Take aways
- I wish this was available for Canada. I suspect the numbers will be tighter.
- Expect 4% real rate of returns when investing in the US. Canada? Likely a lot, lot lower.
United States; Inflation versus S&P500 returns - 40 year annualized.
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Take aways
You do realize it is Annualized....not annual right? Of course, this is TERB so everyone always says "wrong" but yet completely unable to articulate how it is wrong nor able to provide their own version or even references.
The results & swing is obviously drastic depending on the number of years you do it over. Inflation was higher years ago. We all remember "2%" but it was never really "2%". For example, in Canada (merely as an example), 2001-2000, the monthly rate of inflation bounced around from 0.6% to 4.4%. IN 1991, it hit almost 7%. The 50 year annualized goes drastically higher because of the 70s. No doubt you remember the 1970s.
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Inflation can be hard to measure. For example, how do you measure improvements in a good or service?
For Canada, I wonder if asset price inflation(especially housing) has been properly accounted for.
Despite the high inflation of the 1970s, the Canadian standard of living caught up with the U.S. during that period. Commodity prices were high.
Working class wages still beat inflation. Maybe that is why the professional class always pooh poohs the decade.
U.S. stocks have left Canadian stocks in the dust since the financial crisis. Can the tech stocks keep it up? Is AI in the early days? Can anyone make much money from AI besides NVIDIA?
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Yup, inflation measurements, particularly wrt housing, assets, rent blah blah, are very controversial.
"U.S. stocks have left Canadian stocks in the dust since the financial crisis."
ya...fuuuuuck, I know. Looking at the index funds I purchased a long time ago, the CDN index is 73% RoR, International 66%, US index 343%.... Fuck me
, I figured Canada, resources, good returns. Who knew then that the Canadian government would actively seek to squash our resource industry right?hhahah, all good, even if it crashes tmr, data has shown you'll likely be up 3-5 yrs out.
time in the market, not timing
You called it, it's tomorrow and S&P500 down >1%
Although this is just noise, not a crash.buy the dip in a bull runYou called it, it's tomorrow and S&P500 down >1%
Berkshire Hathaway holding more cash than ever. Warren Buffet voices concerns. I'm suspecting a rocky 2024, I'm diversifying with some bonds and other assets.
They cannot find anything of value that is big enough to move the needle with all the cash they have.
it's an election year ....don't go against the pattern ...and the bears have been screaming for further downside ...didn't happen last yr, and it won't happen this yr until perhaps when Trump wins
Yeah. The bears have been wrong. U.S. Stocks definitely not cheap with the Shiller PE and Buffett indicator at the high end. But then, NVIDIA earnings have been outpacing it's stock gains.
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bears had their feast in 2022 and black swan in 2020 ...to be bearish in 2024 is completely going against the odds
let me add besides that it's an election year, 4 consecutive green months of the spx was followed by 10 green months --100 percent of the time
markets can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent
even if one isn't short, sitting out means missing out on the best days of the market which obviously substantially reduced one's long term return ...even if the bears go all in in the next bottom and time it perfectly (they won't) , it's been academically shown to be a sub optimal strategy vs being consistently invested in the market ...time in the market, not timing it
volatility and uncertainty are the fees of admission of being in the market and to try to avoid the risks while realizing the gains (getting in and out at the right times) is like trying to steal from the market
Yeah. It is sad when people get stuck in T-bills and money market funds because of inertia. It happens a lot. Even when they looked at portfolios of a lot of "experts" such as university profs, that is what they found. I have a little too much ZST in my TFSA but quite a bit of stock(too much Canadian, though) in other accounts and workplace pension.
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The issues for the Canadian economy run deeper than the fossil fuel industry. Productivity gains are lagging the U.S.Yup, inflation measurements, particularly wrt housing, assets, rent blah blah, are very controversial.
"U.S. stocks have left Canadian stocks in the dust since the financial crisis."
ya...fuuuuuck, I know. Looking at the index funds I purchased a long time ago, the CDN index is 73% RoR, International 66%, US index 343%.... Fuck me
Most people don't understand productivity = wealth. They think (or want to believe) government policy primarily drives wealth. In fact in mature Western economies, governments are not a big driver of productivity as the roads, the bridges and so on have been built. Government efforts to drive certain industries typically result in the inefficient use of capital. I think you will also understand that productivity growth is being driven more by technology and less by physical investment.
The drama teacher is out to crush ALL of our industries, not just resources.Yup, inflation measurements, particularly wrt housing, assets, rent blah blah, are very controversial.
"U.S. stocks have left Canadian stocks in the dust since the financial crisis."
ya...fuuuuuck, I know. Looking at the index funds I purchased a long time ago, the CDN index is 73% RoR, International 66%, US index 343%.... Fuck me
Special taxes on banks, throttling the Telco industry making them spend billions of shareholders money and then forcing them to let competition use that infrastructure at less than cost. Resource industry as you mentioned. Now they want to regulate the food industry. Any industries left? Be careful, don't let him find out!
This. Also any government help just makes an industry or a company reliant on it and therefore less efficient and competitive in the future. But it would be nice if the government can make an environment where business can thrive with less red tape and oversight.
