H1N1 pandemic -- progression

[fuji]

Excuse me ? Do we not have widespread vaccination for seasonal flu already? Did you forget that?

I'm not sure if you are retarded or just uninformed, so I will explain to you something I thought was well known.

People have natural immunity to the seasonal flu virus, even without vaccination, owing to prior infections by related viruses. Aside from people over 65 no-one has immunity to H1N1.

Even without vaccination for seasonal flu a lot of people won't get it. In the case of H1N1 without vaccination everyone will get it.

Plainly with widespread vaccination the goal would be to protect the majority of the population which would both dramatically slow the spread of the disease to non-vaccinated people by limiting attack vectors, and also obviously outright protect people.

H1N1 is going to spread to the population at a given rate, if we significantly slow it down, plainly significantly fewer people will die.

Australia has begun testing a vaccine. When Canada will start doing so is an open question.

 

[train]

I'm not sure if you are retarded or just uninformed, so I will explain to you something I thought was well known.

People have natural immunity to the seasonal flu virus, even without vaccination, owing to prior infections by related viruses. Aside from people over 65 no-one has immunity to H1N1.

Sorry Fuji but doesn't this make you the "retarded one" since you statements mean you have a greater chance of winning ? You keep getting the simple stuff completely backwards and then trying to bluster your way out of it by insults. Instead you just keep digging yourself in deeper.

Show some class and either accept the wager as offered or back away. Stop with the schoolboy name calling?

 

[fuji]

Show some class and either accept the wager as offered or back away.

I reject your wager, then, because the vaccine stands a good chance of being effective, if it can be produced fast enough.

If we go right back to the beginning our dispute is over whehter the WHO acted sensibly in declaring a pandemic alert, with me saying yes, and you saying they over-reacted.

The vaccine is a product of WHO's efforts, and if that effort manages to stop H1N1 before it kills too many people then my point is made, the alert was necessary. My point is equally made if they fail in making the vaccine on time and it kills a lot of people.

The only case in which you get the point is if they do nothing and nothing much comes of it.

Also, flu season runs through the winter, it doesn't end on January 1st. It is more than possible that H1N1 will mutate into something much more virulent in March or April.

At any rate yes I think with NO vaccine it's realistic to project >1000 dead from H1N1 by the end of the year.

What I actually think will happen is there will be some, but not enough, vaccine in place by the end of the year that H1N1 kills a lot of people (more than seasonal certainly) but that the worst cases like 90k dead are avoided by vaccinating enough of the population to slow it down.

If we can get healthcare workers vaccinated that is huge, it means the hostpitals will be fully staffed. If we can get shcool kids vaccinated that eliminates a LOT of the attack vectors. After that the beneifts of vaccinating decline substantially.

 

[train]

The only case in which you are right is if they do nothing and nothing much comes of it.

Disagree but I guess that is no surprise. The only way I would be wrong would be if they provided the same level of vaccines as the do for seasonal flu and more people died.

Given that the vaccine won't be available until late this year and we don't know how effective it will be we should have a pretty good idea by November.

I don't call even 1,000 people dying in Canada as being nothing. However, if that ends up being the case WHO has not done the world a favour by redirecting funding from other, more critical, health causes.

 

[fuji]

Disagree but I guess that is no surprise. The only way I would be wrong would be if they provided the same level of vaccines as the do for seasonal flu and more people died.

Excluding people over 65, sure.