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Carney taking on Trump

silentkisser

Master of Disaster
Jun 10, 2008
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''Per the report, Trump’s height and weight are 75 inches and 224 pounds, respectively. Scans of several body systems—including the eyes, ears, neck, throat, and heart—came back normal.''


You would be in error...I'm sure you will correct your mistake.
Here’s the thing: regardless of his claimed height and weight, it isn’t accurate. He is much heavier than 224, and likely shorter than what he claimed. He lies like a rug. You know it, I know it. They also claim he is mental sharp. But, considering what’s coming out of his mouth 90% of the time, I have serious doubts.
 

JohnLarue

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Jan 19, 2005
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And in a recession that 2/3 economy you keep going about won't be that, will it. It's already starting in the tourism sector. Once the student loan, mortgage protections drop in July it will be less. Layoffs are rising, less, empty shelves, less. All affecting even more sectors nation wide. Service industry sectors will drop. It will snowball.

Into a real stock price correction. Consumer confidence drop, and the spiral will continue. The recession was always coming. But it's going to get a whole lot worse.

you should concern yourself with the impact of a recession , tariffs, lack of investment, east west division, unsustainable govt and consumer debt and poor productivity on Canada

Canada is highly dependant on trade
the US far less so
 

JohnLarue

Well-known member
Jan 19, 2005
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Here’s the thing: regardless of his claimed height and weight, it isn’t accurate. He is much heavier than 224, and likely shorter than what he claimed. He lies like a rug. You know it, I know it. They also claim he is mental sharp. But, considering what’s coming out of his mouth 90% of the time, I have serious doubts.

he has talked that way all his life
its annoying and very often ambiguous, but it has worked for him

but hey if you are real concerned , perhaps you can suggest Joe Biden might help Trump on and off the stage
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
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you should concern yourself with the impact of a recession , tariffs, lack of investment, east west division, unsustainable govt and consumer debt and poor productivity on Canada

Canada is highly dependant on trade
the US far less so
So I looked and you are being disingenuous with numbers. 55% of our GDP is internal consumption vs 67% in the USA. It's not a 1/3 vs 2/3 ratio. That or you can't read numbers.

In total about 19% of our GDP was trade to the USA, according to Scotiabank. With 3% of that oil alone, which they can't not trade for. We supply the Midwest and on top of that they use it to manufacture petroleum products for sale at about a 3x ratio. So it's way too profitable to shut off.

Of course its important. But guess what? It's just as important to them. Or their costs rise up. While Trump might not care, his donors will. That's why all the extra tariffs, minus the base 10% are paused pretty much.

So yes, we can stretch this out. The pressure will be on them. Sure if Trump calls with a reasonable deal we take it. Guess what? That's what will happen after the tax bill passes unless the USA domestic news gets really bad and he needs another win.

The manufacturers are not going to suddenly build all these factories. Why when they can't predict the rules? Just to get zoning, building permits, the actual land will take years. Then build it, gain the equipment (guess where that is made....CHINA perhaps?) And finally a trained workforce and materials supply chain? 10 years. Or wait out Trump for 3 and business as usual.

For a pro business dude you sure don't understand capital investment costs.
 

squeezer

Well-known member
Jan 8, 2010
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And in a recession that 2/3 economy you keep going about won't be that, will it. It's already starting in the tourism sector. Once the student loan, mortgage protections drop in July it will be less. Layoffs are rising, less, empty shelves, less. All affecting even more sectors nation wide. Service industry sectors will drop. It will snowball.

Into a real stock price correction. Consumer confidence drop, and the spiral will continue. The recession was always coming. But it's going to get a whole lot worse.
Butt can you please STOP!!! It is killing me to assign all these "LIKES" to you! Come on man, go back to the annoying version and agree with Johnny more so I can assign you " :ROFLMAO:" these instead and I can find peace. Thanks!!!
 
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Butler1000

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Butt can you please STOP!!! It is killing me to assign all these "LIKES" to you! Come on man, go back to the annoying version and agree with Johnny more so I can assign you " :ROFLMAO:" these instead and I can find peace. Thanks!!!
This is nothing, just wait until late July/Early August when the numbers are released for second quarter. I will rampage then as well.

Hopefully you will finally start to see my criticism of the Democratic Party leadership is also valid soon too. It was never about "support" for the GOP, just wanting them to do better.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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''Per the report, Trump’s height and weight are 75 inches and 224 pounds, respectively. Scans of several body systems—including the eyes, ears, neck, throat, and heart—came back normal.''


You would be in error...I'm sure you will correct your mistake.
Right wingers are such easy marks.
You believe those numbers?

meanwhile

 
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JohnLarue

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So I looked and you are being disingenuous with numbers. 55% of our GDP is internal consumption vs 67% in the USA. It's not a 1/3 vs 2/3 ratio. That or you can't read numbers.
wrong

AI Overview
Learn more

In 2023, trade, encompassing both exports and imports of goods and services, accounted for approximately 67% of Canada's GDP. This means that the total value of Canada's trade was equivalent to about two-thirds of its total economic output.

1746882329203.png

AI Overview
Learn more

In Canada, two-way trade in goods and services accounted for 67% of GDP in 2023, which is higher than the US's 24%. Canada's dependency on international trade is significantly higher than the US. This means a larger portion of Canada's economy is influenced by global trade compared to the US. For instance, in 2021, 13.3% of total household consumption in Canada was due to imports from the US, according to Statistics Canada.
your 55% internal consumption for Canada is just plain wrong

In total about 19% of our GDP was trade to the USA, according to Scotiabank. With 3% of that oil alone, which they can't not trade for. We supply the Midwest and on top of that they use it to manufacture petroleum products for sale at about a 3x ratio. So it's way too profitable to shut off.

Of course its important. But guess what? It's just as important to them. Or their costs rise up. While Trump might not care, his donors will. That's why all the extra tariffs, minus the base 10% are paused pretty much.

AI Overview
In 2024, about 75.9% of Canada's domestic exports were destined to the United States, on a customs basis. The US was also Canada's largest trading partner in 2022, accounting for close to two-thirds (63.4%) of Canada's total worldwide trade.
why can you not connect the dots ?
Canada 2/3 trade dependant, 75 % of our export trade is with the US
the us economy is 2/3 internal consumption and Canada accounted for roughly 17.3% of total U.S. goods exports. It also represented 12.6% of total U.S. imports.

the US has a huge competitive advantage over Canada and huge leverage over Canada with respect to trade
much of the us exports to Canada are value added, while a lot of Canadas exports to the US are commodities

but you think Canada can wait Trump out ?
Are going to stop using US tech, medical equipment pharmaceuticals
stop using goggle, amazon , Microsoft, proctor and gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Intel, AbbVie, General Mills products?
No you are not
you are delusional




So yes, we can stretch this out. The pressure will be on them. Sure if Trump calls with a reasonable deal we take it. Guess what? That's what will happen after the tax bill passes unless the USA domestic news gets really bad and he needs another win.
the unemployment rate in Windsor just jumped 10.7 per cent, layoffs are occurring in Oshawa

and
AI Overview
Learn more

Layoffs are occurring in the steel and aluminum industries in Canada and the US due to trade disruptions, particularly tariffs imposed by the US on Canadian steel and aluminum products. These tariffs have led to decreased demand and production for these industries, causing companies to reduce their workforce.
waiting has real world consequences for Canadians
these layoffs can become permanent

The manufacturers are not going to suddenly build all these factories. Why when they can't predict the rules? Just to get zoning, building permits, the actual land will take years. Then build it, gain the equipment (guess where that is made....CHINA perhaps?) And finally a trained workforce and materials supply chain? 10 years. Or wait out Trump for 3 and business as usual.
business can not wait three years, their creditors, shareholders wont let them
obviously you have never had P&L responsibility

you are completely delusional if you think this will be business as usual in 3 years
like him or not Trump is a transformational force and it is beyond naive and unbelievably irresponsible to pretend Canada can wait him out

For a pro business dude you sure don't understand capital investment costs.
you do not seem to understand the time value of money or have a clue about the amount of debt Canadas governments, consumers and businesses are burdened with.

you have managed your financial affairs conservatively , but you are the anomaly
1/2 of Canadian families are $200 away from insolvency
our unemployment rate is going to increase
loans get called and our overpriced housing market is going to get savagely corrected if we do not get this trade nightmare straighten out and soon
 
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Butler1000

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wrong




View attachment 437412



your 55% internal consumption for Canada is just plain wrong










the unemployment rate in Windsor just jumped 10.7 per cent, layoffs are occurring in Oshawa

and


waiting has real world consequences for Canadians
these layoffs can become permanent



business can not wait three years, their creditors, shareholders wont let them
obviously you have never had P&L responsibility

you are completely delusional if you think this will be business as usual in 3 years
like him or not Trump is a transformational force and it beyond naive and unbelievably irresponsible to pretend Canada can wait him out


you do not seem to understand the time value of money or have a clue about the amount of debt Canadas governments, consumers and businesses are burdened with.

you have managed your financial affairs conservatively , but you are the anomaly
Dude, you are just plain reading things wrong by asking the wrong questions and AI is feeding you the wrong answers.

Services are not Tariffed. That's your first mistake. Our domestic consumption is 55% of GDP. That's a hard number. And 19% of our GDP is trade with the USA. That's the other hard number. Of course it's alot. But as I keep saying, they have NO CHOICES with much of it. The need our oil, cheap electricity, wood, minerals, fertilizer, cheaper manufacturing costs, that are all logistically close. Outsourcing means increased transport costs and longer supply chain, as well as reliance on Chinese owned shipping. It's in their best interests on all levels to trade with us. We are in every logical way their best choice. Business knows that. American business owners will wait. The politicians know that too.

Trump is a disruption, not a transformation. His goal is the tax bill. And to be a narcissistic asshole. Beyond that he has no real ambition.
 
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mandrill

monkey
Aug 23, 2001
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Keep telling yourself that.

NATO wouldn't in a thousand years go against the United States. NATO requires the US to continued its own existence, just as much as Canada needs the US.
No. NATO's main enemy, Russia has a small fraction of Western Europe's population and resources. Poland alone could take Russia and kick its ass.
 

JohnLarue

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Jan 19, 2005
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Dude, you are just plain reading things wrong by asking the wrong questions and AI is feeding you the wrong answers.
you know better than AI ?

Services are not Tariffed. That's your first mistake. Our domestic consumption is 55% of GDP. That's a hard number. And 19% of our GDP is trade with the USA. That's the other hard number. Of course it's alot. But as I keep saying, they have NO CHOICES with much of it. The need our oil, cheap electricity, wood, minerals, fertilizer, cheaper manufacturing costs, that are all logistically close. Outsourcing means increased transport costs and longer supply chain, as well as reliance on Chinese owned shipping. It's in their best interests on all levels to trade with us. We are in every logical way their best choice. Business knows that. American business owners will wait. The politicians know that too.

Trump is a disruption, not a transformation. His goal is the tax bill. And to be a narcissistic asshole. Beyond that he has no real ambition.
again you are letting your emotions foul your judgement
yes he is a narcissistic asshole, but that is irrelevant to the economics of the matter

disruption/ transformation both produce change
there is no way we shall go back to status quo post trump, the next 3 1/2 years are going to see more change than the past 20
Canada will get savaged if we try to wait trump out
business will fail and lives will get destroyed
failed business do not just suddenly start again
Ontario is expectational exposed and Ontario has a massive provincial debt and huge consumer debt as well
Rob ford figures 500,000 jobs are at risk in Ontario
Even 1/2 , 1/4 , or 1/5, of that number would be a catastrophe


look
compare the us to Canada using the same source/ metric
Canada is far more exposed to trade than the US and our trade is far more concentrated with one customer (the US) , why you are trying to pretend this is not the case is bewildering.


the numbers do not lie
1746887067476.png

1746887146852.png

the other issue

Canada sells far more commodities as a share of its exports, commodities that can be sourced elsewhere
Canada is a price taker
the US sells far more value added products as a share of its exports, products that are far more difficult to substitute
the US is more of a price setter



it is not even close, they have a massive / leverage advantage over Canada and waiting trump out is a foolish / irresponsible strategy
 

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JohnLarue

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No. NATO's main enemy, Russia has a small fraction of Western Europe's population and resources. Poland alone could take Russia and kick its ass.
An Austrian with a funny little mustache made the same assumption about Russia
that did not work out well for him

and Russia had no nukes at that time
 
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Butler1000

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Oct 31, 2011
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you know better than AI ?



again you are letting your emotions foul your judgement
yes he is a narcissistic asshole, but that is irrelevant to the economics of the matter

disruption/ transformation both produce change
there is no way we shall go back to status quo post trump, the next 3 1/2 years are going to see more change than the past 20
Canada will get savaged if we try to wait trump out
business will fail and lives will get destroyed
failed business do not just suddenly start again
Ontario is expectational exposed and Ontario has a massive provincial debt and huge consumer debt as well
Rob ford figures 500,000 jobs are at risk in Ontario
Even 1/2 , 1/4 , or 1/5, of that number would be a catastrophe


look
compare the us to Canada using the same source/ metric
Canada is far more exposed to trade than the US and our trade is far more concentrated with one customer (the US) , why you are trying to pretend this is not the case is bewildering.


the numbers do not lie
View attachment 437466

View attachment 437467

the other issue

Canada sells far more commodities as a share of its exports, commodities that can be sourced elsewhere
Canada is a price taker
the US sells far more value added products as a share of its exports, products that are far more difficult to substitute
the US is more of a price setter



it is not even close, they have a massive / leverage advantage over Canada and waiting trump out is a foolish / irresponsible strategy
Lol. Stop panicking. Seriously.

But let's test this. What terms do do propose Canada put on the table to appease Trump? Put your money where your mouth is and show us what deal you would send to the WH to eliminate tariffs and normalize trade again.

No generic shit, no rehash of why's. Just list the terms you think will give both nations an acceptable win win situation.
 

JohnLarue

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Jan 19, 2005
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Lol. Stop panicking. Seriously.

But let's test this. What terms do do propose Canada put on the table to appease Trump? Put your money where your mouth is and show us what deal you would send to the WH to eliminate tariffs and normalize trade again.

No generic shit, no rehash of why's. Just list the terms you think will give both nations an acceptable win win situation.
stop pretending we can ignore the threat
it is very real


drop all the tariffs including the softwood lumber tariffs (permanently) aluminum, steel etc. , we drop supply management restrictions
all consumer products imports into Canada have their country of origin clearly labelled, hormone warnings if you insist
let the Canadian consumer decide if they want US milk , pork, chicken, beef etc.
let the auto industry / manufactures determine where in the US / Canada they want to build cars , and source, their aluminum, steel etc.
the US gets Keystone XL built
lets have real free trade between the US and Canada
Canadians can compete and win

we can not look a trade partner in the eye when 200% + tariffs after specific quantities are applied strictly to protect the market share of a special interest group and pretend we are free traders
and do not pretend those 200% + tariffs are anything but a market share restriction, if it was about product content or quality there would be no quantity specified
 
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Butler1000

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drop all the tariffs including the softwood lumber tariffs (permanently) aluminum, steel etc. , we drop supply management restrictions
all consumer products imports into Canada have their country of origin clearly labelled, hormone warnings if you insist
let the Canada consumer decide if they want US milk , pork, beef etc.
let the auto industry / manufactures determine where in the US / Canada they want to build cars , and source, their aluminum, steel etc.
lets have real free trade between the US and Canada
Canadians can compete and win

we can not look a trade partner in the eye when 200% + tariffs after specific quantities are applied strictly to protect the market share of a special interest group
and do not pretend those 200% + tariffs are anything but a market share restriction, if it was about product content or quality there would be no quantity specified
Well that won't happen. Cripes you still think that is the real reason for the tariffs don't you?

So sit back and watch. Because no deal is coming soon.
 

JohnLarue

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Well that won't happen.
why not ?
explain yourself

Cripes you still think that is the real reason for the tariffs don't you?
yes
200% + tariffs on dairy over a specified quantity is a market share restriction no if and or buts about it
if it was about product content or quality there would be no quantity specified

So sit back and watch. Because no deal is coming soon.
So sit back and watch Canada's economy implode then


Jean Chrétien stated the two most important responsibilities of a Prime Minister
1. Hold the country together
2. Maintain our economic relationship with the US

do you honestly think he believed stilting back doing nothing and waiting is properly managing his number two responsibility ?

your wait him out strategy is unbelievably foolish and irresponsible
 
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Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
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why not ?
explain yourself


yes
200% + tariffs on dairy over a specified quantity is a market share restriction no if and or buts about it
if it was about product content or quality there would be no quantity specified


So sit back and watch Canada's economy implode then
Supply chain management is not going to end. Trump tried in 2018 and failed. Others have tried and failed dating back to the original Canada/USA free trade agreements and NAFTA. It is a core non negotiable. For National Security reasons. That is why. It will not happen.

And btw the British agreement you touted as free trade includes a provision that only so many British cars can be sold in the USA before a 25% tariff kicks in. To help protect American manufacturers. With an exact quantity of 100,000 cars as the base line.

Sound familiar? It's common practice. So your idea is moot.

USMCA will be the template, with adjustments made that won't affect our farmers. Honestly I would much rather see Irish butter allowed. It's so fucking good. Or the dairy farmers widen their far content restrictions for baking butter.

And the whole thing will be wound up by 2026 when the USMCA agreements are up for review and ratification anyway.

Meanwhile tariff lawsuits are winding their way through the USA court system. The vast majority of trade continues, with a 10% tax that US citizens have to pay. And Canadians are pretty much boycotting USA made products anyway so little cost to consumers here. It's actually going to boost Canadian domestic production in the long run imo. And we still get Chinese made shit at the same price.

We may end up seeing USA shopping tourism on some things.

Will some sectors take a hit? Of course. But I think the USA domestic economy will take a far larger one, because the USA chose to take on EVERYONE. And it's coming in the next two month, three on the outside.

You ain't seeing the Macro here.
 
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Frankfooter

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stop pretending we can ignore the threat
it is very real


drop all the tariffs including the softwood lumber tariffs (permanently) aluminum, steel etc. , we drop supply management restrictions
all consumer products imports into Canada have their country of origin clearly labelled, hormone warnings if you insist
let the Canadian consumer decide if they want US milk , pork, chicken, beef etc.
let the auto industry / manufactures determine where in the US / Canada they want to build cars , and source, their aluminum, steel etc.
the US gets Keystone XL built
lets have real free trade between the US and Canada
Canadians can compete and win

we can not look a trade partner in the eye when 200% + tariffs after specific quantities are applied strictly to protect the market share of a special interest group and pretend we are free traders
and do not pretend those 200% + tariffs are anything but a market share restriction, if it was about product content or quality there would be no quantity specified
So the US puts tariffs on Canadian products and you think we should respond by dropping all Canadian tariffs?
 
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JohnLarue

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Jan 19, 2005
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Supply chain management is not going to end. Trump tried in 2018 and failed. Others have tried and failed dating back to the original Canada/USA free trade agreements and NAFTA. It is a core non negotiable. For National Security reasons. That is why. It will not happen.
you were just shown that 200%+ tariffs have nothing to with quality or product safety , or there would be no quantity specified at all
it is strictly market share protectionism
For National Security reasons is pure bullshit disingenuous cop out that will not fly

And btw the British agreement you touted as free trade includes a provision that only so many British cars can be sold in the USA before a 25% tariff kicks in. To help protect American manufacturers. With an exact quantity of 100,000 cars as the base line.

Sound familiar? It's common practice. So your idea is moot.
there are no rules stating one trade deal with one country is the basis for another
the simple response from the US is " we are comfortable that many import cars and the British beat you to the table
they provided this concession to obtain that allocation, what are you willing to concede on ? "

you asked what i would propose
we want to get rid of all tariffs on softwood lumber , aluminum and steel
no quantity games
look the orange haired egomaniac in the eye and ask him if he wants free trade or not,



USMCA will be the template, with adjustments made that won't affect our farmers.
the us will not agree to the status quo and that is what you are proposing/ dreaming about
Are you not paying attention ?
they will want a win on either the auto sector or supply management (or both) and likely insist on Ottawa removing the taxes on US social media companies
you are completely unrealistic to pretend we will not have to concede on anything
since we will need to concede, tie it to eliminating a trade irritant we have (softwood lumber) and preserving our share of the auto sector

Honestly I would much rather see Irish butter allowed. It's so fucking good. Or the dairy farmers widen their far content restrictions for baking butter.
you personal preferences / wants is not at all relevant
Irish butter wont help laid off auto workers
Are you not paying attention ?

And the whole thing will be wound up by 2026 when the USMCA agreements are up for review and ratification anyway.
we need to move a whole lot quicker than that
there are still 25% tariffs on Canadian Steel and aluminum
Are you not paying attention ?

Meanwhile tariff lawsuits are winding their way through the USA court system.
?????
lawsuits are working there way through us courts all the time
no doubt there is some international trade lawsuit from a decade ago still bouncing around the US courts
pretending the us court system is going to save Canada is absurd

The vast majority of trade continues, with a 10% tax that US citizens have to pay. And Canadians are pretty much boycotting USA made products anyway so little cost to consumers here. It's actually going to boost Canadian domestic production in the long run imo. And we still get Chinese made shit at the same price.
what part of this do you not understand ?
1746897475686.png
1746897495078.png

any pain the US consumer is going to feel will be miniscule compared to the pain Canadians are going to face

We may end up seeing USA shopping tourism on some things.

Will some sectors take a hit? Of course. But I think the USA domestic economy will take a far larger one, because the USA chose to take on EVERYONE. And it's coming in the next two month, three on the outside.

You ain't seeing the Macro here.
yet you ignore the macro above
the us economy is far less dependant on trade than its trading partners


you are not paying attention
trump will tweak tariff rates to get the specific imports he wants , while leaving the softwood lumber , aluminum and steel tariffs on Canada intact
especially if Canada pulls the stall tactic on him
Chrystia Freeland did that in USMCA and he was furious,
he will go around us and sell our market share of the us import market to those willing to deal

you are living in a fantasyland permitting your emotions to cloud your judgement
 
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