The 2025 Toronto Blue Jays

[shack]

This is why extrapolation from small samples is not statistically significant.

Then I don't understand why you were analyzing the numbers xmontrealer provided? Weekend vs. non-weekend games. Popularity of opponent. That is what I was questioning. Not whether you were right or wrong. I believe he provided raw data with no in depth analysis of what it meant. Analysis of a small sample is not a valuable pursuit.

 

[maurice93]

My post which you quoted referred specifically to home games #5 and 6.

The Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals are not as popular as some other road teams for a Toronto crowd. If the Jays had opened the home season against the Yankees, Red Sox or Tigers, 2025 attendance after six home dates may have been higher than in 2024. If they had played the Florida Marlins and the Chicago White Sox, the drop would likely have been larger.

Andres Gimenez will also not hit 81 home runs this season, even though that is his current pace after 3.7% of the season.

Toronto had Seattle (Mid-week)and Colorado (Weekend, Fri-Sun) to start last year. So it's 3/3 split in terms of weekend, although in reverse. And markets were uninteresting in both years.

You are correct that its a small sample, but I think the 13% probably has some meaning given the clear factor of a 2024 poor performance and fan frustration. Probably a decline in season ticket. But maybe it has none -- we will know more over next set of home games, which are a ways away now.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Between 1977 and 1978, the number of men in the US who listed their occupation as 'Elvis Presley Impersonator' on tax returns increased from 50 to 253, a 506% increase in a single year. If that trend had continued, by 2017 one out of every three employed men in the US would have been an Elvis Presley impersonator.

This is why extrapolation from small samples is not statistically significant

Shack wont understand that

 

[Zoot Allures]

Jays now 5-2, on the year!!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1907547450430128346

Washington is one of the worse teams in baseball but I just realized

None of the big three has dingered yet and when they start hitting HOMERS no one will beat us


For every dollar you bet for the Jays to win the big show vegas pays out $5880

Is that what +5880 means ? Seems like too big of a payout because if the Jays are near
the top at the deadline management will trade the farm system.

So, if I drop $100 on the Jays and they are an actual contender instead of a pretender at the deadline - the odds of that are way
less than +5880 - then the Jays unload the farm system to bring in a few all star rentals and the
Jays win the Big Show then I get 5880 times 100 = $588,000 over half a MILLION American DOLLARS ?

588000 times 1.4 = $ 823,200 Cnd ?

Did I do that right? Sounds crazy

 

[maurice93]

Washington is one of the worse teams in baseball but I just realized

None of the big three has dingered yet and when they start hitting HOMERS no one will beat us


For every dollar you bet for the Jays to win the big show vegas pays out $5880

Is that what +5880 means ? Seems like too big of a payout because if the Jays are near
the top at the deadline management will trade the farm system.

I wonder if Ceasers calculated for that when booking the odds

The +system is quoted in terms of return on a bet of $100.

So bet $100 (where odds are +5880), and you make a profit of $5880 if the Jays win the Series. Implied odds of about 59-1.

You don't need to bet a $100 though. You could be $10, but then you are only winning $588.

 

[onomatopoeia]

Then I don't understand why you were analyzing the numbers xmontrealer provided? Weekend vs. non-weekend games. Popularity of opponent. That is what I was questioning. Not whether you were right or wrong. I believe he provided raw data with no in depth analysis of what it meant. Analysis of a small sample is not a valuable pursuit.

I didn't analyze numbers provided by xmontrealer. He doesn't even post in this thread. Philip/ Toronto Passions remarked that attendance was down. I provided raw data and @maurice93 analyzed the data. You posted in between. That all happened on the previous page of this thread. Perhaps it's time to ask your doctor to give you the Alzheimer's vaccine shot?

 

[shack]

Clearly i was mistaken.

 

[Zoot Allures]

The +system is quoted in terms of return on a bet of $100.

So bet $100, and you make a profit of $5880 if the Jays win the Series. Implied odds of about 59-1.

You don't need to bet a $100 though. You could be $10, but then you are only winning $588.

Thankyou

So for a $100 USA I win $8,232 Cnd if Jays winout

Still, it sounds like a decent bet considering Jays will go for it
if they manage to be a genuine contender at the trade deadline.

This is a possiblity considering the vagaries of injuries as the Jays are a decent team, better than last year esp with Bo back and Santander in line up as that is two all star hitters we never has last year which is huge

If Judge goes down etc but Jays stay healthy is our best chance to be a contender

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Guess who's in 1st place in the AL East

 

[shack]

Guess who's in 1st place in the AL East

Magic number is down to 156.

 

[tml]

This is why extrapolation from small samples is not statistically significant.

Don't forget opening day 1988. Geotge Bell hit 3 home runs, but he did not end the season with 486.

 

[onomatopoeia]

Friday's game is at 3:10 PM, (New York Mets' home opener).

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Dogers now 8-0 and Braves 0-7

 

[onomatopoeia]

2025 Toronto Blue Jays Hitting Stats YTD

2025 Toronto Blue Jays Pitching Stats YTD

These are the mlb(dot)com page links, updated after the conclusion of each game.

 

[tml]

Friday's game is at 3:10 PM, (New York Mets' home opener).

The NY media will be all over Vladdy.

 

[Zoot Allures]

Power ranking for Jays is now 14th

Preseason Power Ranking: 18

Most encouraging sign: Is Bo Bichette back?

A series of maladies to his right leg undercut Bichette’s production from late 2023 through all of last season. (Bichette’s career OPS before his knee injury in August 2023 was .834; since his recovery it was .625 through the end of last season.)

When Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. have both been at their best, the Blue Jays tend to win 90-plus games, as they did in 2021 and 2022. Toronto has one more shot to put it all together behind that duo this year.

They did not mention acquisition of Santander. He has a history of being a late starter so no need to worry about him being a power bat so it looks like we are pretenders once again IE got a real shot at a wild card but that depends on pitching remaining healthy because we lack depth in that area (and everywhere else) and it sure looks like Bo is back to me

Captain Kirk is hitting as he is capable but my concern is him getting enough rest to keep hitting well as catching is a tough position and we do not have Jansen to give him the rest he needs when we did Kirk made the all star team

A real positive going unmentioned is Bowden Francis continuing from last year where he was best pitcher in baseball in last month of season. In his only start he had a no hitter through 5 innings . He is the Ace IMHO not number 4 starter as over a month of great pitching is a very good sample size

 

[Toronto Passions]

Springer Dinger!, 2-0 Jays

He’s playing great and making all of us eat our words and I love it. I’m so happy for him.

Philip

 

[Toronto Passions]

I didn't analyze numbers provided by xmontrealer. He doesn't even post in this thread. Philip/ Toronto Passions remarked that attendance was down. I provided raw data and @maurice93 analyzed the data. You posted in between. That all happened on the previous page of this thread. Perhaps it's time to ask your doctor to give you the Alzheimer's vaccine shot?

Wait, I said what? Lol I don’t study numbers on attendance.I just use my eye test. However, I have noticed on highlights around the league it looks like other stadiums are pretty empty as well right now.

Philip

 

[onomatopoeia]

We are a hop, skip, and a jump away from 2007 attendance. The home opener had a sellout. After that, I’m seeing a lot of empty seats on the weekend and so far this week, which I guess would be more expected for weekdays. The game I went to on Sunday was already showing signs of low attendance. I was behind the behind the plate and that whole section is generally filled up, but you could easily hear crickets in the fifth deck and quite a few crickets in the third deck. I think the official attendance number for Sunday was around 27,000. Guys this team better start doing something soon or else 8000 is around the corner.

Philip

... Philip/ Toronto Passions remarked that attendance was down....

Wait, I said what? Lol I don’t study numbers on attendance.I just use my eye test.

Philip

That all happened on the this and the previous page of this thread. Perhaps it's time to ask your doctor to give you the Alzheimer's vaccine shot?

 

[shack]

Shack wont understand that

Says the guy who thinks a cold morning on Apr 2, proves that there's no climate change. He looked like a fool and that was when he blocked me.