Can layton win?

[fuji]

The ndp are now only 5 points behind the conservatives and closing fast, if the most recent polls are to be believed. Can the ndp take more seats than the conservatives?

Would have been a ridiculous question only a few weeks ago, but those are the latest numbers.

 

[Possum Trot]

In the famoue words of cartoonist Aislin " Everyone take a Valium"

 

[Brill]

If a tipping point has been reached, anything can happen. Votes don't translate directly to seats.
Who would have predicted the Tories getting only 2 in 1993?

 

[Carling]

i'm voting for Jack...we need to see if this country can improve under NEW leadership, and not the same ol ' blue and red complacency...

 

[onthebottom]

How entertaining would that be.....

OTB

 

[Victor Lazlo]

For the good of Canada and your children you had better hope not.

 

[fuji]

My guess is what's happening is that people really want an alternative to Harper, still remember sponsorship and also want an alternative to the Liberals, and along comes Layton as the only leader appears trustworthy.

An NDP majority would be a horrendous nightmare. Arguably an NDP minority government is no worse than a Conservative minority government, in that the other parties can keep it in check from doing the sorts of ludicrous damage that either of those extremes would do if they could do.

If the NDP obviously pulls ahead of the Liberals (and it seems to have) then the strategic voting gets interesting--people who would have ordinarily voted Liberal may vote NDP in order to block another Conservative government. That would have been a ridiculous thought a few weeks ago, but logically right now if you wanted to vote strategically against the C's that's what you would do.

What makes it viable that Layton could actually win and form a government is the possibility that the NDP could sweep Quebec, and appears to be the only Federal party capable of doing that.

 

[exbrower]

So the question is would you vote strategically? As a liberal supporter (small L deliberate) I would in a minute if ithought the NDP candidate in my riding had a better chance of beating the conservative. As it is I am in what I hope is a safe Liberal riding so this is not an issue but if I was in an NDP riding or a Conservative riding I would vote NDP to defeat the Conservative.

 

[anon1]

For the good of Canada and your children you had better hope not.

For the good of Canada and your children you had better hope so.

 

[nottyboi]

I would have NO PROBLEM with giving Jack Layton a shot as a PM with a minority. But what is more likely to happen is the vote for the left will be split and we will have a Harpo majority...:>(

 

[someone]

Right now I bet Iggy would love to remind voters of the NDP government in Ontario but that would be hard to do with Bob Rae now a top liberal.

 

[fuji]

Right now I bet Iggy would love to remind voters of the NDP government in Ontario but that would be hard to do with Bob Rae now a top liberal.

Again... I predict that Bob Rae will, post election, spearhead the unification of the NDP and the Liberal party. He can credibly lead a united "Liberal Democrat" party.

Unless of course Layton wins and becomes PM, in which case the LD unification will be put off until the future.

 

[Brill]

Right now I bet Iggy would love to remind voters of the NDP government in Ontario but that would be hard to do with Bob Rae now a top liberal.

Layton could remind Iggy that Gary Doer has a solid reputation and one of the best fiscal track records as Premier of Manitoba. Ten continuous years of balanced budgets!

 

[blackrock13]

Layton could remind Iggy that Gary Doer has a solid reputation and one of the best fiscal track records as Premier of Manitoba. Ten continuous years of balanced budgets!

Doer is a fine example, but at this point he wants to stay local and low profile. Gee 10 years. Didn't someone whine that NDP governments would spend us into the poorhouse or some such thing; apparently not.

 

[wigglee]

the liberals are lost and confused, the cons are anti-democratic assholes, ...so i guess that leaves jack to carry the ball ........fasten your seatbelts.

 

[fmahovalich]

It is easy to run a balanced budget and surpluses even....When you tax the hell out of people!!!

A vote for Jack may get a balanced budget.....at the cost of INCREASED taxes!!!

And I'm not talking a mere GST raise.....It will be across the board taxes!!!

 

[blackrock13]

It is easy to run a balanced budget and surpluses even....When you tax the hell out of people!!!

A vote for Jack may get a balanced budget.....at the cost of INCREASED taxes!!!

And I'm not talking a mere GST raise.....It will be across the board taxes!!!

How much of a tax increase did Mulroney hit the citizens of Canada with the promise of balancing the budget as a result? How did he do? Answer ~45% and he failed.

You're such a lightweight trying to punch above your class. It's raining why do you go out and canvas your riding. I'm sure they'd love to hear your drivel.

 

[LickingGravity]

The NDP would be a disaster but it might be ok if they self destruct while in power for a short period a la Rae's provincial government. They barely have enough people that can read and write to form a shadow cabinet much less a real one.

The only thing for certain is that this will be Iggy's last campaign as leader. When you do worse than Stephane (call me Celine) Dion your longevity is marked in weeks. Perhaps a Tobin or a Manley can save this beleagured brand.

This whole scenerio is not dissimilar to what happened to the British Liberal Party after WW1.

Amusing to see the Liberal attack ads focused squarely on Layton now.

 

[great bear]

Jack seems like a very reasonable person. Its the fruit cakes in his party that worry me.

 

[blackrock13]

Jack seems like a very reasonable person. Its the fruit cakes in his party that worry me.

There are alway a few fruits and nuts in a good cake.