Except it was a damn good shot. To good for an amateur imo.
Not a "damn good shot" if he was going for a head shot. The bullet struck about 6 inches
low of the temple where you'd target for a max-visual effect head shot.
Bullet
drop is the easiest ballistic trajectory axis to calculate and dial in for. This appears to be less than a 150 yard shot. With just about any center-fire rifle cartridge, the bullet drop trajectory is essential FLAT for that distance. And IF this was a 'professional hit', then the location and distance would be known and the distance calculated and the scope sighted in for that distance.
Any woodchuck hunting kid can hit a gopher 4 times out of 5 with a .22 rimfire at that distance. Any deer hunter with an old lever action 30-30 can hit a deer in the heart, through the underbrush, at that distance. Even with iron sights, no scope. Average rifle target shooters can shoot three shot groups within the diameter of a walnut at 150 yards. Some college kid with his grandpa's 30-06 or .308 bolt action hunting rifle could go out in the desert for a couple afternoons of practice and easily make that shot.
Having said that. An average guy trying to kill a man at 150 yards with a center fire rifle should go for a centre-mass torso shot. It will almost certainly cause a mortal wound. Even wearing a (soft) bulletproof vest.
But anyone lone wolf doing this out of personal malice, mental illness or political glory... likely wants a dramatic splatter head shot. Just like American movies and video games celebrate as good clean fun entertainment!
I would suspect that a professional, state-actor level assassin would also not walk along the roofline and make himself visible. And he'd likely either leave the rifle behind, or ditch it asap so he could sneak away. Not carry a long gun through the campus and
then drop it in the woods. (As reported by the WSJ?). That rifle drop location would also narrow the direction of the search for video clues etc as to where the shooter was going.
I also have an instinct to question the idea that the cartridges were engraved with trans or other political messages. First, the bullet would likely fragment upon impact destroying any engraving. Second, you'd want to have your own engraving machine as a reasonable person isn't going to go down to the Mall kiosk to get bullets or brass cases engraved with hate speech. Or he could just scratch it in with a nail?
And if the gunman wanted to make a statement with engraving on the unspent rounds, he'd have left the rifle at the scene to be easily discovered.
I'm just musing aloud here... we don't know fuck all at this point. But just saying that unless the carotid artery was the desired impact point, it was not a great shot, even by gopher huntiing standards. When I was into guns 1,000 yard shots with a 22-250 bolt action rifle hitting a 6" round steel plate were the norm once you got sighted in.
