First, the mid-term elections are next November. While there appears to be a congressional seat in play on November 4, the real action in 12 months or so. And considering your god king Trump is growing more unpopular, even with his base, you know it probably won’t go well for the GOP. Now, I’m not going to be so bold as to predict a “Blue Wave,” like many MAGAs were in 2022, because a LOT can change in year, but Trump’s policies have directly led to an increase in inflation and is likely sending the US economy into a recession. Let’s also say that MGT is calling Trump out. She needs to be re-elected in 2026, so is she a bellwether person who will show a lot of MAGA-diehards are showing less support for Trump? She understands that a lot of people in her district are going to be hurt by the Big Beautiful Bill, especially how it’ll jack up health insurance costs.
And the other important thing to consider is that a lot of people who held their nose and voted Trump in 2024 will likely NOT do that again. They see how he’s trying to dismantle the democracy, and governing by decree. They will vote Democrat to ensure there is a check to the presidential power grab.
Now, we know Trump must see the writing on the wall. That’s one reason he’s asking Texas and other GOP-led states to gerrymander in the middle of the decade, so he can hopefully retain control of both houses. That’s fear. And it’s also why Democratic led states, like California, are fighting back. And, as studies have shown, Blue states, for the most part, are not anywhere near as gerrymandered as Red states. So, theoretically, they could significantly increase their seat count.
Finally, when it comes to Red states gerrymandering, this could blow up in their face. Areas where they thought they had broad support could be divided into new districts. On paper, it could mean more seats, but in practice, they could swing Blue. Now, is this likely? It is really hard to say. Trump is DEEPLY unpopular outside the cult. He is underwater in polling for virtually EVERYTHING, from immigration to the economy. That could send some GOPers to hold their nose and go Blue.
But, we won’t know until next November.
