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USA a Superpower on the Wane

WoodPeckr

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'Why the US should be worried'

Uma Shankar Sathya Kumar

London, January 4, 2007


You always think that the United States of America is the only real superpower in the current world. Well… soon you may have to rethink about it. The "real superpower" title is going to become the mother of all lies and conspiracy theories that the world have had ever known. Don't accept it? Read the following facts and think again:

From the beginning of this 21st century, the United States is facing competition from beyond its borders as well as internal difficulties. Its lower and middle class families are slowly turning out to be the biggest losers of current globalisation. The United States, like ancient Rome, is beginning to be plagued by the limits of its power.

The current globalisation is heavily affecting its economy. In fact, the US has actively promoted the worldwide exchange of commodities like no other nation, and the result is that their local manufacturing industries have begun to be eroded.

Some manufacturing sectors such as furniture, consumer electronics, automobile part suppliers and computer manufacturers have had left the country for good. In the recent past, free trade has primarily benefited the very rival countries that are now mounting a heavy economic offence on the United States and the rival countries have cut off a large slice of America's global market share.

The financial position of the United States has declined dramatically in the last 15 years. The US federal budget is in the deep red, adding to America's dependency on debt.

The war in Iraq and Afghanistan is wiping out loads of dollars from US treasury. A government functioning so irresponsible with no sense of the prosperity of its own country and people is not really a superpower in any sense.

Almost no one is saving any money in the United States today. Saving rates are very low or negative. The US debt grows by about $1.5 billion every weekday and has now reached about $6.5 trillion dollars. Private household debt has reached $11 trillion and 50 per cent of these debts have been incurred since 1998. The Americans are enjoying the present spending spree at the cost of their own future and future generations. The fact is that the expanding consumer debt drives the US economy.

In the near future, many US citizens may have to face harsh reality like a poverty-stricken, third world family, living from hand to mouth situation without any kind of financial reserves whatsoever. The imminent economic crisis is waiting to happen in the US and will be the most thoroughly predicted one in recent human history. People spending so irresponsible with no sense of the prosperity of the country is not a superpower.

Half the world is very impressed by the low levels of unemployment in the United States. Only the other half clearly knows very well that these statistics may be the result of a voluntary telephone survey. Is working just ten hours per week enough for one to be classified as "employed"? The US statistics is usually intended to create more positive image and opinion than about its actual condition. The net reality is that the US job growth rate is falling behind its own population growth.

A country that cannot create jobs for its own population is not a superpower.

Today, the United State's biggest bankers are China and Japan, both of whom could cause the United States very serious financial problems, if they wish to do so at any time. Roughly 27 per cent of the government bonds issued by the US treasury are held by China and Japan. That's why US doesn't complain much about China and Japan.

A country whose financial affairs are in the hands of foreigners is not a superpower.

The US is heavily dependent on overseas imports of manufactured goods and oil, including advanced technology products. In 2006, US dependency on imports was thrice as large as US dependency on imported crude oil. "No country or economy can survive by importing nearly 80 per cent of manufactured goods and oil from overseas. In fact, no society in the history had ever survived in excessive imports and offshoring manufacturing. Almost every country in the world now exports products to the United States without purchasing an equivalent amount of US goods in return. The United States can't even achieve a trade surplus in its trade with less developed national economies like those of Ukraine and Ghana. Everyday, container ships arrive in the US - and after they unload the goods at American ports, many return home empty.

A country that imports even matchsticks can't be a superpower.

After the near erosion of all manufacturing sectors, the US is rapidly increasing its dependency on imports of advanced technology products and medical equipments.

A country that depends on import of advanced technology products is not a superpower.

The priority of US military expenditure has created a growing deficit that has creating major problems in public welfare benefits and education. Foreign loans have provided essential support to the dollar but the dollar is declining and so is that support. As the largest debtor nation the US will have to be more conciliatory to its creditors, and China is one of the biggest, for they will eventually and perhaps quite soon switch from the dollar to a new reserve currency for international trade. At that time, the US economy and it's credit standing will plunge all together.

A very striking fact is that the net increase in aging US population will make all the difference. About 17 per cent of the US population is over 55 years old and 23 per cent is over 40 years. There are millions of Americans who don't have any kind of health insurance.

A country that can't even provide free basic healthcare to its citizens can't be superpower.

With US school students increasingly shunning mathematics and the science subjects, United State's image of global technology leader will soon become history.

A country which depends on "foreign brains" to be technology leader can't be a superpower.

Leading technology companies such as Xerox, Microsoft, Apple, IBM, GE, Google are moving their Research and Development projects out of US is the one and only evidence needed to prove that the US will not be superpower in this century.

The US was founded on the principles of equality and freedom of expression for all race and religion. Whites don't like blacks, blacks don't like whites, whites don't like hispanics, hispanics don't like whites. The statement that "US is a melting pot" is indeed a pot full of lies.

A country with racial inequality can't be a superpower.

What did "Hurricane Katrina's message" to all Americans and the rest of the world? There is also a Somalia or Sudan is within the great United States of America. The US government took five days to respond after all was out of control.

A government, which is too lazy to protect it's own citizens and lie to them that they are safe can't be superpower.

"You are either with us or against us" and by launching a war of aggression on the basis of lies and fabricated "intelligence", the Bush regime violated the Nuremberg standard code established by the UN and international laws. By going to war in Afghanistan and Iraq, many US military companies owned by the politicians must have made billions in profit.

Thus, a land of liars can't be the land of superpower.

Extensive civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction in Iraq, along with the torture of detainees in concentration camps and an ever-changing excuse for the war, have destroyed the moral qualities that provided diplomatic foundation for America's superpower status. A country that is no longer respected and which promises yet more war isolates itself from cooperation from the rest of the world.

An isolated country in the world will never be a superpower.

A country that fears small, distant countries such as North Korea and Iran to such an extent that it want to use military in place of diplomatic means is not a superpower.

US politicians think that the US is still a superpower because of its military weapons and nuclear missiles. However, as the Iraqi resistance has demonstrated that the United State's superior military power is not enough to prevail in fourth generation warfare.

The reality is that the US is not a superpower at all.

The US is the only country in the world to have used nuclear weapons against a country and killing thousands of innocent sleeping Japanese civilians. If six decades after nuking Japan, the US again warns to the use of nuclear weapons on Iran, it will only establish itself as a criminal state under the control of insane Americans.

If the US foreign policy and foreign relations doesn't change totally, any sympathy that might still exist in rest of the world for the United States would soon disappear in the years to come, and the world would unite against the US.

A country against which the world is united is not a superpower.

[cont.]
 

WoodPeckr

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The land of the great American dream, land of opportunities, land of creations, land of all enterprises, land of wealth, land of future-minded people, land of racial equality, America is revered by many. However, America is not the same after 9/11, not even for the Americans, America is still the same after 9/11 tragedy.

If one were to go by the theory of Ibne-Khuldun, a 12th century Arabic scholar from Morocco whose writings was compiled in the book "Muqqadima", theorises that all civilisations in this world usually will have a life span of approx 300 years before totally fading out. Some civilisations after they fade away become dead civilisation like Aztec and Mayan. Others like Persian, Indian, Chinese, Egyptian, etc, are living civilisations capable of rising again and again.

This might create a stir, but by this account USA has gone past its zenith and could be on the decline now.

The present US leads the world in divorce, crime and immorality. It is a country, which is actually waiting for total economical, social and lifestyle disaster. The United States is too engrossed in power obsession to ever have the will to revive and remain as a real democratic country for its own citizens. It won't be long before the US will have to face grim reality of the future.

The day is not so far ahead when the world historians and world history will remember the US as 'once a superpower'.

Uma Shankar Sathya Kumar is a regular surfer and can be reached at umashankar_24@yahoo.com.
 

stinkynuts

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I think that China will be the next superpower within the coming decades at this rate. There will be tension between the US and China, and possibly a war.
 

onthebottom

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DonQuixote said:
God protects drunks, fools and the USA.

Not a chance that we'll lose power.
Why? Our opponents are more inept
than the USA.
I think there is wisdom in these remarks.

China take over - 40% of loans are non-performing in china....

And India, where the middle class has not central plumbing.

We don't save enough, that's true, the rest of this is best consumed by those who don't know much.

OTB
 

Don

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stinkynuts said:
I think that China will be the next superpower within the coming decades at this rate. There will be tension between the US and China, and possibly a war.
China will be defeated from within. It's own peasant population, who is getting left behind in the economic boom, but comprise a huge percentage of the main military ranks will rise up.

Remember it was the peasant soldiers shooting down the educated students in '89 because they despised them.

Anyway if the US goes down then that sucks for us since we rely on them so heavily all over the place.
 

onthebottom

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DonQuixote said:
BS Both China and India have huge growing pains ahead.

Do some demographics and report back with a more thorough
analysis of both their strengths & weaknesses.

Recall, the Soviets and Japan were once upon a time a threat
to US.

Get Real.
I think we agree, what's BS

OTB
 

Grind

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I'm not too worried about the US. We're just fine over here. The deficit is a little frustrating, but it's going to narrow once this idiot is out of office. Can't cut taxes AND spend money all over the place. Maybe I'm the only one that likes paying taxes if it means my country is fiscally stable.

Given the amount of trade the US is responsible for, a collapse as described above would be a global collapse.

Much of what's in the article above simply isn't true. There are tons of jobs here, tons of people making lots of money, and I don't know anybody that doesn't have health care. There are people without money, jobs, and healthcare, but it's not because they haven't had the opportunity.
 

WoodPeckr

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Grind said:
I'm not too worried about the US. We're just fine over here.
Yeah, we got it pretty 'sweet' over here!
Welcome to the, 'I got mine, FU*K You Club'!
....:rolleyes:

Got $2,200? In this world, you're rich

A global study reveals an overwhelming wealth gap, with the world's three richest people having more money than the poorest 48 nations combined.

By MarketWatch

The richest 2% of the world's population owns more than half of the world's household wealth.

You may believe you've heard this statistic before, but you haven't: For the first time, personal wealth -- not income -- has been measured around the world. The findings may be surprising, for what makes people "wealthy" across the world spectrum is a relatively low bar.

The research indicates that assets of just $2,200 per adult place a household in the top half of the world's wealthiest. To be among the richest 10% of adults in the world, just $61,000 in assets is needed. If you have more than $500,000, you're part of the richest 1%, the United Nations study says. Indeed, 37 million people now belong in that category.
Half live on less than $2 a day
Sure, you can now be proud that you're rich. But take a moment to think about it, and you'll probably come to realize that the meaning behind these numbers is harrowing. For if it takes just a couple of thousand dollars to qualify as rich in this world, imagine what it means to be poor.

Half the world, nearly 3 billion people, live on less than $2 a day. The three richest people in the world –- Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates, investor Warren Buffett and Mexican telecom mogul Carlos Slim Helú -- have more money than the poorest 48 nations combined.

Even relatively developed nations have low thresholds of per person capital. For example, people in India have per capita assets of $1,100. In Indonesia, capital amounts to $1,400 per person.

The study's authors defined net worth as the value of people's physical and financial assets, less debts.

"In this respect, wealth represents the ownership of capital," the authors say. "Although capital is only one part of personal resources, it is widely believed to have a disproportionate impact on household well-being and economic success, and more broadly on economic development and growth."

That said, it's interesting to look at how those at different economic levels manage their capital.

Property, particularly land and farm assets, are more important in less developed countries because of the greater importance of agriculture and because financial institutions are immature.

The study also reveals the differences in the types of financial assets owned. Savings accounts are strongly featured in transition economies and some rich Asian countries, while stock and other types of financial products are more commonplace in Western nations.

The authors say there is a stronger preference for saving and liquidity in Asian countries because of lack of confidence in financial markets. That isn't so much the case in the United States and the United Kingdom, which have private pensions and more-developed financial markets, they say.
High incomes, negative net worth
Surprisingly, household debt is relatively unimportant in poor countries because, the study says, "while many poor people in poor countries are in debt, their debts are relatively small in total. This is mainly due to the absence of financial institutions that allow households to incur large mortgage and consumer debts, as is increasingly the situation in rich countries"

Meanwhile, "many people in high-income countries have negative net worth and -- somewhat paradoxically -- are among the poorest people in the world in terms of household wealth."

But let's not feel too bad about ourselves, even if we do have a negative savings rate. The average wealth in the United States is $144,000 per person. In Japan, it's $181,000. Overall, wealth is mostly concentrated in North America, Europe and high-income Asia-Pacific countries. People in these countries collectively hold almost 90% of total world wealth.

The world's total wealth is valuated at $125 trillion. Although North America has only 6% of the world's adult population, it accounts for 34% of household wealth.

So be grateful for where you live in the world; it directly correlates to how much you have. But don't bask in superiority: The fastest-growing population of wealthy people is in China.

Look out when this population transitions from saving to spending. It's going to dramatically change the composition of the world economy, and it may just help prevent the world from becoming more of an plutocracy than it already is.

This article was reported and written by Thomas Kostigen for MarketWatch.
 

Never Compromised

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Despite OTB's objections, it is very likely that US influence is on the wane. Currently, China and India see each other as competitors with China giving military support to Pakistan and each country trying to exert influence as a regional power.

If these two countries decide to co-operate in the manner of the NAFTA or EU, the world's largest trading block will be formed.

If current trends continue, there will be a North American trading block, with the US having a surprisingly (to Americans) reduced status, the EU block, and the Asian block. The North American block will be the most asymmetrical given the current status of the US as a superpower. Canada has lost the ability to be independant of the US economic imperialism, but will resist political integration along the lines of the EU simply because Canada would disappear if a North American parliament was to be formed.

Australia and New Zealand will look to both Europe and North America because of language and cultural similarities, but will probably end up becoming part of the Asian block.
 

onthebottom

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Compromised said:
Despite OTB's objections, it is very likely that US influence is on the wane. Currently, China and India see each other as competitors with China giving military support to Pakistan and each country trying to exert influence as a regional power.

If these two countries decide to co-operate in the manner of the NAFTA or EU, the world's largest trading block will be formed.
I would agree with this only as far as the result of India and China becoming strong economies (in addition to just large) would shift balance of power. Having said that I still think for my lifetime that the US will be the preeminent power, but won't have as high a percentage of the power we have today. I think it's more likely that India and China will choose to compete rather than cooperate - both fighting to be the low cost provider to North America and Europe.


Compromised said:
If current trends continue, there will be a North American trading block, with the US having a surprisingly (to Americans) reduced status, the EU block, and the Asian block. The North American block will be the most asymmetrical given the current status of the US as a superpower. Canada has lost the ability to be independant of the US economic imperialism, but will resist political integration along the lines of the EU simply because Canada would disappear if a North American parliament was to be formed.
I don't know what you mean by reduced status, we're 10x larger than Canada and growing faster - adding a Canada every 3-5 years. Are we under threat from Mexico....

Compromised said:
Australia and New Zealand will look to both Europe and North America because of language and cultural similarities, but will probably end up becoming part of the Asian block.
I've always thought we should lure the UK away from the EU (their far to sensible to hang with that lot anyway), kick out Mexico and add Australia and New Zealand. Then rename NAFTA. If this goes well we could offer slots to Singapore and India - all the colonies back together again, just with a different head :D

OTB
 

WoodPeckr

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onthebottom said:
I've always thought we should lure the UK away from the EU (their far to sensible to hang with that lot anyway), kick out Mexico and add Australia and New Zealand. Then rename NAFTA. If this goes well we could offer slots to Singapore and India - all the colonies back together again, just with a different head.

OTB
Interesting theory.
Except Mexico will never be kicked out.
Mexico has oil, lots of oil, some geologists think almost as much as the ME.
Dubya and his Texans look on Mexico as sort of another 'strategic oil reserve' for the USA, to be developed in the future when needed.
In the mean time, just pump the ME dry.........;)
 

Papi Chulo

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DonQuixote said:
Don't forget the cheap labor we can cull from
Mexaco. And all that medication they provide.

50 years from now... the majority of americans will be hispanic.. mostly mexican

They may have lost texas.. but they will win the war!
 

Don

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WoodPeckr said:
Yeah, we got it pretty 'sweet' over here!
Welcome to the, 'I got mine, FU*K You Club'!
....:rolleyes:
Good point WP. Be an example to us. Instead of spending money on an obvious luxury hobby like this, be a shining light of compassion and put that money to a good cause to help the world. We need more people like that in the world for sure.
 

Don

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DQ - but then where will the US get their oil from? you guys are in bad shape as it is on foreign oil dependence already.
 

Grind

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WoodPeckr said:
Yeah, we got it pretty 'sweet' over here!
Welcome to the, 'I got mine, FU*K You Club'!
....

Got $2,200? In this world, you're rich

A global study reveals an overwhelming wealth gap, with the world's three richest people having more money than the poorest 48 nations combined.
Well.. the problem is all of the oppression and the apparent acceptance of oppression all over the globe. It's easy for me to whine about GW, but I could be in N. Korea, Iran, Cuba, etc. ( probably could name dozens over other countries I'd rather not be in) We do have it sweet over here, and many people don't. However, my tax dollars are going to Iraq, so I think I'm part of the FU*K Me Club. I envy Canadians. I live right on the border, so I've spent a lot of time in Canada and the US. Canadians enjoy a great society without this need to interfere in global affairs. You can participate without interfering. The other benefits of Canada can clearly be found in the other forums here. Jesus speaks to our president about Iraq and "moral issues". :confused:
 

onthebottom

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bbking said:
This threads a joke - India and China are emerging markets with one major flaw - a small everyday consumer class, you know the Walmart type. Until they address their poverty class and build a consumer society they will always be at the mercy of the North American and European consumer.

When the US was classified an emerging economy they had one thing going for it - they built a market place for their goods within their own borders, pretty much by necessity due to Europe's penchant to go to war with itself on a regular basis.

Most of you forget the meaning of GLOBAL TRADE - it desires to connect producers with consumers across borders - what this means is that India and China will have no incentive to build internal markets for many decades to come. Only India seems to recognize this and have some very strict market protection laws which has hampered it's growth compared to China - in the end I think India has a better chance than China to achieve super power status in economics.

Compared to the European Wars, this process of necessity needed to grow internal markets will be long and drawn out, besides China has never shown that much concern in the past over the well being of the majority of it's citizens just as long as the ruling class holds power which could even drag this out over a even longer period of time.

The US maintains it's clout economically through innovation and invention - that will not change any time soon.


bbk
Spot on.

OTB
 

onthebottom

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DonQuixote said:
The problem with the creation of the Indian and Chinese
working/middle class is that our working/middle class is
diminishing.

Our consumerism is based on living wages.
So too, theirs. I hope this doesn't become
a zero sum game.
I disagree that our middle class is diminishing.... I offer the fact that non-management wagers increased faster than costs last month.... Do you have any support for your assertion?

OTB
 

onthebottom

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bbking said:
First of all - my statement originally was how the US found the necessity to form a consumer class - I suggested the lack of stability in Europe due to war and political distrust was a leading reason - something lacking in today's reality for China and India - you came back that the 1800's where the most peaceful, culturally fulfilling, something it certainly wasn't.

Now you come back, presumably because I cited the Crimea War as important and come up with the Taiping Rebellion as the biggest War - Maybe bloodiest but economically it was relatively, if not entirely meaningless to the rise of the US economically, so I fail to see your argument other to proclaim that your dick is bigger than mine (not likely but you can say it all ya want if it helps your ego).

The fact remains that unless China and India find a way to build a meaningful middle class consumer society - they will and can not become an economic power that will surpass the US any time soon.




bbk
Oh, and viable banking systems and transparent capital markets would help as well..... details details.

OTB
 
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