Putin planning powerful superpower coalition

[Ranger68]

Who's ignoring China?
What you're saying is *precisely* what I've been saying - China is going to be a global superpower within a few decades. There is NOTHING that's going to stop their economic growth.
I'm not sure, at the same time, what's going to *save* the US economy.
"As well, China may not need anybody, in twenty years or so, to be able to mount a credible "threat" to the US monopoly on global superpowers."
If we're arguing over ten years or twenty years, I don't think there's really that much to discuss.

 

[assoholic]

..you are of course totally ignoreing the one time China and the US met in Battle, that was 50 years ago and it was a draw. The US wants no part of China in a land war in Asia.

 

[danmand]

I don't know where you get the 10 years from ....

A few weeks ago I had a conversation about China with Don Drummond. the 10 years was his assessment

 

[iam0234]

I don’t know the definition of an economic superpower. If consumption power qualifies (and if I’m not mistaken), China is now among the top 3 in the world of many goods including automobiles, heavy machinery, and telecommunication, household and food products. It is also one of the world’s largest consumers of resources. It consumes close to 25% of the world’s steel, ahead of the US, for example.

China’s demand for services has also grown by leaps and bounds. While I can’t remember the exact statistics, I believe the total $ amount transacted through credit cards in China these days is also as big as in the US. Despite a much lower average $ per transaction, its sheer volume of credit card use makes up for the shortfall.

This said, China’s economy has many hidden worries. The lack of a credible banking system is one, as rightly pointed out in earlier posts. Corruption and pollution are two others. The biggest and most imminent concern, however, is energy shortage. With some 30% of the world’s population now owning (or about to own) fridges, TV, computers, central air and heat and all those household “luxuries� privileged to the developed countries until only recently, in addition to its rapidly expanding manufacturing base, China’s appetite for power is huge. With more and more Chinese now owning cars as opposed to bicycles, its need for oil and gas is mind-boggling. Worse still, China has few natural resources to offer.

This energy issue will push China to form alliance with Russia, for example. It is out of necessity – survival – as opposed to doing it for the sake of challenging US super-power status. For exactly this reason, Canada can be a great economic partner of China since Canada does have many of the resources and technologies that China desperately needs. The energy issue, depending on how the super-powers of the world reacts, will also dictate China’s direction of partnership in the near to immediate future.

 

[Ranger68]

..you are of course totally ignoreing the one time China and the US met in Battle, that was 50 years ago and it was a draw. The US wants no part of China in a land war in Asia.

And this has WHAT to do with the fact that China is or is not a superpower?

The US wants no part of practically ANYONE in a land war.

 

[WoodPeckr]

Getting back to Putin's dream of a 'Grand New Superpower Coalition Alliance' here is an interesting article on Putin offering help to Brazil on a joint Space Venture.

(I just don't get the Russian/Brazilian connection either......)

Brazil, Russia sign pact on space cooperation

Mon Nov 22, 7:43 PM ET
Science - AFP

BRASILIA (AFP) - Brazil and Russia signed an agreement on space cooperation here that calls for development of a launch vehicle for Brazil, production of geostationary satellites and other projects.

The document signed by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Russian President Vladimir Putin (news - web sites) evokes "development of a modernized version" of Brazil's satellite launch rocket known as the VLS-1 as well as development of new models.

It also calls for joint work on development of geostationary satellites to be used for communication and navigation and for cooperation on improving the infrastructure at Brazil's Alcantara launch facility.

While the memorandum of understanding spelled out no timetable, Lula said it gave Brazil "renewed optimism and determination" to pursue its national plans for launching commercial satellites from the Alcantara site.

The Alcantara facility is located near the equator, which makes satellite launches considerably less costly, and Brazil has made clear its intention to become a viable space power.

Putin said Russia looked forward to a long-term "technological alliance" with Brazil that would include cooperation in the use of new technologies in space and other areas including aviation and the military sector.

Link:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20041123/sc_afp/brazil_russia_space_041123004357

 

[Ranger68]

What makes you think China doesn't have a strong, and growing, middle class?

 

[Ranger68]

According to *several* reports I've read recently, China's middle class is growing fast.
Do you have a link to those UN stats?

 

[WoodPeckr]

The United States did not spring forth, with a fully formed middle class, and some would argue that the US middle class is shrinking. A large, strong middle class is hardly a percursor to having an economy. I would argue that having a middle class is a RESULT of a liberal economic mixed model economy.

That US middle class hit its peak following WWII and flourished due to a liberal economic mixed model economy, the G.I. Bill and a strong Union movement which did much to level the playing field for the worker. This was the 'American Dream' come true. I also agree the policies of Reagan especially his tax-cut and anti-union tactics started the decline of the middle class. Present Bush policy carries on this attack on the middle class as he redistributes wealth away from the middle and to the wealthy. If this trend continues the US will become like most of the world where there are only the Rich and Poor. There is much evidence showing how the general standard of living in the USA is dropping rather than getting better.

 

[Ranger68]

China has a strong, growing middle-class. No need to argue.

 

[Peeping Tom]

Indeed. One has only to think about the brainfart known as the cultural revolution.

Chinese history has known nothing but oriental despotism. Every now and then the peasants get uppity and its time to kill a few million, which fucks up agriculture, resulting in a famine killing a few million more. Just watch when they reach the nationalism stage. That is going to be ugly.

On a historical note - everytime China starts to pull itself up, they do something dumb, or events manage to push them backwards, I think the jury is still out on the potential success of this experiment, not to mention the potential for a radical group to gain absolute power and put an end to the hearesy of a capitalistic communist society. Over and over again history has shown that an economy run by a Central power is always doomed to failure.

 

[Ranger68]

I asked for a link to these UN statistics.
You've provided none, just more rhetoric.
How sad.
Your statement that "they do something dumb" indicates where you stand.

China has a 14% growth rate, and has been a capitalist country for about twenty years. These two facts are practically *irreconcilable* without conceding a large and growing middle class.

Anyway, it's all nonsense to deny the fact that China is the world's emerging superpower. The Project for a New American Century, wrote their "position paper" a few years back, and was comprised of many of those in power with Bush right now (Wolfowitz, Cheney, Libby, Rumsfeld, Perle, Bolton). They advocated "reorientation of America's political and military strategy from the old enemy, Russia, to the emerging strategic rival, China". A principal purpose of their proposed massive military buildup would be "to cope with the rise of China to great-power status".

Hey, if you don't believe me, you might believe them.

 

[Ranger68]

Well, it's not just ME dreaming then, it's guys like Gwynne Dyer, along with practically the ENTIRE Bush administration.

Human rights have little to do with economic growth. Perhaps this is unfortunate, but there it is. China is practically a fully capitalist society.

China is GOING to be an economic and military super-power. This is not a premature statement. To say that they are *now* is probably premature, but I've never advocated this statement.

 

[onthebottom]

Nice list of basket case large countries. Russia has an economy the size of Belgium, China is a third world country with a banking disaster, Brazil is one of the largest indebted nations and India is well, India.

The EU could balance US power if the EU wasn't too cheap or too fragmented to pull it off - same size economy, same number of people, good level of technology.

OTB

 

[Ranger68]

World opinion is practically unanimous that China is going to be the world's next superpower.
Anyone disagree?

 

[onthebottom]

World opinion is practically unanimous that China is going to be the world's next superpower.
Anyone disagree?

I don't disagree, the hard question is when - could be another 50 years before they get their sh*t together.

OTB

 

[Ranger68]

Could be. Ten to fifty years. Hard to say.

 

[langeweile]

Nice list of basket case large countries. Russia has an economy the size of Belgium, China is a third world country with a banking disaster, Brazil is one of the largest indebted nations and India is well, India.

The EU could balance US power if the EU wasn't too cheap or too fragmented to pull it off - same size economy, same number of people, good level of technology.

GJM

Not sure if I agree on the EU thing.
Taxation levels in the key member staates are higher than in Canada. One of the effects is that doing buisness there has become very expensive. Last quarter GDP for France and Germany was 0.1%!!!
There is a serious issue of declining population, to that point where the goverment contemplates incentives for having babies.(maybe some Terbites wanna volunteer)

The french/german vision of a federalist approach has met heavy resistance from "new europe". A centralised socialist style european goverment doesn't sound too sexy to me.
Centralized market economies are usually doomed to fail.

 

[Ranger68]

"The five biggest powers of 2040 will be China, the United States, India, Russia, and Brazil - probably in that order."
- Gwynne Dyer, Future Tense

 

[onthebottom]

"The five biggest powers of 2040 will be China, the United States, India, Russia, and Brazil - probably in that order."
- Gwynne Dyer, Future Tense

"Kerry by 10 % - bbking"

Predictions are fragile things.

How will India change in the next 36 years to be the 3rd most powerful nation?

Is this power economic - look at per capita GDP and tell me a story.

Is this power military - tell me how these countries PROJECT their power.

Is this power innovation - tell me about new technologies, processes and patents in these countries.

Is this power sustainable - let's talk about transparency, justice and intellectual capital.

What are the literacy rates in these countries? How sustainable are their economies, food production, and education systems.

Or do you think a billion poor illiterate people are power?

OTB