I think a lot of what you say is true but i also think that if Trump is elected they will be flying the Russian flag in Kiev within a year. After that Moldova? Transnistria? Who knows.
Moldova is part of NATO. Invasion into any
NATO nations would be way more tough
decision for Putin to make than attacking Ukraine.
All NATO members plus South Korea and Japan are sheltered
in the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
The power of the POTUS has its limit. Trump cannot
scuttle all the nukes in the U.S. arsenal. It is one thing
for Trump to say he will encourage Russia to attack as
a warning to Europe to spend more on buying U.S. arms.
Once he is president (again) it won't do him any good
to see Europe destroyed. It is implausible Trump as president
will openly invite Putin to fire nuclear missiles into NATO
members with assurance that the U.S. will not fire intercontinental
missiles back into Moscow. Conventional military invasion of
Europe from Russia cannot be entirely ruled out however
with Trump in charge. Europe just has to appease Trump to
be guaranteed security against Russia.