Toronto Passions

CIBC is taking an ENRON type hit...

21pro

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Oct 22, 2003
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are you ok? i remember alot of terbites saying they hold banking stocks... what are your strategies? holding, buying more, heading for cover, tax loss selling?

i warned against the banks, but it was just my opinion.
 

Rockslinger

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Apr 24, 2005
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Back in July my broker said to sell RIM shares (way overpriced he said) and buy "stable" dividend paying bank shares. No, I'm not ok. My strategy is to hide out in the VIP to avoid margin calls from my broker. But, we will get through this financial mess like we always do by the central banks printing more money. The alternative is people rioting in the street.
 

Esco!

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Nov 10, 2004
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http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/287096

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's slashed its rating on ACA Financial
Guaranty Corp. from a solid A to CCC – junk status – and CIBC confirmed that
ACA is the counterparty in hedging of US$3.5 billion worth of the Toronto-headquartered
bank's American subprime real estate exposure.

"It is not known whether ACA will continue as a viable counterparty to CIBC," the bank stated.
 

m91us

Member
Oct 28, 2001
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Next to the money pit.
21pro said:
are you ok? i remember alot of terbites saying they hold banking stocks... what are your strategies? holding, buying more, heading for cover, tax loss selling?

i warned against the banks, but it was just my opinion.
My buddy cash out of CIBC when it was about $100. He invested in some other speculative stock. Well, the overall effect was the same because this other company he invested with the proceeds of the CIBC sale has TANKED. Haha...At least I get to rub it in his face that I'm still collecting the quarterly dividends from CIBC.

At these prices the possible options are as noted.

1)Shares drop so low that CIBC becomes a target for a takeover.
2)CIBC will have to issue more shares to cover cash need to pay staff and suppliers.
3)CIBC declares bankrupcy. If you believe this is very likely, then load up on Leap Put options.

My actions, the last couple of months I have been sending a cheque to purchase more shares with my Shareholder Purchasing Plan. That's my 2 cents.
 

FOOTSNIFFER

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Jan 23, 2004
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Dr. Know said:
I just bought CIBC at $78.65 a couple of weeks ago. Am I worried? No. Will I buy any more Canadian Bank stocks in the near furure? No. In 5 years from now will I have made money? Very likely. My sense is that by this time next year the stock will be trading mid 90's.
You really are Dr. Know....as in, you know what you're doing. I'm buying CM and UBS by the bucketfull....
 

S.C. Joe

Client # 13
Nov 2, 2007
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Liber Pater said:
Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful
Thats good but how about..."don't try to catch a falling knife"
 

Liber Pater

New member
Feb 27, 2007
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Doing your homework is always implied.

I've held CIBC in the past, but when the August Subprime issue hit the headlines, I dropped CIBC - I had other bank stocks, and I know CIBC always pushes the envelope. No proof for dumping, just constant negative headlines and press.

Dropped it in high 90's - won't touch it till they reveal their total exposure. Eg. Morgan Stanley says their exposure was $3 Billion, then upped it to $9 Billion today (or maybe it was $7 Billion) - either way being off 100-200% doesn't give me a lot of comfort that management knows what it is doing....
 

Liber Pater

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Feb 27, 2007
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I would agree with you Nip - they don't even know what their exposure is.

I think it will take a big hit when they do announce their total exposure. Their recent sale of Oppenheimer in the US and other assets suggest they are trying to bolster their balance sheet in anticipation of the true number coming out.

I wouldn't be surprised if it fell under $60, IMHO.
 

FOOTSNIFFER

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Jan 23, 2004
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That's the past. The stock market's forward looking, and their retail business mints money. Now that the CEO McCaughey has gotten out of the capital markets, it's reverted to being a boring retail franchise with little downside. It's not the best managed of our banks, but in canada even if yoiu suck at being a banker, if you belong to the chartered bank club, you've got it made. The key with these situations is to not commit all your funds in one purchase....buy in small amounts, in case your timing's off.
 

WinterHawk

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Jan 18, 2004
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FOOTSNIFFER said:
That's the past. The stock market's forward looking, and their retail business mints money. Now that the CEO McCaughey has gotten out of the capital markets, it's reverted to being a boring retail franchise with little downside. It's not the best managed of our banks, but in canada even if yoiu suck at being a banker, if you belong to the chartered bank club, you've got it made. The key with these situations is to not commit all your funds in one purchase....buy in small amounts, in case your timing's off.
It WAS a well managed bank when BANKERS were calling the shots. They made a ton of money, bought WoodGundy, times were good. Then because the Gundy boys had a few good years when the Retail side of the business had an off year, the Gundy boys looked like "Golden Boys" who could do no wrong in the 90's market and they were given the keys to the Chairmanship. CIBC affectively changed hands from Bankers who believed in stewardship and grew that bank to be number 2 behind RBC, to the F'n Stock Room scam artists who look out just for their bottom line, and it was those idiots who have caused all the mess. Global Crossings, Enron, etc...

Always looking for a fast buck and how to line their own pockets.

Well lets hope that the BANKERS get back into control and put those snake oil salesmen to the curb!!!
 
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AndrewV1

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May 23, 2006
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Looking at a long term chart, $60 is the next support level for CM.
 

minnie_me

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Nov 21, 2001
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If you're goal is long term, then CIBC is a real buying opportunity.
 

Rockslinger

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Apr 24, 2005
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FOOTSNIFFER said:
and their retail business mints money.
CIBC should keep the retail business, cards and wealth management (aka mutual funds) and dump all their other crap. It is the capital market crap that makes them look like a walking disaster every 3-5 years.
 

Rockslinger

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Apr 24, 2005
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S.C. Joe said:
Thats good but how about..."don't try to catch a falling knife"
Remember that the genesis of many great fortunes start in disaster scenarios ("falling knieves"). I bought RIM at $3 when they were getting killed in court and when tech stocks were suffering from the "Nortel disease". The RIM shares closed at $117 last Friday and its market cap is higher than mighty RBC. (Shoot, this sounds like I'm bragging.)
 

FOOTSNIFFER

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Jan 23, 2004
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Rockslinger said:
CIBC should keep the retail business, cards and wealth management (aka mutual funds) and dump all their other crap. It is the capital market crap that makes them look like a walking disaster every 3-5 years.
I guess you didn't get the memo: they already have gotten rid of their capital markets group in New York. It's gone.
Their growth prospects aren't good in an overbanked, small market such as canada, but that doesn't mean that they warrant their current discount to the other banks. They're closer to the bottom than the top. But don't commit all your funds at once...
 

big dogie

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Jun 15, 2003
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FOOTSNIFFER said:
I guess you didn't get the memo: they already have gotten rid of their capital markets group in New York. It's gone.
Their growth prospects aren't good in an overbanked, small market such as canada, but that doesn't mean that they warrant their current discount to the other banks. They're closer to the bottom than the top. But don't commit all your funds at once...
Bottom line CIBC as a bank is very profitable... paying 8% dividend the stock price is down, but will go back up for more value......pretty much guaranteed, if it dosn't we will have bigger problems.....

b d
 

Rockslinger

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Apr 24, 2005
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FOOTSNIFFER said:
they already have gotten rid of their capital markets group in New York. It's gone.
Closing the barn door after the horses have fled. The Irish call this a "lesson too late for the learning." The banks in Canada are an oligopoly and they don't need much growth prospect to generate annuity/utility type earnings from their retail operations. CIBC could easily generate 20% ROE if they simply stop focking around.
 
Ashley Madison
Toronto Escorts