Dont Count on Your Defined Benefit Pension

fun-guy

Executive Senior Member
Jun 29, 2005
7,275
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The evidence is much clearer and closer to home. Take a look at the balance sheet and pension disclosure note of your favourite companies. Odds are, they have a ginormous pension liability.



http://www.canoe.ca/Canoe/Money/News/2012/10/05/20263196.html
That article is based on results for 2011 where returns were low single digits, however returns in 2012 were back up in double digits and helped reduce pension plan liabilities. I don't know all of them but I do know of several large plans that reduced their liabilities by billions, ie. teachers plan, OMERS, HOOP, etc... Don't know about single employer plans though.
 

splowed

Member
Dec 14, 2004
104
0
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If everybody keeps buying German korean and japanese cars there will be no pensions in the near future.
 

TeasePlease

Cockasian Brother
Aug 3, 2010
7,732
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That article is based on results for 2011 where returns were low single digits, however returns in 2012 were back up in double digits and helped reduce pension plan liabilities. I don't know all of them but I do know of several large plans that reduced their liabilities by billions, ie. teachers plan, OMERS, HOOP, etc... Don't know about single employer plans though.
Pension funding and valuation is based on long-term assumptions.


If everybody keeps buying German korean and japanese cars there will be no pensions in the near future.
Hi, it's 1970 calling. We'd like to bring unions back, too.
 

Rockslinger

Banned
Apr 24, 2005
32,773
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Teachers can retire as early as age 55 on their full gold plated pensions. Many of them live in communities in Florida.
 

Big Sleazy

Active member
Sep 13, 2004
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Many of these Pension Funds got stuck with bogus mortgaged backed securities. Securities that they were told were AAA rated and were in fact junk. The reality is that these pension funds have to have been earning the real rate of inflation plus a % to cover costs of management. Now many are stuck with junk bonds that were sold to them fraudulently. Until people wake up and understand what is really going on, we're screwed.

Perhaps this will eventually lead us back to real money and a production based economy rather than an economy based on debt and consumer spending.

BS
 

yolosohobby

Banned
Dec 25, 2012
1,915
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Many of these Pension Funds got stuck with bogus mortgaged backed securities. Securities that they were told were AAA rated and were in fact junk. The reality is that these pension funds have to have been earning the real rate of inflation plus a % to cover costs of management. Now many are stuck with junk bonds that were sold to them fraudulently. Until people wake up and understand what is really going on, we're screwed.

Perhaps this will eventually lead us back to real money and a production based economy rather than an economy based on debt and consumer spending.

BS
My view is you have this backwards. Institutional investors are supposed to be smart, sophisticated professionals. The pensions they managed REQUIRED 8% returns because of the promises made by pension trustees and actuaries. Therefore Wall Street and Bay Street created financial products to meet the demand that risk profile created. Turns out both sides, buyer and seller, were stupid because both failed to predict what a down market would do to the value of these securities. Real investors took the mark to market valuation hit.

Before you jump on me, i believe that Wall Street in particular should NOT have been bailed out. And if they bailed out the institution, the individuals in charge at that time should have been made bankrupt if they failed as a business.

The issue is what do we do now? These defined benefit promises are still out there. Fixed income securities, which are 60 to 70% of pension portfolios return 2% current and have exhausted all cap gains now , so stocks and alternatives have to make up that 6% gap, on a smaller allocation of assets , so they need to return 15% or so ... so riskier and riskier investments must be undertaken. Look at Teachers or CPPIB or The Caisse de Depots investment portfolio ... its not like even 5 years ago!

Anyhow its a very complex issue, and the chickens are just starting to come home to roost in many of these plans
 

FAST

Banned
Mar 12, 2004
10,064
1
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Sounds fair

Thanks. I knew it was high but even I am shocked. How long before 1:1?
The problem with the teachers plan is, if it can't make enough to support it self,...you and I will have to help them out,...makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

FAST
 

TeasePlease

Cockasian Brother
Aug 3, 2010
7,732
5
38
It's 1 retired to every 1.5 working. You kind of had it backwards.
Sorry, I was quoting from the article, which was working to retired ratio.

But seriously, does it make anyone feel better?


p.s., this is not a OTPP-specific issue. It's a Canadian issue. The CPP is in a similar boat.
 

bugsbunny

New member
Nov 17, 2001
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Burlington/Hamilton
Sorry, I was quoting from the article, which was working to retired ratio.

But seriously, does it make anyone feel better?


p.s., this is not a OTPP-specific issue. It's a Canadian issue. The CPP is in a similar boat.

The issue that I see with CPP is that the government will just jack up the rates again and probably remove the "opt-out" provision for those over 65 (I think it's 65...) who are still working because they have to.
 

yolosohobby

Banned
Dec 25, 2012
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sure they will all try incremental fixes, little tweaks here and there, BUT i don't think that will get them home and able to fulfill their promises. At some stage there are likely going to have to be real cuts. But there is no political will , yet. Its starting in places, of all places, like the Netherlands.

The squeeze is coming on both sides now .... retirees who built there lives around these defined pension promises .... and under 30s who cant find good jobs - and may even have debt, which are gonna get interesting to service when interest rates go up.
 

gdurham

Member
Jan 18, 2005
495
19
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sure they will all try incremental fixes, little tweaks here and there, BUT i don't think that will get them home and able to fulfill their promises. At some stage there are likely going to have to be real cuts. But there is no political will , yet. Its starting in places, of all places, like the Netherlands.

The squeeze is coming on both sides now .... retirees who built there lives around these defined pension promises .... and under 30s who cant find good jobs - and may even have debt, which are gonna get interesting to service when interest rates go up.
when is that going to happen? I've been waiting for increased interest rates for some time. I now hear reports that rates will stay low for several more years.
 

TeasePlease

Cockasian Brother
Aug 3, 2010
7,732
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The issue that I see with CPP is that the government will just jack up the rates again and probably remove the "opt-out" provision for those over 65 (I think it's 65...) who are still working because they have to.

Agreed. They will screw around squeeze us dry. But the fundamental issue is the declining workforce.
 

yolosohobby

Banned
Dec 25, 2012
1,915
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yeah, if i knew id be short 5 year treasuries up the wazoo .... but the markets are so rigged with carry trades (banks and hedge funds borrow money at 0.25% and buy bonds at 5yr 1%, 2% 10yrs and 3 % 30 years, levered up 50 to 1 and book those spreads- yes they are all still too big to fail) that it is very difficult to predict and you can go broke waiting. Remember the Fed is buying like 70% of all treasuries issued (total is now abt 2 trillion) and a shit load of mortgage backed securities (1.5 trillion) and therefore holds a 3.5 trillion dollar position

the argument for continued low rates , and fed printing is still strongly in play as japan (especially) and europe have just recently signalled similar policy (hence the jump in stocks) and chinese growth is slowing, people talking about deflation again. policymakers worldwide are doing EVERYTHING THEY CAN to try and juice the system , with the odd exception where they also are raising taxes

the world needs some new driver of economic growth ....
 
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