Canadian Junior hockey in trouble due to NCAA NIL deals?

[bazokajoe]

Why Gavin McKenna’s decision to join the NCAA could mark the end of major junior hockey in Canada as we know it

Top NHL prospect and presumptive 2026 No. 1 draft pick Gavin McKenna is reportedly leaving the CHL for the NCAA in an unprecedented move.

ca.news.yahoo.com

How long before more top prospects leave for the NCAA?
This 17 year old will recieve $700,000 for 1 year from Penn State NIL deal.
He is also the presumptive 2026 No.1 draft pick.
I have no idea how popular NCAA hockey is or what kind of money these teams bring in at the gate, but might be a good way to go if you got talent.
I don't think it's the start of the death of the CHL though.

 

[maurice93]

CHL players now being NCAA eligible will have big impacts.

Overall the CHL will get stronger overall at the 16 and 17 (generally) year age group. Mckenna is more of a exception as he is an older 17 year old nandis NCAA eligible academically. They are going to get more Americans at the age of 16/17, and also some Canadian kids who would have stayed away from th CHL in the past as they were interested in keeping their NCAA eligbility..

That being said 18 and 19 year old Canadian kids are going to leave the CHL in large numbers for the NCAA. And some 17 year olds that are NCAA eligible. And that will hurt the CHL significantly.

Remember when people complained that NCAA players did not get paid.
Maybe its time for the CHL to look at itself. Franchises have values of north of $50 million. And they don't even give the choice of where a player plays because of the draft. Perhaps its time to pay its players a bit more.

 

[mellowjello]

Why Gavin McKenna’s decision to join the NCAA could mark the end of major junior hockey in Canada as we know it

Top NHL prospect and presumptive 2026 No. 1 draft pick Gavin McKenna is reportedly leaving the CHL for the NCAA in an unprecedented move.

ca.news.yahoo.com

How long before more top prospects leave for the NCAA?
This 17 year old will recieve $700,000 for 1 year from Penn State NIL deal.
He is also the presumptive 2026 No.1 draft pick.
I have no idea how popular NCAA hockey is or what kind of money these teams bring in at the gate, but might be a good way to go if you got talent.
I don't think it's the start of the death of the CHL though.

I know players get comped in different ways at the college level, I didn't think you were allowed to pay them outright.

 

[The Oracle]

CHL players now being NCAA eligible will have big impacts.

Overall the CHL will get stronger overall at the 16 and 17 (generally) year age group. Mckenna is more of a exception as he is an older 17 year old nandis NCAA eligible academically. They are going to get more Americans at the age of 16/17, and also some Canadian kids who would have stayed away from th CHL in the past as they were interested in keeping their NCAA eligbility..

That being said 18 and 19 year old Canadian kids are going to leave the CHL in large numbers for the NCAA. And some 17 year olds that are NCAA eligible. And that will hurt the CHL significantly.

Remember when people complained that NCAA players did not get paid.
Maybe its time for the CHL to look at itself. Franchises have values of north of $50 million. And they don't even give the choice of where a player plays because of the draft. Perhaps its time to pay its players a bit more.

Speaking of the CHL..Why are the London Knights consistently good? What do the Hunter bros have cooking there?

 

[Birf]

McKenna is the cream of the crop and he's only getting 700k. Most chl players wouldn't get anything because ncaa hockey is small potatoes in the usa. Mckenna has had 3 chl years and it's time to move on, nothing more to prove.

The very elite players might make the move but that's about it. Landon Dupont is the next generational talent, see if he does it.

I heard the hunter brothers were offered 100 mil a few years ago and turned it down. This new rule won't affect the chl in my opinion, most chl players don't make the NHL so they wouldn't be a draw in the ncaa or worth any money to schools. Plus all chl teams pay for players university in Canada if the want go to school after their chl days are done.

 

[Birf]

CHL players now being NCAA eligible will have big impacts.

Overall the CHL will get stronger overall at the 16 and 17 (generally) year age group. Mckenna is more of a exception as he is an older 17 year old nandis NCAA eligible academically. They are going to get more Americans at the age of 16/17, and also some Canadian kids who would have stayed away from th CHL in the past as they were interested in keeping their NCAA eligbility..

That being said 18 and 19 year old Canadian kids are going to leave the CHL in large numbers for the NCAA. And some 17 year olds that are NCAA eligible. And that will hurt the CHL significantly.

Remember when people complained that NCAA players did not get paid.
Maybe its time for the CHL to look at itself. Franchises have values of north of $50 million. And they don't even give the choice of where a player plays because of the draft. Perhaps its time to pay its players a bit more.

This simply won't happen, the 18 and 19 year olds won't be wanted by the ncaa teams, there's too many good American players now. Plus the players would have to be academically eligible. You have to be good enough for ncaa teams to want you and give you a scholarship over an equally talented American.

 

[maurice93]

This simply won't happen, the 18 and 19 year olds won't be wanted by the ncaa teams, there's too many good American players now. Plus the players would have to be academically eligible. You have to be good enough for ncaa teams to want you and give you a scholarship over an equally talented American.

You are incorrect on some of your points.

#1. Over 150 players that played in the CHL last year have committed to NCAA teams.
Last year they were mainly in one of two categories;
- 2004 Date of Birth's that were in their final year of eligibility in the CHL and were contractually allowed to commit to NCAA teams. They chose the NCAA over CIS
- 16, 17 year olds (from the US or Canada) or kids from the BCHL who skipped over to the CHL. These kids are going to NCAA at 17/18/19, so obviously CHL players at that age or good enough for the NCAA and are wanted.

Kids born in 2005 or later who started the year in the CHL/OHL, were not allowed to commit to the NCAA until after the year was done - many have now done so as you can see in the link in #2. In fact 2 first rounds picks in this past draft have already made the jumo.

The CHL Commitment count is Growing - The Hockey Focus


RinkNet College Commitments List

 

[maurice93]

Plus all chl teams pay for players university in Canada if the want go to school after their chl days are done.

The CHL bursary package is nowhere near as good as an NCAA scholarship. That being said I do want to compliment the CHL for coming up with that package some years back. It does encourage kids to take their academics more seriously. Ironically it is now biting them in the ass as a larger % of kids are prepared for the jump to the NCAA.

#1. The CHL offers you an annual academic bursary which covers a good portion of your costs but not all your costs. It is not a full ride like the NCAA, nor does it cover all your meals and housing like the NCAA.
#2. The CHL will only pay one year of university for each year you play in their league. If you only played 3 years in the CHL, you are on your own for your 4th year of university,

#3. If kids want their 4 years of schooling paid after the CHL, they have to play a full 4 years in the CHL. At the age of 19 and 20 you are required to play junior hockey instead of going to university, and you are only starting university at the age of 20/21. If you go the NCAA route you can start going to university at the age of 18, and then at the age of 22 you can decide if you want to pursue professional hockey with a degree in hand. Being at that point at 21/22 instead of 23/24 is a big deal for those that are academically inclined.

 

[maurice93]

This simply won't happen, the 18 and 19 year olds won't be wanted by the ncaa teams, there's too many good American players now. Plus the players would have to be academically eligible. You have to be good enough for ncaa teams to want you and give you a scholarship over an equally talented American.

I Any Canadian kid that was recently drafted in the 2025 NHL draft (even in the 7th round) and is academically eligible would have multiple NCAA teams line up to give them a scholarship to play during the 2025/2026 season. Just look at the 16/17 year olds kids that are in the BCHL, or those that moved to the OHL/WHL last year, that have already earned NCAA commitments . , many have no realistic shot to even get drafted and they start in the NCAA at 18 or 19.

The spots that will be offered by NCAA are nowhere near as limited as you make it out to be. There are 60 teams and lots of spots. Getting significant NIL like McKenna now that is certainly a different story.

 

[onomatopoeia]

A lot of hockey players don't have the academics to get into the NCAA. I'm not saying they're slow, it's more the combination of where they're from originally, (ie: many from small towns with few recreation options), and because long bus rides to mid-week away games means less time to devote to school work. NCAA schools will find a way to accommodate top prospects, but there's not that many of them in any given year. There are going to be many fewer hockey scholarships because the sport generates little TV revenue.

 

[maurice93]

A lot of hockey players don't have the academics to get into the NCAA. I'm not saying they're slow, it's more the combination of where they're from originally, (ie: many from small towns with few recreation options), and because long bus rides to mid-week away games means less time to devote to school work. NCAA schools will find a way to accommodate top prospects, but there's not that many of them in any given year. There are going to be many fewer hockey scholarships because the sport generates little TV revenue.

#1) Regading your theory that the NCAA will only accommodate top prospects from the OHL. The NCAA has already accommodated over 150 players that played in the CHL last year with scholarship commitments for 2025/2026 and for later years. . So its not only for the top prospects.

#2) Your theory that there are limited scholarships is largely incorrect. There are 60 Division 1 teams, and they are allowed to offer up to 26 full scholarships. They can be full or partial, but for the majority of D1 schools they offer full rides to most of their team.

#3) Your theory that most CHL kids are academically ineligible is out of date.

At one time it was more correct.. It started to really change about 20 years ago, when the CHL in response to the NCAA threat changed its views on academics in order to retain players. The CHL/OHL did start to take academics more seriously, punished teams that slacked on it, and provided incentives with their bursary program. Now the majority of kids who spend 4 years in the CHL do move on to post-secondary institutions if they are not legit prospects.

Ironically the CHL taking academics more seriously is biting them in the ass right now in the battle against the NCAA from 2 fronts - more kids are educated so they can get into the NCAA at an earlier age. In the CHL, they can't start university until they have put 4 years in the league (in most cases).

 

[maurice93]

Each OHL team is allowed to carry 3 overage players. Last year these were kids born in 2004. I picked the first 6 teams in the OHL by alphabetical order and tracked their over-agres.

Those 6 teams had 14 overage players from my count and none of them are elite prospects. There were three that had been drafted before, nowhere higher than 4th round.
- 10 of those 14 players are moving on the NCAA. And 3 of the 4 who are not going to the NCAA are an American, a Czech, and a Canadian 4th round pick who signed an NHL contract. There seems to be only 1 Canadian kid out of the 11 (Ryan Mcguire) who did not choose to or could not get into the NCAA. So 10 of 11 Canadians were able to get in. These players are not exactly superstars as they had decent, but not great stats in the OHL.

This essentially invalidates:
- that most kids in the CHL are not qualified academically
- that NCAA spots are only being held for the most gifted players.

They will get hit at the gifted level and the more modest level.

 

[maurice93]

There are already 2 players who were drafted in the 2025 First Round that jumped to the NCAA - Cole Reschny (#14) and Jackson Smith (#18)

Will it cripple the CHL? No. But it will hurt and they need to adapt.

 

[onomatopoeia]

#1) Regarding your theory...

I cede to your superior knowledge on this subject.

 

[boobtoucher]

I've been saying this for years. Hockey Canada/OHL's development model is broken and out of date. Hockey development in Canada is dead.

The NHL, like the NFL and NBA before it, is finally transitioning into a tallent-focused league. The OHL is still set up on the smash-mouth, win-now model, rather than player development.

Why would you go get your head kicked in in the O when you can stay development focused in the NCAA.

You'll get high-school aged kids signing in the O, then transferring after 2 years once they're college-aged.

 

[Fun For All]

I've been saying this for years. Hockey Canada/OHL's development model is broken and out of date. Hockey development in Canada is dead.

The NHL, like the NFL and NBA before it, is finally transitioning into a tallent-focused league. The OHL is still set up on the smash-mouth, win-now model, rather than player development.

Why would you go get your head kicked in in the O when you can stay development focused in the NCAA.

You'll get high-school aged kids signing in the O, then transferring after 2 years once they're college-aged.

I'm not gonna disagree with some of your criticisms of Canadian hockey, but major junior hockey in Canada still has a professional environment that provides players an excellent path to play NHL hockey or any professional hockey for that matter... they play a larger schedule, many former NHL players are their coaches, still lead the world in NHL draft choices...it's more pro hockey style focused.

You may see some of the older players go to the NCAA after their junior careers are done because they'd rather do that than go play in Europe or play in the ECHL or CIS but many of the top guys the top NHL draft picks will go right from junior hockey to the NHL training camps... There's always exception thou.

The whole thing is good for the players who now have a choice.

 

[Fun For All]

A lot of hockey players don't have the academics to get into the NCAA. I'm not saying they're slow, it's more the combination of where they're from originally, (ie: many from small towns with few recreation options), and because long bus rides to mid-week away games means less time to devote to school work. NCAA schools will find a way to accommodate top prospects, but there's not that many of them in any given year. There are going to be many fewer hockey scholarships because the sport generates little TV revenue.

100% wrong ^^^

 

[Fun For All]

This simply won't happen, the 18 and 19 year olds won't be wanted by the ncaa teams, there's too many good American players now. Plus the players would have to be academically eligible. You have to be good enough for ncaa teams to want you and give you a scholarship over an equally talented American.

Actually, the older kids are the most sought after by NCAA schools.

 

[Fun For All]

Why Gavin McKenna’s decision to join the NCAA could mark the end of major junior hockey in Canada as we know it

Top NHL prospect and presumptive 2026 No. 1 draft pick Gavin McKenna is reportedly leaving the CHL for the NCAA in an unprecedented move.

ca.news.yahoo.com

How long before more top prospects leave for the NCAA?
This 17 year old will recieve $700,000 for 1 year from Penn State NIL deal.
He is also the presumptive 2026 No.1 draft pick.
I have no idea how popular NCAA hockey is or what kind of money these teams bring in at the gate, but might be a good way to go if you got talent.
I don't think it's the start of the death of the CHL though.

A couple of benefits of NCAA over OHL is a shorter schedule and you don't get traded...it's still heavily scouted and have top notch facilities for training.

 

[Fun For All]

Why Gavin McKenna’s decision to join the NCAA could mark the end of major junior hockey in Canada as we know it

Top NHL prospect and presumptive 2026 No. 1 draft pick Gavin McKenna is reportedly leaving the CHL for the NCAA in an unprecedented move.

ca.news.yahoo.com

How long before more top prospects leave for the NCAA?
This 17 year old will recieve $700,000 for 1 year from Penn State NIL deal.
He is also the presumptive 2026 No.1 draft pick.
I have no idea how popular NCAA hockey is or what kind of money these teams bring in at the gate, but might be a good way to go if you got talent.
I don't think it's the start of the death of the CHL though.

That's fine for McKenna but I'm not sure how Penn State gets their money back from one year of service.