Week 4 - Big Ben revealed?

[healer677]

Week 4 coming up and I say it's a good thing Pittsburgh has the bye week. NE, with it's depleated defenseive secondary and line backing group; beat the Steelers at home. Ben's numbers have never been too impressive to me - he never throws more than 20 passes for completions consistently, never for 300 yds or more - I think this guy is a lot of hype. I just kind of smirk when I hear comparisons made with Montana, Marino and Elway. His winning streak was predicated on a weak schedule last year and a lot of close games won by the defense. I'm curious to see what all the rest of the Defensive co-ordinators in the league will do now.

So much for that - early lines are up for a few teams.

Houston @ Cincinnati -10
Indy -7 @ Tennesse
Detroit @ Tampa Bay -6.5
Buffalo -1 @ New Orleans ...Lose-man can't cover this?!
Minnesota @ Atlanta -6
Dallas @ Oakland -3
Green Bay @ Carolina -7

The rest of the lines should be up by tomorrow by 10a.m.

 

[healer677]

more odds and a shift

Well,

Indy is up to 7.5 against Tennesse

Seattle @ Washington -2 ...cant figure this one out
San Diego @ New England -6
StLouis @ NYGiants -3

There's four more pairings that haven't listed their odds yet ...waiting. I'm wondering if this is the weekend the weather comes into play for the teams in the East.

 

[minnie_me]

Ben's numbers have never been too impressive to me - he never throws more than 20 passes for completions consistently, never for 300 yds or more -

Sounds a lot like a guy named Brady.

FYI - Ben's QB rating prior to week three was something like 150+. It's still early but the way he has played the first three weeks, it is hard to believe he is only in his second season of pro football.

 

[healer677]

QB ratings are higher if you don't throw the ball - by the way, in Bradys first year he threw for about 118 more attempts with 68 more completions than Ben. Ben does not throw the ball and cannot win games on his own. He won't cost you games, but to make comparisons to Montana , Elway and Marino is silly - and Brady - has three rings in 4 years. Rothlisberger won't lose you any games, but he won't win you any with his arm.

Any comparisons of Big Ben to any of the other greats is grossly premature. He is only in his second year and hasn't won anything yet.

 

[ottawasub]

So much for that - early lines are up for a few teams.

Houston @ Cincinnati -10
Indy -7 @ Tennesse
Detroit @ Tampa Bay -6.5
Buffalo -1 @ New Orleans ...Lose-man can't cover this?!
Minnesota @ Atlanta -6
Dallas @ Oakland -3
Green Bay @ Carolina -7

The rest of the lines should be up by tomorrow by 10a.m.

As much as I love to make fun of Buffalos struggles, I think they should take New Orleans this week. Losman (or Lose-man) made his mistakes yesterday, but it`s only his third game; very few QBs star right at the start. It`s a learning process. The Saints on the other hand - it`s going to be a very long year for that poor team.Don`t be surprised to see them lose 12 games this year.

Speaking of teams that are in for a tough season, how deflated must Green Bay be right now? Two tough losses at home and now they have to go on the road vs Carolina with the whole country watching on Monday night and their confidence totally shot. Favre has pulled rabbits out of the hat before, but this might be too much for him.

 

[slowandeasy]

Sounds a lot like a guy named Brady.

FYI - Ben's QB rating prior to week three was something like 150+. It's still early but the way he has played the first three weeks, it is hard to believe he is only in his second season of pro football.

Not being a Steeler fan, I would love to crap all over Ben.....

But as minnie_me states, the guy is in his second season... Same number as Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and some others that I don't feel like looking up.

Rothlesberger is a quality QB... I guess when you go undefeated for the regular season, win a few playoff games, then have your weaknesses exposed by NE in the playoffs, the haters are ready to crap all over you...

He seems to be a quality guy, and a good QB... he will rebound... hopefully, the next time that Pittsburgh meets NE, Cower will have a better game plan in place... then again, I thought that he would have had a better on this time

 

[kwong_1978]

Saw how San Diego played last night by giving LT all the touches he deserved, I am thinking they might upset NE. Then again, never would I bet against Brady. That guy knows how to win.

 

[slowandeasy]

Saw how San Diego played last night by giving LT all the touches he deserved, I am thinking they might upset NE. Then again, never would I bet against Brady. That guy knows how to win.

Normie... how are you doing....

I am a charger fan... but I am not sure that I would put money on them against NE...

 

[minnie_me]

QB ratings are higher if you don't throw the ball - by the way, in Bradys first year he threw for about 118 more attempts with 68 more completions than Ben. Ben does not throw the ball and cannot win games on his own. He won't cost you games, but to make comparisons to Montana , Elway and Marino is silly - and Brady - has three rings in 4 years. Rothlisberger won't lose you any games, but he won't win you any with his arm.

Any comparisons of Big Ben to any of the other greats is grossly premature. He is only in his second year and hasn't won anything yet.

Comparing Big Ben's first year to Brady's first year is too black and white. The NE team's offensive make up in Brady's first few years is very different then the team that Ben is leading today. In fact, it would be a better to compare the last two years, as at that time, Corey Dillon joined NE and finally gave them a credible running game - much the same as in Pittsburgh. As you know, when you have a balance offensive attack, you don't need to throw 40 - 50 passes a game.

Now that NE has that balance attack (well they did last year but this year Dillon is off to a slow start) you will notice that Brady's attempts dropped significantly.

I don't disagree that comparing Big Ben to the greats including Brady is silly and jumping the gun. Having said, give credit where credit is due.

 

[homonger]

Ben does not throw the ball and cannot win games on his own. He won't cost you games, but to make comparisons to Montana , Elway and Marino is silly - and Brady - has three rings in 4 years. Rothlisberger won't lose you any games, but he won't win you any with his arm.

Any comparisons of Big Ben to any of the other greats is grossly premature. He is only in his second year and hasn't won anything yet.

I pretty much agree, and honestly think that Big Ben is probably more physically gifted than we give him credit for here, but he simply doesn't have to use it because of the team he plays for. It's an enviable position, to be a young quarterback placed in a situation where your job is relatively simple and you don't have to be a superman. When you think about the Losmans, Ortons, and Eli Mannings of the league, you realize Big Ben pretty much has it made.

Back to the topic of picks, I am so frustrated at how lousy I have done so far this year (6-9), that I am picking from a hat this week. I can't possibly do any worse.

 

[healer677]

more odds and a shift and lessons learned

Indy @ Tennessee keeps moving up and down - now it's back to -7 for Indy

Seattle @ Washington - 2 -how are the Skins favored?

Denver @ Jacksonville -4 -Jak barely beat the hapless Jets last week, Denver smoked a much improved KC team...hmmm...

Buffalo @ NO stands as a pick em now. Lose-man may yet prove to be a great QB- but right now, he's getting shelled -his yds are going down faster than a Thai hooker. Play it right -there's money to be made from his misfortunes.

NYJ @ Baltimore -7.5 -Jets have NO QBS, can Orton score more than a td to cover the spread. Jets are in shambles.

Philly @ KC -2.5 -Phi has no kicker and a hurting QB...do they have the heart to keep it close in Arrowhead?

Sf and Arizona are playing a neutral site game - but Az is just plain horrible...and Warner is out.

A footnote as well - Lessons from Week 3 -
- don't bet against the Pats, even on the road against a good team. The Pats came in big for me this weekend, I guess this is a good lesson to keep in mind for the most part. It seems the harder the climb, the better they play. The Pats know how to win with different players - Dillon might be off to a slow start but they were winners before he got there. Dillons slow start might have to do with a rookie left side on the O-line.

- Assuming favorites winning does not ensure them covering - Colts, Rams, Bucs, Cowboys and the Eagles. This is where I lost some coin.

 

[ottawasub]

The pro-line spreads are out today and the one eye-catcher is New Orleans favoured by 1.5 over Buffalo. As bad as Buffalo has been the last two weeks, the Saints have been worse. Plus it`s not like they really have home field advantage.

- Except San Diego to come up flat. They were phenomenal Sunday night, but they were desperate. That usually only gets you so far. There`s no way LT will run over the Patriots like that.

- Indy is due for a breakthrough offensively; btw their best offensive performane last year was against Tennessee ( 51-24)

 

[healer677]

Numbers are up -early Point Spread lines

Game 1 - San Diego @ New England -6.5 - SD is 1-2/NE 2-1

Vegas has this line at 5.5 and it went down from the open. Last week SD finally figured it out - run LT and you'll do fine. LT ran for 192 yds on 21 carries with 3 tds and even threw for a td. Lorenzo Neal is a wrecking ball - one of the most underrated players in the league. But there has to be a weakness- SD has no pass rush and have a hell of a time stopping 3rd and long. This is their Achilles heel - Belichik knows that. Harrison is out for the year - shame - a safety who hits like a LB - considering NE is weak in the LB group this may be a soft spot for short routes but LT might have a tough time running vs the D line. The Giants D was soft - Cottonnelle soft. NE is something else. There's no sense discussing Brady - his numbers and performance speak for themself. Maybe take SD to keep it inside a td. If it looks like rain - maybe take NE for less than a td.

Game 2 - Denver @ Jacksonville -3.5 - Den is 2-1/Jak 2-1

Jaksonville is tough on D (ok so it was vs the Jets) but consider this -4 sacks, 2 int's, 8 hurries and 2 ko'd QBS. The OT win in NY was good though. Jak has the best shut down corners in the league - though they are having troubles in the red zone. Denver lost Bailey -this is a major problem. Denver has to run -use Anderson and Bell and eat the clock. Denver is playing off a short week after a big MNF win. Plummer is having trouble throwing for tds- the less the Snake handle the ball -the better. I'll take Jaksonvilles D on this and lay out for the 3.5

Game 3 - Houston @ Cincinnati -10.5 - Hou 0-3/Cin 3-0

This line seems large but in some betting circles Cin is as high as 13. Cin is explosive on offense and opportunistic on D (16 take aways -leads the league). Cin has only allowed 28 points so far and they had back to back 5 int games (this is impressive). Houston farking stinks - the are last on almost every stat. Hurricane Rita caused havoc on their practise schedule. Carr is on pace to be sacked 104 times for this year...and their best reciever Andre Johnson is averaging less than 20 yards ....PER GAME! Take Cincy.

Game 4 - Indy -7.5 @ Tennessee - Ind 3-0/Ten 1-2

Indys D is better....but...their offense is like a smoldering volcano - this is the same QB who threw for 49tds last year - this offense can and will break out one day. Is it today? Indy allowed 16 points in 3 games. Manning torched Romeo's boys last week at 19/23 passing. Now the Colts averaged 15.6 pts against Baltimore's and Jaksonvilles D - a softer D may encourage Manning to earn his bonus. Ten lost RB Henry for 4 games. They have a tough D line but a soft secondary - Manning might just rip them a new one. BUT Fisher is great at covering as a home dog. I'm tempted to take Indy. Manning can't keep quiet forever.

Game 5 - Philly @ Kansas City -2.5 - Phi 2-1/KC 2-1

KC is coming off a short week after being spanked in Denver. KC's D got torched for 221 yds on the ground. They have to fix this. But Phi has no kicker and a QB with a bruised sternum and strained ab muscle - he's one hit from sitting down. It's about even but I'll take the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

Game 6 - Detroit @ Tampa Bay -7.5 - Det 1-1/TB 3-0

Vegas has this at 6.5. Det is coming off a bye - does it matter? Detroit has to run the ball - they have to use Kevin Jones for at least 30 touches. That being said - TB allows about 52 yards per game on the ground and I dont think Detroit's O line can keep up with the hard driving, stunting, all day blitzing TB D. TB is looking better -32 points in 3 games and the D allows the 3rd fewest points in the league. Cadillac is rolling. I see a big game here for him at home. Take TB.

Game 7 - St Louis @ NYG -3.5 - StL 2-1/NYG 2-1

Martz is a bone head...and a lucky one at that. His team dodged 2 last minute drives from 2 teams for their 2 wins. WR Bruce may be in trouble with turf toe. Even in last week's loss Jr looked good - it was the Giants' D that lost that game. Manning looked poised in hostile SD. The D has to play better - last week they got torched on 45 points, 25 first downs, 485 yards offense-there was no O line pressure, they allowed 8 yds per carry ...both rushing AND recieving! They had no sacks and no blitzes. I think they might try harder at home. Martz's wake up call is due - Giants plus points.

Game 8 - Buffalo @ New Orleans -1.5 -Buf 1-2/NO1-2

Takeo is done - so is Buffalo's D. This makes them soft in the middle with no inside pass rush -Milloy and Fletcher can only do so much in this department.
Their D last week gave up 24 first downs and 236 yds rushing. Lose-man was 10/23 for 75 yards...75 YARDS! TOTAL (Brady had 12-12 for 160 in the 4th quarter vs Pit). Lose-man's numbers are getting worse - total yards. He has no passing accuracy and he's scared. He plays like a scared QB. NO is inconsistent. Period.

 

[healer677]

more thoughts...

A parting thought about Brooks in New Orleans - he is in the top ten QBS in the league in passing yards- ahead of Favre, Big Ben, Warner, Jr Manning, McNair, Delhomme, the Snake. He's ahead of Lose-man in QB rating, tds thrown, completions and yds per game 253 to 119. I'll take Brooks - I'll take an inconsistent team against a downright shitty QB.

Game 9 - Seattle 2-1 @ Washington 2-0 -2.5

I like the skins but, favored? Coming off a bye the skins are rested and injury free. Seattle only has to hand the ball off to Alexander...period. Brunnell did fuck all for 56 minutes against Dallas - then Santana saved his ass with two game winning catches. I'm tempted to take Seattle to keep it close.

Game 10- NYJ 1-2 @ Baltimore -7.5

The question is can Baltimore score more than a touchdown or two...maybe. Their D is solid. The Jets are screwed...period. Take Baltimore.

Game 11- Minnesota 1-2 @ Atlanta 2-1 -6.5

This is a lot harder than it looks. Personally, I'll pass on this. If Vick decides to pass more, run less and protect his hamstring -they'll cover. If Vick has enough sense to use the double D's (Dunn and Duckett) - they ran for 172 yds last week - they'll cover. But if Atlanta gives Minnesotas offense a chance - they'll kill the spread.

Game 12- Dallas 2-1 @ Oakland 0-3 -3.5

Wins by Dallas in SF and SD are good - that frigging collapse the Skins - BAD.
Moss will smoke the Dallas secondary (if a two bit reciever like Santana Moss can burn them-Randy will violate them.) Dallas' secondary also gave up 9 receptions to McCardell for 123 yards and Santana got 142 yards. Oakland is too good to keep losing. Dallas is in trouble. I'll take the Raiders at home.

Game 13- San Francisco and Arizona -2.5 in MexicoCity

How is Arizona favored? Take Frisco. Arizona has no QBs and they looked farking terrible last week - with no chance of looking better anytime soon.

Game 14 - Green Bay 0-3 @ Carolina 1-2 -8.5

Favre has a lot of heart - the team is no good but 8.5? I'll take GB. Delhomme is self destructive (check Miami game).

 

[VincenzoTurismo]

The New England Patriot's do not have as many big names as some other teams. The do however play exceptionally well as a team. Tom Brady is the king of last second comeback's and this was evident in the Pat's first Super Bowl win over St. Louis, and numerous time's since then.

But, they did not deserve to win this game in regulation. They got more luck this time than they could have hoped for. An extra 52 seconds to be exact.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2173143

Ciao,

VT

 

[Dimitri]

ne time is over

SD CHARgers this week plus 6.5 woooooooooooo

 

[homonger]

Although it's still early in the season, this is a "must win" week for me. With a crappy 6-9 record so far, it's make or break time.

My picks:

TB -6.5 vs. Det
NE -5.5 vs. Sd
JAX -4.5 vs. Den
CIN -9.5 vs. Hou
Buff +1.5 vs NO

My alternate game is ATL -5.5 vs. Minn

Here's a tip, everyone, bet the opposite. I feel like George Costanza.

 

[shack]

shack's POW

My pick for this week is to take Tennessee +7 vs. Indy. Hope to keep my streak going. So far this year I'm 25-20-1 vs. the spread (respectable IMO). The "expert" in the Star is 17-28-1.

I think I'm taking Cinci in my survivor pool. Still 11 guys left. Nobody got knocked out last week.

 

[ottawasub]

A couple questions about tomorrows games:

- At what point would you say the spread in the Oakland/Dallas game is too big? Pro-Line has it at 4.5. The Raiders have looked good against three very tough teams, I can`t believe Collins hasn`t thrown a pick yet this year, but Dallas is hardly a pushover. I hope Oakland isn`t counting on Janikowski to get them a clutch field goal, he`s been crappy so far. Only 3/6 on FGs, and the 3 he got were all under 30 yards.

- Everybody is saying to take SF over Arizona because of Warner being out; it is possible that the Cards may be better without him? Face it, he`s been finished for at least a few years. SF still looks like good bet, you`re getting points on them and their only 2 wins last year were against Arizona, but Warner`s abscence may be overrated.

 

[healer677]

hammertm -

those are excellent teaser picks.

shack -

I think Cincinnati would be a great pic for a survivor pool, but; be weary though - they're going to lose a couple, just hope it isn't this week.