Putin admits he was naive when he came to power

oil&gas

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The west comprises no more than 25% of world's population.
Most of the rest of the world are not hostile towards Russia like
the west. Russia would eventually wean its dependence on Europe
for exports of its natural resources possibly within this decade.
Hopefully both sides will mind its own business in the impending
2nd cold war after the Ukraine conflict is over.
 

oil&gas

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It is unfortunate a statesman who reckons the futility of funding
a proxy war like Diane Sare would stand no chance of making
herself the third choice of a leader after Biden and Trump.

 

oil&gas

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Ukraine war set to turn in Putin’s favor in 2024, Czech president warns
BY NICOLAS CAMUT
Dec19, 2024

Czech President Petr Pavel expects "significant developments" in Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine next year — and these are not likely to be favorable to Kyiv, he said.

In an interview with Czech online news outlet Seznam Zprávy, Pavel was asked about his profile in POLITICO's annual ranking of the most powerful people in Europe, in which he was described as a "hawk when it comes to both Russia and China" who fully supports Ukraine as well as further NATO expansion.

Asked about his expectations on those issues for the upcoming year, Pavel said: "We have a lot ahead of us, because the development of the conflict in Ukraine shows that we are very likely to see some significant developments next year.

"And the indications so far are that it will not be in the best sense of the word, as we would like it to be," the president warned in an interview published Monday, asserting there would be "a new situation that we will have to deal with."

The comments from the Czech president — who is a former general, senior NATO leader and staunch Ukraine supporter — come at a challenging time for Kyiv.

By Ukrainian officials' own admission, Kyiv's counteroffensive to fight off Moscow's invasion has progressed more slowly than hoped for. Now, as winter approaches, positions on the battlefield are set to remain entrenched for the next few months.

In the meantime, Kyiv is scrambling to maintain support from its allies.

But in Europe, reinvigorated opposition from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his proximity to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is threatening to derail a crucial €50 billion aid package. In the U.S., plans to provide further aid for Kyiv have been stalled for weeks due to opposition from Republican lawmakers.

The U.S. is also headed for an uncertain presidential election next year, which will influence what happens in Ukraine, Pavel said in the interview.

"The anticipation of the elections will also bring about certain changes on the battlefield," the Czech president explained, because Putin has said he considers the U.S. as the only "partner for possible negotiations," which can only happen after the elections.

"On Vladimir Putin's side, there is an expectation that if Donald Trump succeeds, he would be able to get along with him regardless of what Ukraine or the rest of Europe thinks, and ... return Russia to the status of a key player," Pavel said.

 

oil&gas

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...........................................................................
Asked about his expectations on those issues for the upcoming year, Pavel said: "We have a lot ahead of us, because the development of the conflict in Ukraine shows that we are very likely to see some significant developments next year.

"And the indications so far are that it will not be in the best sense of the word, as we would like it to be," the president warned in an interview published Monday, asserting there would be "a new situation that we will have to deal with."
.........................................................
Based on James Rickards' forecast from Daily Reckoning this is how
the path of the war could turn out in 2024:
............................................
The Russians don’t expect the war to be over until 2025. That gives Biden time to deliver F-16 fighter jets and more money and to help Ukraine with its flying drones and sea-drones that can attack Russian vessels and the Kerch Bridge.

Russia will certainly match that kind of escalation by shooting down the F-16s, increasing its cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure so that the country will lack electricity and heat this winter.

My forecast is that Russia will not de-escalate because they’re winning. Biden will not de-escalate because he’s senile, is surrounded by warmongers and has no reverse gear.


I do not expect escalation to the point of nuclear weapons, but the probability of that outcome is uncomfortably high and should not be dismissed.
............................................................
 
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oil&gas

Well-known member
Apr 16, 2002
15,570
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Ghawar
Based on James Rickards' forecast from Daily Reckoning this is how
the path of the war could turn out to be in 2024:
............................................
The Russians don’t expect the war to be over until 2025. That gives Biden time to deliver F-16 fighter jets and more money and to help Ukraine with its flying drones and sea-drones that can attack Russian vessels and the Kerch Bridge.

Russia will certainly match that kind of escalation by shooting down the F-16s, increasing its cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure so that the country will lack electricity and heat this winter.

My forecast is that Russia will not de-escalate because they’re winning. Biden will not de-escalate because he’s senile, is surrounded by warmongers and has no reverse gear.


I do not expect escalation to the point of nuclear weapons, but the probability of that outcome is uncomfortably high and should not be dismissed.
............................................................

I hope Rickards's forecast would fail to materialize. I think
there is a good chance Republicans will succeed in blocking
funding to Ukraine and put an end to the war in 2024.
 

bver_hunter

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Nov 5, 2005
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I hope Rickards's forecast would fail to materialize. I think
there is a good chance Republicans will succeed in blocking
funding to Ukraine and put an end to the war in 2024.
So you want the Russians to win then? We knew that all along!!
 
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lomotil

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If Trump occupies the White House in 2024, Ukraine will find military aid and financing from American to be precariously reduced which may cause Ukraine to be open to some sort of self preserving negotiations. The European Union will not back stop the void left by this very possible America cutoff.
The American hegemony continues to wan and under an isolationist Trump regime, foreign concerns will be minimized.
Trump is grossly envious of the fact that he cannot be “Czar for life” like Putin and this malignant envy will enforce a further a very dangerous facism that Trump already holds over America.
 
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