Time for John Tory to define himself with Rob Ford in rehab: Jameshttp://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...ine_himself_with_rob_ford_in_rehab_james.html
Since he staged a hurried campaign launch for mayor of Toronto in February, John Tory has taken a slow ascent to public consciousness. Yet, there he is in the latest Forum Research poll sitting second among would-be voters, just six points behind front-runner Olivia Chow.
It’s not so much what Tory has done. In fact, the former Rogers executive has done too little to define himself to an anxious electorate. Rather, his rise in the polls is a product of the alternatives facing voters...
Some expected a more precipitous fall — maybe eight to 10 percentage points for Ford. But they forget that more than 80 per cent of Ford supporters say they have no second choice in the race for mayor.
If Tory is to overtake Chow, he must become a viable alternative to diehard Ford backers, especially as they bleed away, slowly, with each revelation about their guy.
Lorne Bozinoff of Forum Research says Tory stands to benefit the most if Ford does not return to the race. Ford supporters can’t bring themselves to going clear across the political spectrum to back Chow on the left, he says.
For example, in a speculative race with Ford out of the way, respondents to Forum’s poll are in a quandary. They picked Chow at 34 per cent, Tory at 32 per cent, with Stintz and Soknacki at 6 per cent each. In this scenario, 22 per cent — mostly Ford supporters — are undecided.
It is those voters that Tory would have to woo, and carefully, seeing they are emotionally invested in Ford to the point of being offended by harsh criticism of their candidate.
Tory is the least divisive of the candidates. He’s seen as a conciliator, a builder, someone to bridge the chasm between the suburbs and downtown. At least, those who know him see him that way.
The rest want more. Meanwhile, Tory is many people’s second choice — someone who does not generate a sense of alienation or fear.
Tory supporters say he is a big tent candidate; a sensible Conservative. His detractors say his slow and methodical release of campaign platform — holding on to substantive announcements for later in the race — is keeping many from bedding down in the big tent.
The way they see it, a more forceful and forthright campaign — with guns trained at Chow and Ford — would have long established Tory as the one to sweep out Ford and bring in sensible, fiscally-responsible policies to city hall, without the drama. Instead, they say, Tory has opted to run from behind — looking for the right moment to make a move.
Marathon race that it is, from January 1 to October 27, a competitive campaign for mayor of Toronto will almost always encounter several turning points.
Ford’s decision to take a breather is the big one. Wrapped in scandal, tainted with allegations of crack use and behaviour unbecoming a mayor, a much larger date looms: his return; or failure to return. Is this the game changer? Ask us in September.
Tory may have to alter the pace of his campaign to take advantage of Ford’s absence. If Conservative voters see him as Ford without the circus, he can be poised to grab their vote. If left-leaning voters see him as socially progressive as well as fiscally responsible, he may be able to siphon votes from Chow — voters that polls show are already disposed to considering his candidacy.
But there are worrying trends.
For example, polling done by private firms that informs various campaigns shows that Tory’s slow start has hurt him. Even on files that he should dominate — the economy, looking after taxpayers’ money, managing city council — Tory trails Chow and Ford in support.
Voters just don’t know enough about his positions.
During this interregnum — when Ford no longer dominates the news cycle and the electorate is talking provincial politics — could Tory surge ahead?
It’s not the best of time, but it rarely is, when opportunity knocks.
