I think it is a healthy conversation.Now what happens if the stereo you purchased has inherently faulty controls? For instance, they neither allow you to turn the stereo off (disturbing your sleep) nor to hike it real loud (making your parties lame). No amount of fiddling with the controls will do much here. But a better analogy here is your neighbor has the stereo, and while you have some access to the controls (bash bash on wall, knock on door etc), ultimately your neighbor is calling the shots and he is really into high sound (big profits).
The "ideological" point of difference is clear here: is private sector profit motives inimical to the goal of government mandated services?
But we live in the real world, so I take your point that the no-fault system is so ripe for moral hazard problems (I know you know what I mean) that a fault system might be a fix for bad controls. But now what you have to answer is why a switch (!) to a tort/fault system will solve the problems partly generated by things like no-fault, given that no-fault is one of the measures thought to address the problems with fault systems! For instance, that in pure tort systems the ratio of compensation to economic loss declines as the severity of the injury increases. Small claimants abuse the system and get alot, and large claimants truly in need get screwed. The moral hazard problem of inflated claims affects fault systems too. Then there is the potential boondoggle of snide lawyers (is there another kind?!) eating up costs in proving fault claims, driving up overall costs.
Are your savings from fault systems due, for instance, to people taking less coverage and thus paying lower premiums to match the lower coverage? That sounds great until it is realized the less well off might get screwed in the process, having few options for affordable and adequate coverage. If the savings come from elsewhere, how?
I hope the tone of my response indicates I'm not bagging your argument. It's a healthy conversation.
In your example you would have to take into account the massive disruption of destroying the jobs of the tens of thousands of people in the private insurance system, and the cost of building a state run system. None of which happens for free.
I know the controls can, and do work when adjusted properly, because I have been around when they were better adjusted and have an office just full of insurance data.
Lastly, I am confident that a move away from no fault would save money for two reasons. Thre first is that a system that imports liability has to reduce costs. Lets say that instead of no fault you brought in a system that gave the same benefits, just based on who was at fault for the accident. It here is 100% fault for each accident, and two people are injured in each accident, then you must cut the cost of each accident (on the benefits side which is the expensive side) at least in half by simply taking that step.
Secondly, the data is out there. When other jurisdictions have moved either to or from no fault costs go up for down. We can see what others have done and learn from it. Which is why this is not simply a philosphical problem.