So gold will never surpass it's 1980 inflation adjusted high? Are you sure? Alright, well that settles it then. I'm selling all of my gold mining stocks, since commodities are all going to be in a perma-bear market until the end of time. Here I thought that stocks were cyclical, why didn't you tell me earlier?
Gold
- Thread starter goodguy1977
- Start date
Yeah, stocks, gold, oil , real estate, they are all cyclical. The difference is that you think the cycle is around 5 years, and I think the cycle can be much longer 10, 15+ years. So stocks will likely to keep rising and gold keep going down in the next 5 years. Why sit on money losing gold for all that time, when there is clear way to make money more easily?So gold will never surpass it's 1980 inflation adjusted high? Are you sure? Alright, well that settles it then. I'm selling all of my gold mining stocks, since commodities are all going to be in a perma-bear market until the end of time. Here I thought that stocks were cyclical, why didn't you tell me earlier?
About the inflation adjusted prices, the 1980 high was a short spike, and not a representative of long term moving averages. So it's a wishful thinking to expect repetition of previous freak peak.
Who is this "you" mentioned in my direction? I haven't bought gold nor am I going to. I'm more into other resources like oil and gas.Demand from gold hording suckers like you only buying them useless metals in hopes for price appreciation. Eventually, you horders will need to sell gold for money because the metal itself is useless without buyers. Its value is completely artificial and manipulated by commodity traders. Right now it is on the down cycle. I will buy them from you in 2 years at $600 / oz. thanks you very much! lol
What I did was point out the logical fallacy of your comment, something that still remains. Don't set up a strawman argument to divert from your clearly flawed argument.
And so you add ad hominem arguments to your comment history? What? Can't make your point in a reasonable and logical manner? Why do you have to be so douchey?I can tell you are fairly young. Gold peaked in 1980s then was in bear market until 2000. But that's ok. If you think 3 years or even 10 years is a long time. We need someone like you to short gold to. Thanks again.
Oil and gas are going down too. too much fracking and too cheap! Flawed argument? I make money, not argument. thank you very much.Who is this "you" mentioned in my direction? I haven't bought gold nor am I going to. I'm more into other resources like oil and gas.
What I did was point out the logical fallacy of your comment, something that still remains. Don't set up a strawman argument to divert from your clearly flawed argument.
However I think $700 - $800 / oz is a very likely scenario in 5 years.I'm a buyer of gold bullion when it dives under $1,000.00/oz. Also like silver @ related conditions...
The price of Gold has been pretty stable in Canadian dollars since 2011.In my opinion, gold is the real measure of value, the fiat currencies rise and fall, and will eventually become less valuable.
Any share of any company can become worthless. Gold always will be valuable.
Any share of any company can become worthless. Gold always will be valuable.
If you make money as well as you construct arguments, you don't make much at all.Oil and gas are going down too. too much fracking and too cheap! Flawed argument? I make money, not argument. thank you very much.
And a good investor knows how to make money in both up and down markets. Any monkey with a dart can make money in up markets. Those of us who have prospered through crisis after crisis can only shake our heads at newbs like you dispensing worthless hot air as haughty Investment advice.
Smart investors have positioned themselves to make millions in the coming gold bull market. At this point, shorting gold is a very dangerous play. The average cost of mining an ounce of gold is $1,200, and virtually no mining company in the world will be profitable if gold falls below $800. Right now the gold price is sitting in the $1,140-$1,180 range, how much further can the price of gold realistically fall in the medium-long term? The upside potential of going long and continuously building your position at these low prices is much more attractive than trying to short gold deep into a bear market.
The majority of analysts today are extremely bearish and are predicting gold to fall further, some have predicted it will fall to $800. In 2011, the majority of analysts were extremely bullish, with many analysts predicting that gold will hit $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000. Even Goldman Sachs who was bearish on gold from 2001-2010 turned bullish on gold in 2011, which as we know was the top of the bull market. Just as the extremely bullish sentiment by analysts signalled the top of the bull market, it's looking like the extremely bearish of analysts today is signalling the bottom of this bear market.
The herd is always wrong, buying high and selling low. People should figure out if they want to follow the herd or go against it.
The majority of analysts today are extremely bearish and are predicting gold to fall further, some have predicted it will fall to $800. In 2011, the majority of analysts were extremely bullish, with many analysts predicting that gold will hit $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000. Even Goldman Sachs who was bearish on gold from 2001-2010 turned bullish on gold in 2011, which as we know was the top of the bull market. Just as the extremely bullish sentiment by analysts signalled the top of the bull market, it's looking like the extremely bearish of analysts today is signalling the bottom of this bear market.
The herd is always wrong, buying high and selling low. People should figure out if they want to follow the herd or go against it.
most gold is produced in non US$ regions...so factor that into your production cost....Smart investors have positioned themselves to make millions in the coming gold bull market. At this point, shorting gold is a very dangerous play. The average cost of mining an ounce of gold is $1,200, and virtually no mining company in the world will be profitable if gold falls below $800. Right now the gold price is sitting in the $1,140-$1,180 range, how much further can the price of gold realistically fall in the medium-long term? The upside potential of going long and continuously building your position at these low prices is much more attractive than trying to short gold deep into a bear market.
The majority of analysts today are extremely bearish and are predicting gold to fall further, some have predicted it will fall to $800. In 2011, the majority of analysts were extremely bullish, with many analysts predicting that gold will hit $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000. Even Goldman Sachs who was bearish on gold from 2001-2010 turned bullish on gold in 2011, which as we know was the top of the bull market. Just as the extremely bullish sentiment by analysts signalled the top of the bull market, it's looking like the extremely bearish of analysts today is signalling the bottom of this bear market.
The herd is always wrong, buying high and selling low. People should figure out if they want to follow the herd or go against it.
You've never heard of the trend is your friend?The herd is always wrong, buying high and selling low. People should figure out if they want to follow the herd or go against it.
At this point, I don't see any compelling reason to get into precious metals.
Exactly. If you go against the trend you get bruned. That's all the argument you need to make money. Those trying to pick top or bottom also get bruned.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-year-low-on-chinese-selling/article25589462/
The commodity and the producers are really getting hit in anticipation of a rate increase in the U.S. and strength in the $U.S. The gold sector is pulling down the whole TSX index.
The commodity and the producers are really getting hit in anticipation of a rate increase in the U.S. and strength in the $U.S. The gold sector is pulling down the whole TSX index.
When rates are trending up in the US at year end (as most pundits expected) the effect will be a lower $US and a higher gold prices. Don't ask me why I come up with this. Just watch.
I am watching another gold fool getting burnedWhen rates are trending up in the US at year end (as most pundits expected) the effect will be a lower $US and a higher gold prices. Don't ask me why I come up with this. Just watch.
The smaller gold miners will belly up from lack of adequate cash flows. The larger and profitable miners will consolidate the market further driving down costs and increase profits for the long term. The question is when do you get back in when increase in rates will lead to a decrease in demand for gold and increase in demand for treasuries.
US crude oil prices hit lowest since 2009, eliminating thousands of jobs
Further appreciation of the USD is not going to be
beneficial to the U.S. economy in terms of job creation
given that shale oil boom has been the major source of
job growth (and I mean high-paid jobs) until recently.
Action or inaction of the FED to put a lid on the rising
USD relative to the Yuan could be bullish to gold.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/21/us-crude-oil-prices-lowest-since-2009-jobs
Debbie Carlson
Aug 21th 2015
America’s oil boom is faltering, and with US crude oil prices hitting lows unseen since 2009 this week, experts believe the fall may continue taking thousands of jobs with it.
Consumers may cheer the lower prices at the pump, but jobs are being lost in the energy industry across the world. In June, the Energy Information Administration said the US petroleum industry lost about 6.5% of its jobs from October to April, or about 35,000 of its 538,000 workers, citing US Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
On Wednesday, Royal Dutch Shell said it would eliminate 6,500 jobs worldwide as the company tries to reduce costs because of the lower oil prices. Declines in oil and natural gas extraction and support employment tend to lag declines in crude oil prices, so given the recent return to lower prices, more job cuts could be on the way.
Global stock markets have been rattled by the fall and continuing woes in China. The Dow Jones Industrial average hit a low for 2015 on Thursday and is expected to come under renewed pressure on Friday.
“Globally there’s probably been approaching a quarter-million layoffs from the oil industry. And hundreds and billions in cancelled projects,” said Walter Zimmermann Jr, vice president and chief technical analyst at United-ICAP. “Houston is getting hit especially hard. You go to Houston and nobody talks about the economic benefit of lower oil prices. And certainly no one is talking about that in the Bakken Field [North Dakota].”
So far, he added, the impact on consumers is limited. “The problem is when people think of consumers saving a few pennies at the pump, they’re not going to take that money and buy a new house or a new car or send their child to college. They’re probably going to buy extra socks and potatoes,” Zimmermann said.
The boom that started in 2008 when oil prices reached nearly $150 a barrel – high enough to make new fracking technology affordable. All that fracking oil has contributed to a glut and the inevitable boom and bust cycle has come full circle again.
But the price is also being hit by the jitters affecting financial markets overall, such as the stronger US dollar, general weakness in commodity prices, fears about China’s economy and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s possible interest-rate hike.
On Wednesday, US futures prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the US benchmark, settled at $40.80 a barrel, the lowest since March 2009, while Brent prices closed at $46.90. Prices are slightly higher Thursday.
Demand isn’t all that bad. International Energy Agency raised its global oil-demand forecast by 1.6m barrels daily, the fastest pace in five years. But supply is overwhelming use. Although the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries has a production quota of 30m barrels a day June, the cartel said on 11 August in its monthly oil market report that it pumped an average of 31.5m barrels a day in July, the most in three years.
US supplies are stout, too. On Wednesday the Energy Information Administration surprised market participants when it said supplies rose 2.62m barrels to 456.21m barrels last week, the highest inventory levels in 80 years. Traders had expected a drop in supplies.
“News on the supply side gets worse each passing day,” said Bill O’Neill, one of the principals with LOGIC Advisors.
There could be further supply problems down the road. If the Iran nuclear deal is passed, it will allow the Middle East nation to start shipping oil, possibly as much as one million barrels a day, said Commerzbank in a research note. However, Iranian oil won’t come online immediately since it will take time to restart operations. Commerzbank sees Iranian oil output at a maximum of 500,000 barrels per day until year-end and by another 500,000 barrels per day next year.
Dan Heckman, national investment consultant for US Bank Wealth Management, said China’s moves to shore up its recent problems also affected oil. China is a major consumer of most commodities and its actions have great impacts on the sector.
“China sent a major shockwave through this market and others as well when the devaluated the currency. One, [it was] a surprise move which markets never like, and two, people started to realize perhaps their economic issues are worse than people realize,” he said.
As far as where prices may go from here, for now the direction points down. O’Neill said his firm has held a target price of $39 for WTI, adding that prices still could drift lower. “There doesn’t seem to be anything on the immediate horizon to turn things around,” he said.
Some energy-market watchers have predicted prices could get as low as $10 or $15. Zimmermann said those extreme calls might be a sign that crude-oil prices are reaching a bottom. He said when oil prices reached nearly $150 in July 2008 there were similar calls for oil to hit $250. Instead it fell to about $34 at year’s end during the financial crisis.
“It’s safe to say we’re entering the general timing window of a 15-year cycle low,” he said.
Further appreciation of the USD is not going to be
beneficial to the U.S. economy in terms of job creation
given that shale oil boom has been the major source of
job growth (and I mean high-paid jobs) until recently.
Action or inaction of the FED to put a lid on the rising
USD relative to the Yuan could be bullish to gold.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/21/us-crude-oil-prices-lowest-since-2009-jobs
Debbie Carlson
Aug 21th 2015
America’s oil boom is faltering, and with US crude oil prices hitting lows unseen since 2009 this week, experts believe the fall may continue taking thousands of jobs with it.
Consumers may cheer the lower prices at the pump, but jobs are being lost in the energy industry across the world. In June, the Energy Information Administration said the US petroleum industry lost about 6.5% of its jobs from October to April, or about 35,000 of its 538,000 workers, citing US Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
On Wednesday, Royal Dutch Shell said it would eliminate 6,500 jobs worldwide as the company tries to reduce costs because of the lower oil prices. Declines in oil and natural gas extraction and support employment tend to lag declines in crude oil prices, so given the recent return to lower prices, more job cuts could be on the way.
Global stock markets have been rattled by the fall and continuing woes in China. The Dow Jones Industrial average hit a low for 2015 on Thursday and is expected to come under renewed pressure on Friday.
“Globally there’s probably been approaching a quarter-million layoffs from the oil industry. And hundreds and billions in cancelled projects,” said Walter Zimmermann Jr, vice president and chief technical analyst at United-ICAP. “Houston is getting hit especially hard. You go to Houston and nobody talks about the economic benefit of lower oil prices. And certainly no one is talking about that in the Bakken Field [North Dakota].”
So far, he added, the impact on consumers is limited. “The problem is when people think of consumers saving a few pennies at the pump, they’re not going to take that money and buy a new house or a new car or send their child to college. They’re probably going to buy extra socks and potatoes,” Zimmermann said.
The boom that started in 2008 when oil prices reached nearly $150 a barrel – high enough to make new fracking technology affordable. All that fracking oil has contributed to a glut and the inevitable boom and bust cycle has come full circle again.
But the price is also being hit by the jitters affecting financial markets overall, such as the stronger US dollar, general weakness in commodity prices, fears about China’s economy and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s possible interest-rate hike.
On Wednesday, US futures prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the US benchmark, settled at $40.80 a barrel, the lowest since March 2009, while Brent prices closed at $46.90. Prices are slightly higher Thursday.
Demand isn’t all that bad. International Energy Agency raised its global oil-demand forecast by 1.6m barrels daily, the fastest pace in five years. But supply is overwhelming use. Although the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries has a production quota of 30m barrels a day June, the cartel said on 11 August in its monthly oil market report that it pumped an average of 31.5m barrels a day in July, the most in three years.
US supplies are stout, too. On Wednesday the Energy Information Administration surprised market participants when it said supplies rose 2.62m barrels to 456.21m barrels last week, the highest inventory levels in 80 years. Traders had expected a drop in supplies.
“News on the supply side gets worse each passing day,” said Bill O’Neill, one of the principals with LOGIC Advisors.
There could be further supply problems down the road. If the Iran nuclear deal is passed, it will allow the Middle East nation to start shipping oil, possibly as much as one million barrels a day, said Commerzbank in a research note. However, Iranian oil won’t come online immediately since it will take time to restart operations. Commerzbank sees Iranian oil output at a maximum of 500,000 barrels per day until year-end and by another 500,000 barrels per day next year.
Dan Heckman, national investment consultant for US Bank Wealth Management, said China’s moves to shore up its recent problems also affected oil. China is a major consumer of most commodities and its actions have great impacts on the sector.
“China sent a major shockwave through this market and others as well when the devaluated the currency. One, [it was] a surprise move which markets never like, and two, people started to realize perhaps their economic issues are worse than people realize,” he said.
As far as where prices may go from here, for now the direction points down. O’Neill said his firm has held a target price of $39 for WTI, adding that prices still could drift lower. “There doesn’t seem to be anything on the immediate horizon to turn things around,” he said.
Some energy-market watchers have predicted prices could get as low as $10 or $15. Zimmermann said those extreme calls might be a sign that crude-oil prices are reaching a bottom. He said when oil prices reached nearly $150 in July 2008 there were similar calls for oil to hit $250. Instead it fell to about $34 at year’s end during the financial crisis.
“It’s safe to say we’re entering the general timing window of a 15-year cycle low,” he said.
