Coronavirus In LA Might Be More Widespread And Less Deadly Than We Thought
- Thread starter Smallcock
- Start date
Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than r
Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than reported cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/cor...p-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html
Uh-oh... so it's not as deadly as we thought...
Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than reported cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/cor...p-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html
Uh-oh... so it's not as deadly as we thought...
There's already a thread on underreporting in L.A.
https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...re-Widespread-And-Less-Deadly-Than-We-Thought
https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...re-Widespread-And-Less-Deadly-Than-We-Thought
Also my thread. Title wasn't very good.There's already a thread on underreporting in L.A.
https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...re-Widespread-And-Less-Deadly-Than-We-Thought
BackgroundStudies coming out of NY and California are finally testing for antibodies in the general population....Most of us have them.....Like 55 to 85%
Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern.
To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters.
We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County.
Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay.
Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics.
We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity.
We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both.
Results
The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%).
Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%).
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Conclusions
The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases.
Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
No. What this means is that if this holds true for Canada, we already have up to 1.2 million covid cases in total rather than the 38k reported cases across the country. Death rate is very low.You are one twisted guy, or just a windup merchant maybe.
Science is our friend, not our enemy. Haven't you read the bible???
I knew it was yours. Why didn't you delete this one? It makes you look obsessed.Also my thread. Title wasn't very good.
COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California
Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern.
To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters.
We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay.
Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics.
We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity.
We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both.
Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%).
Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%).
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Conclusions
The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases.
Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern.
To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters.
We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay.
Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics.
We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity.
We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both.
Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%).
Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%).
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Conclusions
The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases.
Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
Deutschland
It’s no coincidence that the first large Western democracy to contain the spread of COVID-19, and the first to prepare to reopen its economy, is Germany, whose leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel, is a trained scientist.
Its institutions and politicians were temperate.
There was no competition for supplies and — due to Merkel’s science-based policymaking — the country ramped-up testing faster than and to a greater scale than most.
Now about 120,000 tests are administered daily among a population of 83 million, and the goal is to do even more.
Results have been rapid and flawless, thanks to a network of laboratories that, among other innovations, developed the first test in the world for this coronavirus.
Now Germany is so far advanced in controlling the virus that it is cautiously rolling out a system of issuing so-called “immunity cards” for those who have been shown to have developed antibodies to the disease, which will allow them to work, travel and socialize, thus allowing the country to gradually reopen its economy.
It’s no coincidence that the first large Western democracy to contain the spread of COVID-19, and the first to prepare to reopen its economy, is Germany, whose leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel, is a trained scientist.
Its institutions and politicians were temperate.
There was no competition for supplies and — due to Merkel’s science-based policymaking — the country ramped-up testing faster than and to a greater scale than most.
Now about 120,000 tests are administered daily among a population of 83 million, and the goal is to do even more.
Results have been rapid and flawless, thanks to a network of laboratories that, among other innovations, developed the first test in the world for this coronavirus.
Now Germany is so far advanced in controlling the virus that it is cautiously rolling out a system of issuing so-called “immunity cards” for those who have been shown to have developed antibodies to the disease, which will allow them to work, travel and socialize, thus allowing the country to gradually reopen its economy.
I hope so.Studies coming out of NY and California are finally testing for antibodies in the general population....Most of us have them.....Like 55 to 85%
