiting to see if he is serious about following through on these, given his vacillation in China policy during his first term and in his second one to date. However, on the issue of expediting the full ban on all imports of Russian oil and gas ahead of 2027, it is “full throttle ahead,” he concluded.
Trump Presses Europe to Cut Russian Energy and Target China with Tariffs | OilPrice.com
Europe has acknowledged Trump’s recently stated concerns over China in some action but is waiting to see if he is serious about following through on these
oilprice.com
