Putin's Russia & Ukraine updates

[NotADcotor]

OK. I mean, you're wrong. It's really that simple. Ukraine being in NATO actually makes things harder, not easier. You only need to look at two things to figure out why Finland is a major asset and Ukraine is actually a liability:

1. Carpathians
2. Murmansk

You said
"I don't know why people still think Ukraine was somehow a lynchpin to a NATO invasion. The biggest threat to Russia vis à vis NATO wasn't Ukraine, it was Finland"

How the Carpathians in any way blocks an invasion of Russia from a Ukraine in NATO when it's at the other end of the country is beyond me

Carpathian Mountains - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Also as for Murmansk, yeah, it's important, a lot of assets there and in the region but once it's taken, then what. Because Kola. And as for assets, if you really wanted to, you can fuck that shit up with missiles, attacks from the American carriers, much easier than attacking through bog and scrub. Hunting for moose and collecting 10-42, best kind, attacking, not so much.

Kola Peninsula - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And yes in the continuation war the Finns did well in an attack with limited goals but Germany did even better further south.

Then what, or to quote Dude where's my car... And Theeeen?

Whereas if NATO launches an attack from NATO you are closer to a lot more interesting stuff, serious population centers. Clear path to Moscow and Stalingrad [did I mention I am old as fuck]

Never mind that as WWII showed, the North is a pretty hard place to Advance, the Germans never made it anywhere near there, it's a pretty desolate place. OTOH The parts of Russia past Ukraine [as long as you don't go north into the Belarus and the marshes is pretty sweet for thrusting deep into the enemy rear.

So that would make you.... what's the word I am looking for, ah yes, wrong.

Now if you were talking about NATO on the defense, yes, Ukraine is a big open and vulnerable place whereas Finland is really defendable but considering how much trouble Russia is having with Ukraine, I doubt that's a worry.

 

[NotADcotor]

This base is shared with GRU 10th Separate Special Purpose Brigade. Guess which side they're on.

On the side of his Minions?

 

[NotADcotor]

According to Twitter, Wagner has taken Rostov-on-Don against little opposition, seizing the military headquarters there. And there is fighting in Voronezh, hundreds of miles away and north of Kharkiv. There is footage on Twitter.

Wait what? I didn't think his army was that large. Rostov on Don isn't on the way to Moscow and Voronezh is far far away from Rostov on Don.

I wouldn't think he would have the troops to strike out in two divergent directions like that unless others are joining him in some sort of March on Rome situation. [Well he is a chubby bald guy]

One would figure with all the internal troops Russia have and they do get military grade equipment that his progress is pretty sad for Russia unless again everyone is folding like a lawn chair and refusing to fight all 1918 all over again.

Worse case scenario, he gets crushed with some losses by Russia.

Or he wins, and gets Russia in the fight a bit better, but with lots of dislocation to the war effort

Or civil war which allows Ukraine to win much more easily.

As long as the nukes don't fall into questionable hands of course.

 

[jcpro]

The question you should be asking is what this mean for the Ukrainian conflict and it doesn't look like this "change " will be of any benefit on that front.

 

[mandrill]

Wait what? I didn't think his army was that large. Rostov on Don isn't on the way to Moscow and Voronezh is far far away from Rostov on Don.

I wouldn't think he would have the troops to strike out in two divergent directions like that unless others are joining him in some sort of March on Rome situation. [Well he is a chubby bald guy]

One would figure with all the internal troops Russia have and they do get military grade equipment that his progress is pretty sad for Russia unless again everyone is folding like a lawn chair and refusing to fight all 1918 all over again.

I don't get the Voronezh stuff either. Voronezh is on the road between Belgorod (the Russian side of the border opposite Kharkiv) and Moscow. I wonder if the Ukrainians started some proxy war shit there as a distraction.

Rostov I get. Prigozhin has simply pulled Wagner out of Ukraine and is now holding the regional military HQ city / hub. It's not exactly "driving on Moscow". It's more like "I got a big regional city and you can't get me out. So I'm sitting here."

 

[mandrill]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672506334615425024

 

[mandrill]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672500870947254273

 

[mandrill]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672544025373466625

 

[mandrill]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672525261529554944

 

[mandrill]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672575478366892034

 

[squeezer]

The question you should be asking is what this mean for the Ukrainian conflict and it doesn't look like this "change " will be of any benefit on that front.

So let me get this straight because you are the military "expert", Russia fighting on two fronts doesn't distract them from fighting Ukraine at all? If Wagner were to put up a good long battle, it would have no effect at all in the Ukrainian conflict?

 

[mandrill]

So let me get this straight because you are the military "expert", Russia fighting on two fronts doesn't distract them from fighting Ukraine at all? If Wagner were to put up a good long battle, it would have no effect at all in the Ukrainian conflict?

Aside from further collapsing Russian frontline morale....

 

[SchlongConery]

So let me get this straight because you are the military "expert", Russia fighting on two fronts doesn't distract them from fighting Ukraine at all? If Wagner were to put up a good long battle, it would have no effect at all in the Ukrainian conflict?

Yup. That's his delusional hope. He's too obstinate to take any developments into account. Once he's decided something, that's it.

 

[jcpro]

So let me get this straight because you are the military "expert", Russia fighting on two fronts doesn't distract them from fighting Ukraine at all? If Wagner were to put up a good long battle, it would have no effect at all in the Ukrainian conflict?

ROTFLMFAO!! Prigozhin is on the record that, if in charge, he'll throw EVERYTHING at Ukraine.

 

[mandrill]

ROTFLMFAO!! Prigozhin is on the record that, if in charge, he'll throw EVERYTHING at Ukraine.

There won't be anything left to throw.

 

[squeezer]

ROTFLMFAO!! Prigozhin is on the record that, if in charge, he'll throw EVERYTHING at Ukraine.

He's already stated that Russia had no reason whatsoever to have illegally invaded Ukraine has he not?

 

[mandrill]

ROTFLMFAO!! Prigozhin is on the record that, if in charge, he'll throw EVERYTHING at Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672592693971517440

 

[jcpro]

He's already stated that Russia had no reason whatsoever to have illegally invaded Ukraine has he not?

But, it has happened.

 

[SchlongConery]

The question you should be asking is what this mean for the Ukrainian conflict and it doesn't look like this "change " will be of any benefit on that front.

.Will it "be of any benefit on that front"?

ROTFLMAO!!!!


Russia is now engaged in an active CIVIL WAR. An active military coup is underway against Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov. Led by a very pissed off Prighozin and the demonstrably most effective military force in Russia. A force who have now been shot at, mined and assaulted more than five times by their fellow Russians.

Wagner has now taken full control over Rostov-on-Don and the Southern Command HQ of the Russian Military. That HQ being the Command Center of the Ukrainian "special military operation".
;-)

"What it means" in terms of the "Ukrainian conflict" is:

1. Putin, Shoigu and Gerasminov are going to reassess and reallocate whatever military resources they have available to protect themselves from Prigohzin and Wagner soldiers, as if their lives depend on it.

Because they do.

2. Wagner will not only no longer be available to fight in Ukraine. Nor to support Russian dalliances elsewhere. Nor to defend against the other Russian insurrections in Belgorod etc.

3. Russian troops and resources will now be redeployed to protect Putin's regime with the resultant dilution of forces in Ukraine.

4. And if you are going to say that Russia has virtually unlimited resources to redeploy ... they can barely find their ass with both hands when it comes to management and logistics. With the Southern Command HQ and their staff and soldiers surrendered, now occupied by Wagner I doubt the toilet paper is even being replaced in the General's private bathrooms.

So this means that the Russian military "top down" command structure is effectively FUBAR'd. And with whatever is left, dedicated to stopping Wagner from taking out Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov. Who, (Gerasimov) incidentally is personally now on the run and in hiding somewhere in Rostov-on-Don from Prigohzin himself for ordering the missile and other strikes against Prigizhin and some very pissed off Wagner mercenaries personally.

5. Rail and other logisitcs are going to be fucked up for weeks with moving shit to defend Moscow, all while blocking roads and rail to Moscow to prevent Wagner from getting to Moscow.


This means that Putin has a bigger and more existential war on his hands and simply can't also fight effectively in Ukraine.

As usual... Russian delusions have caused them to neuter themselves. Again. As I predicted many, many, many times in the Ukraine war discussions. Ukraine doesn't have to "win", they only have to let Russia run its predictable course and fail from within.

 

[jcpro]

.Will it "be of any benefit on that front"?

ROTFLMAO!!!!


Russia is now engaged in an active CIVIL WAR. An active military coup is underway against Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov. Led by a very pissed off Prighozin and the demonstrably most effective military force in Russia. A force who have now been shot at, mined and assaulted more than five times by their fellow Russians.

Wagner has now taken full control over Rostov-on-Don and the Southern Command HQ of the Russian Military. That HQ being the Command Center of the Ukrainian "special military operation".
;-)

"What it means" in terms of the "Ukrainian conflict" is:

1. Putin, Shoigu and Gerasminov are going to reassess and reallocate whatever military resources they have available to protect themselves from Prigohzin and Wagner soldiers, as if their lives depend on it.

Because they do.

2. Wagner will not only no longer be available to fight in Ukraine. Nor to support Russian dalliances elsewhere. Nor to defend against the other Russian insurrections in Belgorod etc.

3. Russian troops and resources will now be redeployed to protect Putin's regime with the resultant dilution of forces in Ukraine.

4. And if you are going to say that Russia has virtually unlimited resources to redeploy ... they can barely find their ass with both hands when it comes to management and logistics. With the Southern Command HQ and their staff and soldiers surrendered, now occupied by Wagner I doubt the toilet paper is even being replaced in the General's private bathrooms.

So this means that the Russian military "top down" command structure is effectively FUBAR'd. And with whatever is left, dedicated to stopping Wagner from taking out Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov. Who, (Gerasimov) incidentally is personally now on the run and in hiding somewhere in Rostov-on-Don from Prigohzin himself for ordering the missile and other strikes against Prigizhin and some very pissed off Wagner mercenaries personally.

5. Rail and other logisitcs are going to be fucked up for weeks with moving shit to defend Moscow, all while blocking roads and rail to Moscow to prevent Wagner from getting to Moscow.


This means that Putin has a bigger and more existential war on his hands and simply can't also fight effectively in Ukraine.

As usual... Russian delusions have caused them to neuter themselves. Again. As I predicted many, many, many times in the Ukraine war discussions. Ukraine doesn't have to "win", they only have to let Russia run its predictable course and fail from within.

LOL!!! Prigozhin will be in Moscow tomorrow. Beyond that EVERYTHING is just a speculation.