By activated i meant they became involved in politics, not in any "diabolical scheme" lol. That was your interpretation. And they were. This is why Trump went to all those Podcasters that appeal to the lost young blokes (and I mean that charitably, their audience had heaps of guy's feeling lost in modern society).
I think you're right though with what you said about Obama or another candidate who might have won.
As I said before Kamala was not my first choice. I agreed with James Carville who wrote about a tournament style series of debates in 4 locations in the usa with the winners debating at the convention. But alas...
Trump's margin was about the same as Biden's in the swing states at least, although Trump had more popular votes than Harris (Bidens popular vote edge was larger for sure).
I don't see many Trump voters being "activated" based on your description of these type of voters and what motivates them.
In 2008, Obama won by a relatively healthy margin and the absolute turnout was higher than 2016. In 2016, Trump fared better with the white vote. That suggests that some voters supported Obama and then later Trump. We all know 2020 was an unusual time with turnout increasing significantly for that election.
Many voters at the fringes change their vote from one election to the next based on general feelings on COVID, the economy, inflation as well as their perception of what the two major parties are prioritizing.
In 2024, I don't think Kamala was a strong enough candidate to turn around the poor situation she was pushed into at the end of July. I think any analysis that goes much beyond that are simply narratives that various groups want to believe.
As far as podcasters influencing the outcome last year, my opinion is that Trump was always ahead. Doing Rogan and other podcasts didn't put him over the top. The pollsters had the same problem they always had picking up Trump voters.
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