How much are you down this year?

[Ceiling Cat]

NFG $3.43 today.
thx for the heads up!

I did not buy NFG, but I did have a notation recommending a buy on Sept 25 @ $2.96. If I did buy at that time I would have been up 15.15%.
The high for NFG was $3.43 today but it dropped to $3.30, my spot assessment is that NFG will go again.

 

[K Douglas]

I do have a core group of companies that I have held for at least 10 years

Imperial Oil. 20 shares purchased in 2004 at $25. 3 for 1 stock split in 2006 now hold 60 shares with a value of $129 per share as of yesterday. Annual rate of return 13.9%.
RBC. 100 shares purchased in 2009 at $28.35. These shares are now worth $203.60 per share as of yesterday's close. Average annual rate of return 13.1%
Bank of America. 200 shares purchased in 2009 at $5.10 USD. These shares are now worth $52 USD as of yesterday's close. Average annual rate of return 15.6%
Enbridge Inc. 50 shares purchased in 2011 at $29.85. Worth $69 as of yesterday. Average annual rate of return 6.2%

The rates of return don't include dividends earned, just straight share appreciation. That being said I took a bath on a few stocks over the years. Nortel, Ciena and QLT were the worst of the lot. Cost me tens of thousands in realized capital losses.

 

[HungSowel]

Everything is green for me except Hydro One and SCHD. When liberation day hit, I panicked and looked for a super low beta stock to hold my money in. The two lowest beta stocks on the TSX were Loblaws and Hydro One, I picked the wrong one, I am down 6.5% on it since I bought it in May, I am hoping for it to hit -5% before I sell it.

Right now, I am up about 6% for the year over my entire portfolio; Non reg, TFSA, RRSP, GICs. If the year ends with me being up 7% overall, I would be relieved.

I have GICs maturing this October, 2 year @ 5.85%. I do not know what to do with the money, some banks are offering 3 month promo rates @4.75ish %, I might just bounce the money around taking advantage of the promo rates from bank to bank.

 

[rhuarc29]

My portfolio is up 28% this year. A big part of this is that I made a large bet in Nvidia when it was $100.06/share, and sold only a few months later when it hit $170/share. MASSIVE opportunity after Liberation Day, so much so that NVDA made up about 42% of my portfolio. I haven't made a bet like that since 2009.

I also put a lot into double long gold ETFs after selling NVDA, which have gained north of 30% in just a few months too. And still gaining in Bitcoin (though not as extreme as my gains in the previous two years).

This marks three years in a row where my returns have been over 20%. I have no illusions about being able to maintain that streak!

 

[Ceiling Cat]

NFG @$3.40 Oct 1, close. May be ready to go again. The mountain is rumbling. I do not know why Von gets exited every time he hears New Found Gold?

I am down $0.00 this year. I was down $20,000+ last year. The trick is to offset your losses with your gains.

 

[rajput]

I am down $0.00 this year. I was down $20,000+ last year. The trick is to offset your losses with your gains.

2024 was, by most accounts, a fantastic year in the Canadian financial markets, as seen by S&P/TSX Composite Index's* total return of 21.7%
After hitting 57 all-time highs during the year, the S&P 500 finished 2024 with a total return of 25.0%. That followed another far above-average year in 2023 when the index rose 26.3%.

 

[Ceiling Cat]

No matter how bad the markets are in a particular year, if you know what you are doing, it is always a good year. You never see any banks or financial institutions (Canada) going out of business. That is not to say you cannot take a calculated risk to make an unusually high score. In the market of the last 5–6 years, you have to have rotating strategies. In March 2020, when many stocks dropped 40–60%, many people thought it was the end of the world. For the next 2 years, stocks went up, and it was a waiting game of buy and sell. Those who were able to gauge the situation were able to take advantage of an ascending market. If you are able to see the big picture and assess the situation day by day, hour by hour, and if you have the ability to look at a chart and within 5 or 10 seconds know if it is a good buy, then you are investing with the probability of profit rather than speculating. Many investors speculate on stocks like AC (Air Canada), BMO (Bank of Montreal), or CTC (Canadian Tire Corp.), believing these stocks will be profitable merely because they are big and ubiquitous. While these are not bad stocks to buy and hold, they are slow to produce profit. The sophisticated investor will know all the tools available to him to make a profit. The speculators do not have all the tools and do not know how to use them. All successful investors who become sophisticated investors start out as unsophisticated speculators.

 

[K Douglas]

Just had a t con with my investment guy today. I'm up 12% so far this year. We've increased exposure to gold and silver while reducing the blue chip assets which comprised about 35% of my holdings.

 

[stinkynuts]

My portfolio is up 28% this year. A big part of this is that I made a large bet in Nvidia when it was $100.06/share, and sold only a few months later when it hit $170/share. MASSIVE opportunity after Liberation Day, so much so that NVDA made up about 42% of my portfolio. I haven't made a bet like that since 2009.

I also put a lot into double long gold ETFs after selling NVDA, which have gained north of 30% in just a few months too. And still gaining in Bitcoin (though not as extreme as my gains in the previous two years).

This marks three years in a row where my returns have been over 20%. I have no illusions about being able to maintain that streak!

I did the same. I was all in on bitcoin, then when it crashed in March I bought over 100k of Nvidia, still holding.

Also went big on UNH at near lows.

 

[stinkynuts]

Just had a t con with my investment guy today. I'm up 12% so far this year. We've increased exposure to gold and silver while reducing the blue chip assets which comprised about 35% of my holdings.

I think the next two months will be good for crypto snd equities. After that, there is likely to be some correction.

Market is way overpriced. VCE and VEA are good ETFs to gain exposure outside of the US market.

 

[stinkynuts]

https://chatgpt.com/c/68df39a4-f504-832d-b03d-18ef7fd94d25

The global money supply is likely to continue to increase until early next year. Trump will assign a new Fed chair who will slash interest rates.

We haven’t had a euphoric period in crypto yet, and that usually signals the top.

One signal that we are approaching the top is that there is more activity in these threads.

When this thread becomes filled with excitement, it will signal the top. So far we are not there yet.

 

[stinkynuts]

Gold and silver are probably better in many ways than bonds. Both aim to preserve assets, but one is real, physical assets, the other is a promisory note that can be inflated away.

If inflation were to skyrocket or if there were to be a major worldwide catastrophe (deadly pandemic, world war, economic crisis/collapse) both bonds and stocks will plummet in value, while gold and silver will skyrocket.

I am going to probably invest in silver for the remainder of Trump’s term.

I absolutely guarantee you that a major crisis will happen because of Trump. We are only 9 months in in his 4 year term and look how much shit has happened.

 

[stinkynuts]

Probably a good allocation after the bull run is:

10% cash
20% precious metals
70% stocks (International, commodities, health, oil, utilities, consumer staples)

 

[Gators]

I am pure income investor. I did very well on ABX. I do have physical silver and gold. I am up 54% YTD including divvy. My accountant asked me to consider trimming my position. Like others have stated I guess 2026Q1 is good time to exit,

 

[stinkynuts]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-warns-stock-market-drawdown-is-coming.html

 

[rhuarc29]

I did the same. I was all in on bitcoin, then when it crashed in March I bought over 100k of Nvidia, still holding.

Also went big on UNH at near lows.

Nice, if you're still holding Nvidia, you're around $190/share now, right?
Yeah, I got cold feet on that. It's no longer oversold, but that doesn't mean $200 is out of the question.

I see you plan on investing in silver. Another trade that earned me a 50% gain from 2022 to 2024. I still prefer gold right now over silver though.

 

[stinkynuts]

Nice, if you're still holding Nvidia, you're around $190/share now, right?
Yeah, I got cold feet on that. It's no longer oversold, but that doesn't mean $200 is out of the question.

I see you plan on investing in silver. Another trade that earned me a 50% gain from 2022 to 2024. I still prefer gold right now over silver though.

NVDA can still go much higher, but I'm probably going to cash out soon. There are much better values out there.

The silver to gold ratio is 100 to 1, which is very high, meaning silver is undervalued relative to gold. Traditionally, it's been about 20 to 1. Meaning, if silver were to 5X from today, it would be absolutely normal.

Many are saying there is going to be a massive blow-off top, and that we're nowhere near the peak:

 

[rhuarc29]

NVDA can still go much higher, but I'm probably going to cash out soon. There are much better values out there.

The silver to gold ratio is 100 to 1, which is very high, meaning silver is undervalued relative to gold. Traditionally, it's been about 20 to 1. Meaning, if silver were to 5X from today, it would be absolutely normal.

How far back are you going to find 20 to 1? Best I can remember was around 35 to 1 in that crazy run late 2010 and early 2011. I'd say it's more likely to trade in the 60-80 to 1 range. Which isn't far off where it's running today. It was at 100 to 1 back in the Spring, which I would have jumped on, but I had my money tied up in Nvidia at the time.

 

[stinkynuts]

How far back are you going to find 20 to 1? Best I can remember was around 35 to 1 in that crazy run late 2010 and early 2011. I'd say it's more likely to trade in the 60-80 to 1 range. Which isn't far off where it's running today. It was at 100 to 1 back in the Spring, which I would have jumped on, but I had my money tied up in Nvidia at the time.

My bad, historically it’s been 20:1, but not in modern times. It looks like the ratio is about right for today.

 

[stinkynuts]

I'm torn between holding on to very profitable tech companies that have high PE ratios, and selling for better value, international index funds.

Some say it's time to ditch these AI-hyped companies, but others say that's a mistake.

If the dotcom bubble is going to repeat, clearly it's time to sell. The market is clearly overvalued, and one has to be very careful. However, it seems to me that I always regret selling my tech stocks after they've made a huge run.

I would rather be safe than sorry:

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