Ontario By-election Predictions

[train]

http://www.thestar.com/news/queensp...ons_the_issues_the_players_and_the_polls.html

What are everyone's predictions for the results of the by-elections tomorrow?

 

[Possum Trot]

Wonder if the voters will actually do what needs to be done.

 

[fuji]

I predict the liberals will lose the contested by elections.

 

[red]

i think if any liberals are elected it will be a real shame

 

[Moviefan-2]

I picked the Liberals going 2 for 5.

Here's my breakdown, based on news reports, unreliable polling, my brief trip the other day through parts of Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and a touch of positive thinking.

Windsor-Tecumseh -- NDP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore -- PC
London West -- PC
Scarborough-Guildwood -- Liberal (subways for everyone!)
Ottawa South -- Liberal

 

[terom]

I see Mayor Ford was in Etobicoke-Lakeshore this week campaigning on behalf of Doug Holyday. I wonder if the mayor took personal time off work, or was he campaigning on the Toronto taxpayer's dime ??

 

[ogibowt]

I picked the Liberals going 2 for 5.

Here's my breakdown, based on news reports, unreliable polling, my brief trip the other day through parts of Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and a touch of positive thinking.

Windsor-Tecumseh -- NDP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore -- PC
London West -- PC
Scarborough-Guildwood -- Liberal (subways for everyone!)
Ottawa South -- Liberal

i think you are spot on..ottawa South could go Cons however

 

[train]

Well the Liberals went 2 for 5, losing 3 previously held seats. Will this result give Horwath the backbone to finally do the right thing?

 

[blackrock13]

I see Mayor Ford was in Etobicoke-Lakeshore this week campaigning on behalf of Doug Holyday. I wonder if the mayor took personal time off work, or was he campaigning on the Toronto taxpayer's dime ??

Exactly how do you establish that?

 

[terom]

Well the Liberals went 2 for 5, losing 3 previously held seats. Will this result give Horwath the backbone to finally do the right thing?

Well Tim Hudak only won one seat - clearly he's not a credible alternative to the Liberals

 

[train]

Well Tim Hudak only won one seat - clearly he's not a credible alternative to the Liberals

Perhaps, but the only seat he should have won and didn't was London west. As oldjones would squawk the Consevatives goy more votes than any other part in the combined 5 seats.

That really isn't the point though. The point is that this government needs to be fired, deserves to be fired and if that means the Dippers, so be it.

 

[omegaphallic]

Well the Liberals went 2 for 5, losing 3 previously held seats. Will this result give Horwath the backbone to finally do the right thing?

The depends on Wynn, it will be hard to fire Wynn if she continues to fold like a cheap suit.

Which is very likely. She's lost three out of six bielection to the NDP and on to Hadak in her home turf of the GTA.

She's pinned her hopes on Justin Trudeau, that's why she reversed on the Senate, but he's proving to be a useless flake.

The Liberals scandals are snowballing and the Liberals relations with Labour are not as good as they want them to appear.

Dalton gave Wynn not a premiership, but a flaming bag of dog poop shaped like a premiership.

For Andreas part she just as to milk win while the scandals continues to snowball and Haduk continues to piss people off.

 

[Moviefan-2]

The Liberals scandals are snowballing and the Liberals relations with Labour are not as good as they want them to appear.

The Liberals' relations with labour are probably worse than they appear.

The decision to run Ken Coran in London West was a huge mistake. Apart from the election result that night, it reheated some of the bitterness about the Liberal government's decision to quash collective bargaining and impose a contract on teachers.

Interestingly, the relations with unions have become more poisoned at the same time the government is trying to find ways to get its books in order. That will be tricky.

The fallout from the Ken Coran candidacy may be the long-term result from the byelections that has the biggest impact.

 

[fuji]

For Andreas part she just as to milk win while the scandals continues to snowball and Haduk continues to piss people off.

The by-election was a disaster for the NDP. Given all the bad press that the Liberals are getting the NDP should have walked all over them.

Instead it came down to a neck and neck horse race between the Liberals and the PC's with the NDP a distant third.

 

[ogibowt]

The by-election was a disaster for the NDP. Given all the bad press that the Liberals are getting the NDP should have walked all over them.

Instead it came down to a neck and neck horse race between the Liberals and the PC's with the NDP a distant third.

are you on glue,,,the NDP won Windsor and London...they had no chance in Etobicke, a no name up against 2 heavyweights............the Libs run a popular candidate in Scarborough, and they were never gonna win in Ottawa...................the big lose was Hudak, if the cop Steve something was running in Etobicoke instead of Holyday, , he would of been shut out..not good for a Opposition Leader going against a perceived tired, vulnerable governing party..

 

[omegaphallic]

are you on glue,,,the NDP won Windsor and London...they had no chance in Etobicke, a no name up against 2 heavyweights............the Libs run a popular candidate in Scarborough, and they were never gonna win in Ottawa...................the big lose was Hudak, if the cop Steve something was running in Etobicoke instead of Holyday, , he would of been shut out..not good for a Opposition Leader going against a perceived tired, vulnerable governing party..

I agree, seriously Andrea has won 50 percent of the bielections since the GE, she's doing fine. She was even close in Scarbough Guildwood which was a three way race. The NDP has no history of winning that riding and it had a couple of scandals of thier own in the riding thanks to Adam and how he got the nomination.

So yeah Andrea has to be feeling pretty good right now.

 

[Insidious Von]

Andrea is in no hurry to bring down the government, she'll bide her and aim for a majority.

The gas plant fiasco will play itself out and Huddak will go hard right. She'll position herself as a moderate and get the big prize.

More of these types of outbursts and she's a shoe-in.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/06/12/andrea-horwath-whore-john-oakley-show_n_3428354.html

 

[fuji]

Andrea is in no hurry to bring down the government, she'll bide her and aim for a majority.

Don't you have to win more than 1 seat in 5 to form a majority?

 

[train]

She won 2.

Eventually she will develop some backbone or a desire to do the "right thing" .

 

[terom]

Eventually she will develop some backbone or a desire to do the "right thing" .

As long as Hudak automatically votes against the government, and Horwath can get whatever she wants by playing the 'balance of power' card, why would she change??