Week 2 - NFL my picks

healer677

Dos XX at Senor Frogs
Jan 13, 2004
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After week 1's debacle, it's time to move on. I went one for four on my tickets and made some money. The Denver and New England games cost me two tickets, the Boys for one. So, for a $200 initial investment for week 1, had a return of $724 on 4 conservative tickets. At least the first two lost tickets weren't one leg losses at .5 by NE.

For week 2 - I decided to go both a Money Line and Teaser combo of five teams.
Buffalo at Miami - I teased Miami down to 2.5 and took them on the money line. I have no faith in Lose-man whatsoever. That safety cost me. I had NE at minus 2.5. Had he just thrown the ball away NE might have been forced to go for a field goal or a major. Buffalo's defense is what I expected and McGahee performed as expected. Miami's offense was a diappontment on the Thursday opener but a lot of those timing mistakes can be corrected. This is almost a must win interdivisional game for Miami.

Cleveland at Cincinnati - Money line for the Bengals and teaser at 6.5. I like Crennel but his team looks awful. Bush made a mess of their defense, McGinest and Washington did not impress. Cincinnati is a juggernaut. It was a balanced attack with only one turnover and no need for idiotic unecessary 4th down attempts. Palmer is back.

Detroit at Chicago - The Bears D will rip them a new one. Money line and teaser at 2.5 and 6.5 for the Bears.

Houston and Indy - The more things change...Houston looks like the same team that failed last year. Expect more to come -I see Houston winning 6 games. This isn't one of them. Lay it down for the money on Indy and take a teaser minus 6.5.

StLouis at San Francisco - The Rams couldn't find the end zone with MapQuest. Wilkin is money in the kicking zone. But what the Rams showed me was something new -stopping the run. Stopping the run on a team that's trademarked the run. The Niners have a lot of moxy -poor clock management lost them that game. They'd better hope to heal their whole left side on the O-line or it's gong to be a long blitz filled game. Take the Rams on the money and for 2.5. The Niners can score, but can the D play up.

As always comments are appreciated.

So how did everybody else do? Hammertm? mrpolarbear? (I know someone is happy with the Bears performance - but nothing unexpected).
 
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Brookstone

Active member
Sep 11, 2004
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holy, week 1 isnt even finished yet, you guys are hardcore.

But playing this early, arent you afraid the lines will change drastically thats not to your favor?
 

healer677

Dos XX at Senor Frogs
Jan 13, 2004
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lol - actually no milhouse. I tend to stay away from Point Spreads now. I've made money in the past using OLGC spreads, but there were weeks I got shut out. Now I play teasers (you literally control the spreads but they move the payouts - let's say a game is at 4.5, I can tease it down to 2.5 but instead of paying out at 1.95 at 4.5, it might only pay out at 1.65 at 2.5) or Money Lines (straight out wins or losses). The money is of course in the parlays -the best values are 5 or 6 team parlays but if you're feeling extra giddy -try a 9, 10, even a 14 team parlay for a few bucks. A 14 team parlay can pay out a lot of $$$. Much, much better than what Pro Line can offer.

I use the spreads to track movement. The sharp money will usually move the spreads early in the week and public money (betting based a lot on team favorites and sentiment - plus a lot of public money are of people betting on last years results) will move the line a bit more by Sunday. I usually lay bets closer to Sunday as well, depending on the line movement -for example, yesterday I put a late bet on Detroit. But had the 'boys not screwed me on that ticket, I would have won another ticket based on having Seattle minus 2.5 on one ticket (winner) and Detroit plus 6.5 on another ticket (winner too).
 

healer677

Dos XX at Senor Frogs
Jan 13, 2004
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Right now I'm also loving the Ravens. After that show of awesome D in the middle, I like them at home to beat the hell out of a confused looking Oakland squad. I'm considering another set with Baltimore on the money line and Teaser.

The steal of the week might be Seattle in their home opener against Arizona. The Cards are dogs by 7. I think they'll cover. They dodged the Superbowl curse - most team that lose the superbowl, lose their first game. But Seattle dodged that bullet, I think they'll play better but the Cards looked good with their new look offense. The Pats are also faves by 6. This may well require a long hard look. I like the Pats to maybe cover 6, if not I may tease this line up to double digits, so instead of NE at plus 6 maybe move it, let's say....10.5? DO you think NE will win by 10.5 against the Jets? Not likely, but I'm interested in the payout.

Although I like what I saw form the Eagles, this game is a no touch against the NY football Giants.

I've capped myself to a max of $200 / week on the NFL anything (if any) I make after that goes to March Madness.lol.
 

Brookstone

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Sep 11, 2004
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Last year, i completely stayed away from the teasers, as in the past i didnt really have much success, and as well, at times the payouts were too low to my likings. I played a lot of parlays with moneylines, maybe 1 spread in a 2,3 game parlay depending on the odds. Had good success early but after midway it started going downhill. Then again football isnt really my thing, more basketball. This week i played 4 , 2game parlays with the lines, won chi and ind, and have Was and SD to cover tonights. I might try playing the teasers a bit this year again though, see how things go.
I also like playing the weekly propicks pools thru proline.Hoping to hit a big 1 on that lol
 

Ref

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Oct 29, 2002
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healer677 said:
They dodged the Superbowl curse - most team that lose the superbowl, lose their first game. But Seattle dodged that bullet
I wonder how many Superbowl losers opened up against the Lions?
 

ottawasub

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Mar 20, 2005
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Minnesota salvaged one of my tickets last night, so I made a profit for a change.

The spread that caught my eye for Week 2 as being too high is Denver -10.5 against Kansas City. I know Trent Green is out, but Plummer looked horrible against the Rams. Asking him to cover 10 pts against KC may be expecting too much.
 

Dimitri

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Apr 22, 2004
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week 1 for me a sweep

i but 90% of my money to bet on chi bears...which i won huge..i took half of that put it on indy -3.5 and then took half that bankroll put it on sd -3......next week spreads are big and money lines will be HUGE...iam gonna do a 2 team and 3 team 7 point teaser......pics i like nyg +3.5 will go to (+10.5)
then i love bears -7.5, will be -.5, then nwo -1 will be +6, bills +6.5 will be +13.5,


my advice speads to much, money line will make games not worth playing its time to pull out the teaser
 

healer677

Dos XX at Senor Frogs
Jan 13, 2004
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Good show Dimitri!

Actually Seattle's win vs Detroit is significant......

On the road and I consider things like the superbowl hangover. The year before Philly lost to Atlanta at home, Carolina to Green Bay at home, Oakland to Tennesse at home, St Louis to Denver at home, NYG to Indy at home and Tennesse to Miami at home. The last six Super Bowl runner ups opened their season at home -all six lost, and these are the ones I can remember. It may not have been against the Lions, but they opened at home and not all the teams opened against juggernauts. You can't underestimate homefield in the NFL - to me, this Seattle win -going cross country, on the road; is still a huge win. This is one of those stats that mean nothing or means everything -it's like the TB not winning in GB when the temperature at kick off is below 29 degrees.lol. But TB does have a terrible record in GB when the temp is below 29 degrees.

I should have listened to myself -I swore off betting on any team that had Jeff "the cancer" George or Jake "the snake" Plummer *dumbdumbdumb*

Congrats on that Minnesota win ottawasub -I placed way too much faith on Greg Williams' D last night.
 
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curiousone_69

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Apr 16, 2006
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St. Louis -3 @ SF looks tempting. Just because SF was able to score against Arizona on the road, I don't think they can win against the impressive performance by St. Louis.
New Orleans -2 @ GB
Carolina -2 @ Minnesota
TB +5.5 @ Atlanta.
I've just put through a 3-point teaser:
St. Louis pk, New Orleans +1, Atlanta -2.5; Carolina +1 risking $150 to win $700.

Actually, I wanted Detroit and Buffalo to pull out the upset because I had them in the OLGC pools. Had they won, I would have had great chance of winning...that damn safety and fg cost me.

Good luck everyone!
 

healer677

Dos XX at Senor Frogs
Jan 13, 2004
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After almost a week of analysis -it seems the sharp money picks in Vegas are in, favorites for money lines - are Chicago at home vs Detroit -the Bears have no listed key injuries right now. New Orleans at Green Bay - no injuries to report there. Cincinnati at home vs Cleveland - CJ's playmate TJ's heel is probable as of today. Houston at Indy -no injuries there. Expect Buffalo to get bum rushed by a healthy Miami team. Oakland travels to Baltimore -the Ravens have 3 questionable -Heap TE, Lewis RB and the kicker Stover. Arizona travels to Seattle -the Seahawks lost their TE Stevens to a knee injury. Titans visits the Chargers - SD is healthy. KC goes to Denver and Denver's RB Bell is probable with an injured finger. NE visits the Jets and Brady is listed as probable with a shoulder injury (but he'll likely play.). and Dallas, no injuries reported; is favored over Washington.

I decided to play a 10 team parlay -7 point teaser. I ended up with:

Colts minus 6, Bengals minus 3, Bears minus 2, Packers plus 9 (this I might regret), Rams plus 4 (this one I really like), Seattle on a pick 'em, The Pats plus 1, Charger minus 5, Detroit and Chicago under 39 and TB and Falcons over 29.

I'm still not sure on the Packers game -hoping someone shows up this week for GB. But, I'm working on a theory here -when two crappy teams meet -take the home team plus the points.

Plus I did a bit more digging -the last 5 teams that lost in the superbowl, the last 5 years; have a combined regular season record below .500. Interesting to some, useless to others but a fact's a fact.
 
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curiousone_69

New member
Apr 16, 2006
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Can't f***en believe Detroit lose by 24! I had a teaser with Detroit +15.5 ($50 for $1000).

Hope you had a much better day...
 

ottawasub

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Mar 20, 2005
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I`m never betting on any St. Louis Rams games ever again. They win when you think they`ll suck, they suck when you think they`ll win.
 

topcat

Banned
Aug 6, 2002
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hammertm said:
They did the same fricken thing opening week September 11th, 2005 and lost to S.F. 28-25 and again on December 24th, 2005 losing 24-20 to the 9ers to burn me big both times. You think we would've all learned...... i sure didn't. :mad:

I think history dictates the "Lambs" never play well when they head out
on the Road, espically in San Fran.That should have been a warning sign
regardless on how bad the Niners are.
 

healer677

Dos XX at Senor Frogs
Jan 13, 2004
2,154
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You're right topcat -St Louis can't buy a win vs the Niners -knew it, bet against it and it burned me on a pne leg loss for half my tickets. Stupid, stupid.
 

mrpolarbear

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Sep 10, 2001
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Week 2 was nice for me , went 3 and 0 on some line bets. Da Bears -9 , over 32 in that game and the Aints -3.
 
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