This is a question that has been asked in the Business, Finance and Investing many times. What is your definition of timing the market and in your own opinion is it possible. I will hold back on my definition and opinion on timing the market till a little later.
Is it possible to time the stock market?
- Thread starter Ceiling Cat
- Start date
In a sense, yes. You should learn about the business cycle and sector rotation.
As you see in this 1 year chart, you can see that Tech and communication is leading the bunch with utilities lagging. This shows risk on in the market and growth stocks have done their bull run. In theory, as the market rotates, tech should go down as defensive plays go in a bull cycle.
This is just the gist of it and a lot factors count.
Personally, according to this chart. I’m loading up on oil and gas. I know the next Ukraine/Gaza is just around the corner.
As you see in this 1 year chart, you can see that Tech and communication is leading the bunch with utilities lagging. This shows risk on in the market and growth stocks have done their bull run. In theory, as the market rotates, tech should go down as defensive plays go in a bull cycle.
This is just the gist of it and a lot factors count.
Personally, according to this chart. I’m loading up on oil and gas. I know the next Ukraine/Gaza is just around the corner.
You can also do with politicians do:
Or what insiders buy/sell:
finviz.com
I’m just getting the grasp of this but I’ve made predictable decisions from these knowledge.
I’m more of a swing trader so I try to master this well. Not a buy and hold kinda guy.
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Or what insiders buy/sell:
Latest Insider Trading - Insider Transactions - Form 4
Stock screener for investors and traders, financial visualizations.
finviz.com
I’m just getting the grasp of this but I’ve made predictable decisions from these knowledge.
I’m more of a swing trader so I try to master this well. Not a buy and hold kinda guy.
Yes, it is possible to time the market, using macroeconomic factors. For example, the Fed will lower interest rates in the next couple of years. When that happens, riskier assets do very well. Therefore, now is a good time to buy crypto and tech stocks. When they have run their course, it's good to rotate to defensive stocks such as Costco, Coke, etc.
If the definition of timing the market is to buy low and sell at a profit, then IMHO it is possible to time the market.
On Page #6 post #116 of the BCE thread Rajput said this :
[QUOTE="Ceiling Cat,
Raj. picks :
ENB 48.47 Close 48.67 +4.12%
T 23.35 Close 22.50 -3.64%
BCE 46.36 Close 46.35 - .02%
=====================================================
Cat picks :
ASM .77 Close 0.80 +3.89%
ATX 1.42 Close1.47 +3.52%
KTN .95 Close 1.00 +5.26%
[QUOTE="Ceiling Cat
[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
Here is the results after one 6½ session. If $10.000 of each stock were bought at open of market and sold at close of market Rajput would be up $46. (.15% gain) I would be up $1267. (4.22% gain)
While I do not claim to be able to predict the absolute low or high, I am able to approximate near low and high to make a profit 8 or 9 times out of 10 consistently.
If you were to make a profit of 10% a month and re-invest your profits. Your portfolio would triple annually.
On Page #6 post #116 of the BCE thread Rajput said this :
On page #7 post # 119 I ask him to post 3 stock picks. On page #7 post #121 he posted the following picks.
On post # 122 I post my picks.
[QUOTE="Ceiling Cat,
Raj. picks :
ENB 48.47 Close 48.67 +4.12%
T 23.35 Close 22.50 -3.64%
BCE 46.36 Close 46.35 - .02%
=====================================================
Cat picks :
ASM .77 Close 0.80 +3.89%
ATX 1.42 Close1.47 +3.52%
KTN .95 Close 1.00 +5.26%
[QUOTE="Ceiling Cat
[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
Here is the results after one 6½ session. If $10.000 of each stock were bought at open of market and sold at close of market Rajput would be up $46. (.15% gain) I would be up $1267. (4.22% gain)
While I do not claim to be able to predict the absolute low or high, I am able to approximate near low and high to make a profit 8 or 9 times out of 10 consistently.
If you were to make a profit of 10% a month and re-invest your profits. Your portfolio would triple annually.
next couple of years is quite an arbitrary length of time but I get your point do it before it does.
how do you know when the course has run before the course actually has run.
Most people are pure speculators. They buy stocks with the logic that Canadian Tire is big so it will do well, the economy will do better in time because we are/have come out of the pandemic. To time the market you have to have the ability to know if the course is running, when it starts, when it finishes. I prefer shorter time lines from 1 to 5 days.
[/QUOTE]
Here is the results after one 6½ session. If $10.000 of each stock were bought at open of market and sold at close of market Rajput would be up $46. (.15% gain) I would be up $1267. (4.22% gain)
While I do not claim to be able to predict the absolute low or high, I am able to approximate near low and high to make a profit 8 or 9 times out of 10 consistently.
If you were to make a profit of 10% a month and re-invest your profits. Your portfolio would triple annually.
[/QUOTE]
Nvidia has gained 20,000% in the last 10 years
[/QUOTE]
Nvidia has gained 20,000% in the last 10 years
[/QUOTE]
What would that 20,000% look like if you would have timed the stock and bought at the lows and sold at the highs?
Nvidia has gained 20,000% in the last 10 years
[/QUOTE]
What would that 20,000% look like if you would have timed the stock and bought at the lows and sold at the highs?
What would that 20,000% look like if you would have timed the stock and bought at the lows and sold at the highs?
[/QUOTE]
Probably would have missed out on gains
[/QUOTE]
Also you'd be taxed heavily
[/QUOTE]
Also you'd be taxed heavily
[/QUOTE]
Never be afraid to pay tax.
If you are afraid to pay tax, you better call Saul. I did. There are many ways you can avoid paying taxes. One way is the many film tax credits that you can have investing in film productions made in Canada, Quebec, Ontario.
The winter scenes of Better Call Saul were filmed in Quebec. When you invest in a production that does not make money, you can get a substantial tax credit. In productions that are a hit and make money, you get the bonus of sharing in profits...............and paying more taxes.
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If it is the case that you can time the market short term, then time a stock short term and sell to make a profit and move on to another one.
The example of Canadian Funds not being consistent is a bad example. If a fund has paid out between 7 to 8% annually for the last five years and only pays out 6% this year is not a reflection on how much profit they made. They are not obligated to pay a specific amount annually The true earnings can be hidden to the outsider. A fund can invest any amount they deem to be prudent in any stock. If a stock is bought low this year, they may expect a substantial profit in the future. Bonuses can be paid out to executives and employees. In both these cases the earnings and worth of the fund can be distorted.
Financial institutions make massive amounts of money from the publics deposits. It is estimated that they make between $250,000 to $450.000 per employee.
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No one has a perfect track record, the trick is to be right more often than you are wrong. If you are saying I only post my winning before the price rises but not my losers then I must truly be capable of achieving profit on majority of my trades. I only claim that I can whoop any U-man any trading day of the week, run circles around him and kick him in the ass every time I orbit him.
In fact, entries and exits are the secret. This is the method big financial institutions use. As the unsophisticated investor ( term used in the financial world ) drives the price up and down they step in and buy and sell early in the trend, they are out long before the price is unsustainable and reverts to the mean.
If you say mistakes are repeated, then if you have the right algorithm successes are repeated as well. You also have to have the ability to realize the changing market conditions and Improvise, Adapt and Overcome and adjust to the situation.
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lol, ceiling cat is a joke ... said he was completely cash back in April of last year and expected markets to drop 25 to 40 percent haahhaa...that's when i knew he was a troll
That is proof that I am a troll? That is proof that I am aware of the situation and that I am prudent. The situation in April 2023 was that the governments were tightening up the markets and preparing the population by announcing interest rate increases. They had to do this to stop or slow inflation. If I was truly a troll I would not be able to give mealy mouth weasels or U-men a rebuttal. The government was relentless and continued the interest rate increases and did slow inflation.
sprite09,
Are you all in or too scared to move because you are not aware of the true situation on the market? Are you the sort that collects your comfortable 4.5% on his GICs? I prefer to collect the 4.5% weekly or twice weekly. Go back to the recent BCE thread where I was challenged on March 19, the next day trading session I was able to achieve a 4.22% increase.. My record speaks for its self, show me your abilities.
