STD Risk Calculator

[mrsCALoki]

I had understood HIV from unprotected oral to be quite rare, not impossible, but not at all common.
And that risks were higher for bacterial STI's through unprotected oral, then HIV.
Is that not correct?

In general, yes.

For a woman the risk is higher.

In general, any ulceration (bleeding gums?) or break in the skin is required for the HIV virus to be present in the mouth and in the other direction from the mouth into the blood stream. However some things make that more likely are often done either before or after oral sex (brushing teeth, etc).

In addition bacterial infections in the throat make the transmission of HIV much much more common. One of the more believable theories as to why HIV infection is so high in Africa is because of the bacterial infections are so common and provide an easy way for the virus to be transmitted. Nothing is ever as simple as people think.

 

[msog87]

Interesting anecdote. Now go read papers published that are based on a little more facts than what you think.

medhelp rocks, ive read it for hours. They are world renowned infectious disease expert MD's with decades of experience with STDs. just like economics, health & fitness, the majority of "experts" don't know what they are talking about.

 

[msog87]

In general, yes.

For a woman the risk is higher.

In general, any ulceration (bleeding gums?) or break in the skin is required for the HIV virus to be present in the mouth and in the other direction from the mouth into the blood stream. However some things make that more likely are often done either before or after oral sex (brushing teeth, etc).

In addition bacterial infections in the throat make the transmission of HIV much much more common. One of the more believable theories as to why HIV infection is so high in Africa is because of the bacterial infections are so common and provide an easy way for the virus to be transmitted. Nothing is ever as simple as people think.

your odds of getting HIV from oral sex either giving or receiving is about 1 in 10,000. There have been no proven cases of it ever happening, and the doctors on medhelp have said in their lifetime they have never had a patient or known of any other people that have contracted it that way. you also cant get HIV from eating pussy, the only way it can be done is if shes on her period and you have a cut in your mouth. HIV is very hard to transmit, the odds of getting it with unprotected anal is 1 in 100, with unprotected vag sex its 1 in 1000. there have been many cases where one partner has unknowingly had hiv and has had unprotected sex with their wife or husband for months or years yet did not transmit the virus.

 

[msog87]

I work in a hospital, and ill give you some real world experience: the only people ive seen with HIV in 5 years were gay men and IV drug users. The only exception was one woman who immigrated from africa. all the shit you hear in the politically correct media and school system is BS, aids is a gay disease and a junkie disease. would I ever have unprotected sex anyway with a strange woman? no.

 

[S.C. Joe]

There has been a few times were dirty needles have been reused in health clinics and dentist offices

There is also more to worry about then just STD's

 

[pointz]

This calculator cannot be taken seriously by most members since there's no field to enter the number of escort partners you are seeing :eyebrows:. Still it seems that the risk is fairly low. I must admit that the online images of HPV-induced warts do look nasty though.

 

[S.C. Joe]

I should have died a few times by now, instead I'm pretty darn healthy as far as I can tell

 

[ug00100]

Nonsense. If it were a significant risk there would be numerous cases.

There are numerous cases, dummy.

From an epidemiological perspective, it is very difficult to tell how many HIV infections come from unprotected oral alone versus unprotected vaginal sex, because the two behaviors so often occur together, confounding research.

However, there are studies of men who exclusively do unprotected oral sex that indicate that there are significant rates of transmission of HIV from unprotected oral alone. Granted, the risk is far lower, but the behavior is also much more common.

From the Center for Disease Control (CDC):

numerous studies have demonstrated that oral sex can result in the transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs)

The risk of HIV transmission from an infected partner through oral sex is much less than the risk of HIV transmission from anal or vaginal sex. Measuring the exact risk of HIV transmission as a result of oral sex is very difficult

Source: http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/resources/factsheets/pdf/oralsex.pdf

Now you know.

 

[ug00100]

This calculator cannot be taken seriously by most members since there's no field to enter the number of escort partners you are seeing :eyebrows:. Still it seems that the risk is fairly low. I must admit that the online images of HPV-induced warts do look nasty though.

The risk is per-event.

If your risk of coming out "disease free" is 95%, then after 3 encounters, your chances are (0.95)^3 = 86%. After 10 encounters, 60% is the chance of being disease free.

 

[ug00100]

Which is ridiculous as well if it is a meant to represent the risk of a single encounter.

People with high risk behavior get infected because they have sex repeatedly and eventually infection becomes a near certainty with enough exposures, but single encounter transmission rate is relatively low.

This is specious.

Every event carries an absolute risk which can usually be effectively estimated. The fact that you can become infected after having sex only once is proof of this. Single encounter transmission rate for high-risk activity (e.g. receiving anal sex with ejaculation, without a condom, from a partner with a high viral load) can be extremely high/significant.

It is true that lifestyle and patterns of behavior are very significant in determining who ends up with STDs, obviously, but this is not to say that analysis of single events is useless because transmission rates are insignificant. For bacterial STIs, palpable genital warts, active HSV lesions, and HIV (for HIV, specifically depends on behaviour), transmission risk for single encounter can be extremely high. It can be as high as 80% for gonorrhea from a single event.

Once again, please check your facts!

 

[ug00100]

Not to mention that many of the good old STIs can infect eyes, throat, etc as well as the genital area. Oral Gonorrhea is returning with a vengeance. And Cephalosporin-Resistant Gonorrhea in North America makes that more serious. The IV drug resistant strains emerging in Asia makes it a permanent condition.

So overall I agree with you, 5-6% chance of of infection from a single 'safe sex encounter' that includes a not so safe bbbj sounds conservative.

Exactly, there are now confirmed drug-resistant cases in the United States. We have to treat with ceftriaxone intramuscular injections with doxy, because oral cefixime no longer works.

 

[ug00100]

I work in a hospital, and ill give you some real world experience: the only people ive seen with HIV in 5 years were gay men and IV drug users. The only exception was one woman who immigrated from africa. all the shit you hear in the politically correct media and school system is BS, aids is a gay disease and a junkie disease. would I ever have unprotected sex anyway with a strange woman? no.

You are completely wrong.

According to CDC, 12875 of approximately 46913 infections (that is 27.4%) were as a result of heterosexual activity.

Source: http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/basic.htm#hivaidsexposure

 

[S.C. Joe]

The risk is per-event.

If your risk of coming out "disease free" is 95%, then after 3 encounters, your chances are (0.95)^3 = 86%. After 10 encounters, 60% is the chance of being disease free.

So what happens if your over 100 but stiill are STD free ?

That is the problem with these charts--the real world is much different

 

[ug00100]

Two small points:

1) The discussion was based on condoms vaginal, and BBBJ so why tell us about the low risk for bacterial transfer with condoms?

I was making the point that you are generally at low risk for bacteria/gonorrhea acquired via oral route if you use condoms consistently for vaginal intercourse. There is still the possibility of acquiring genital gonorrhea via pharyngitis (due to colonization with N. gonorrhea), but condoms offer fairly good protection for these infections. Moreover, most SP's do STI testing which would catch such infections. So as long as you aren't talking about street-walkers who don't access medical care, the risk is fairly low given the behavior.

Chances of getting HIV are very low for condoms with vaginal intercourse.

Risk of herpes (HSV1/HSV2) is significant. If one partner is asymptotically shedding herpes, the risk is quite high. It is even higher with active outbreak. A single encounter has significant risk if there is shedding. Condoms offer incomplete protection. Also, due to high number of partners, most SPs are infected with HSV1/HSV2.

Risk of HPV (which can cause genital warts and cervical cancer) is significant given that condoms offer almost no protection because HPV is transmitted by skin-to-skin and doesn't necessarily require mucosa (e.g. vaginal tissue, foreskin, glans of penis, etc.). You often diagnose it in these areas though. People always say they have never had a sexually-transmitted infection. In fact, HPV infections are very common, they clear up pretty quickly, and they generally cause no disease (no warts, no symptoms). Sometimes, however, if infected with the right strain, it may cause disease. If your partner has warts (which can be concealed inside the vagina) the transmission risk is much higher (as high as 50% from a single encounter.

Syphilis is possible, but generally the background rates are very low within Canada (except for gay men).

There are other infections we haven't discussed like trichomoniasis, shigella, etc. I have also seen strep throat (which is caused by bacteria S. pyogenes) on the penis, so there are a number of other possibilities that STD Risk Calculator is not addressing.

 

[pointz]

The risk is per-event.

If your risk of coming out "disease free" is 95%, then after 3 encounters, your chances are (0.95)^3 = 86%. After 10 encounters, 60% is the chance of being disease free.

Math looks right. So almost everyone on this board must have at least one of those then? Yikes :Eek:

 

[kahlua]

what's the signs if you have HIV?

 

[ug00100]

So what happens if your over 100 but stiill are STD free ?

That is the problem with these charts--the real world is much different

Of course models can't match all the intricacies of the real world. But for basic epidemiology you can get very close, which is sufficient to be useful. After 100 encounters, (0.95)^100 = 0.6%, meaning that 1 in 167 people following this behaviour will stay entirely disease free.

What this means, is that to begin with, assuming you are negative for HPV/Herpes/Chlamydia/Gonorrhea/Syphilis/HIV, and then you receive unprotected oral sex and have protected vaginal sex with 100 SPs, is that there is 99.4% chance that you will become positive for at least one of the above infections. There is a 1 in 167 chance that you will be totally negative.

Keep in mind that this particular risk figure is for people who have no infections to begin with: A lot of men in their 30s, especially those that use SPs a lot, do in fact have herpes. If you already have that infection, then obviously you can't "get it again" because you already have it and there is no cure, so then your risk of getting an STD goes down. The above figures would be for people who are negative for all infections.

 

[ug00100]

what's the signs if you have HIV?

Usually no signs whatsoever. But you may experience a flu-like episode after you become infected...

 

[pointz]

Usually no signs whatsoever. But you may experience a flu-like episode after you become infected...

I can't figure out whether you're an MD or a statistician . In any case, your figures seem fine.

 

[ug00100]

Math looks right. So almost everyone on this board must have at least one of those then? Yikes :Eek:

Well, according to those figures, the math is still on your side. The background figures they use on that site are from sex workers in the United States, so risk still depends a lot on how well SP get tested and treated for infections. With that said, a very significant proportion of SPs have herpes, and you can't cure it, so it is very likely that you will get herpes after enough encounters with SPs. Transmission rates for herpes though, on a per-event basis are pretty low, so it could take a number of years before you finally get infected. Interestingly, rates are twice as high for women than men. One other thing that is interesting is that HSV1 and HSV2 are generally mutually exclusive for site of infection. So if you are infected with HSV1 in your genital area (from receiving oral sex earlier in life), you will generally get less severe symptoms if you have an outbreak, and it will protect you from being infected with HSV2 at the genital site. Herpes is really not a big deal, it's more of a social stigma thing...

Generally if you use condoms for intercourse, that is the most important thing for your health. It's a lot less important for oral and few people use condoms for oral. If you end up with gonorrhea, herpes or HPV, it's not the end of the world. None of those infections will ruin your life, you just get the necessary treatment and move on. It's really the HIV you are worried about!