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james t kirk

Well-known member
Aug 17, 2001
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The risk is per-event.

If your risk of coming out "disease free" is 95%, then after 3 encounters, your chances are (0.95)^3 = 86%. After 10 encounters, 60% is the chance of being disease free.
I read all of your posts. You definitely seem to be in the know about the medical end.

However, your math above is incorrect.

Your odds remain the same, they are not increasing as you have shown.

For example, if you had a bag of 100 marbles of which 99 were black and 1 was white. You reach into the bag blindly to find the one white marble. Your odds are 1 in 100 or 1%. You pull out 1 marble, it's black. Now you toss that marble back into the bag and repeat the process. Your odds of pulling out the white marble remain 1 in 100 or 1%. Your odds do not increase with each attempt. By your math, if one plays the 649 your odds of winning improve with each time you play. They do not. They remain the same.
 

mrsCALoki

Banned
Jul 27, 2011
4,936
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I read all of your posts. You definitely seem to be in the know about the medical end.

However, your math above is incorrect.

Your odds remain the same, they are not increasing as you have shown.

For example, if you had a bag of 100 marbles of which 99 were black and 1 was white. You reach into the bag blindly to find the one white marble. Your odds are 1 in 100 or 1%. You pull out 1 marble, it's black. Now you toss that marble back into the bag and repeat the process. Your odds of pulling out the white marble remain 1 in 100 or 1%. Your odds do not increase with each attempt. By your math, if one plays the 649 your odds of winning improve with each time you play. They do not. They remain the same.
No. When you first start to learn about stats they teach you something similar to what you paraphrase. The actual accurate statement is that "if you are using a 'fair' coin and just had 8 heads in a row your next toss has 50/50 probability of being a head". If you continue learning about statistics you discover that the odds of having 8 head in a row is defined by the equation he used. If you continue studying stats at the Mater level you discover that the concept 'fair' is a fabrication to make it easier for beginners to understand the concepts.
 

mrsCALoki

Banned
Jul 27, 2011
4,936
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those heterosexual women in those figures are basically all IV drug users. also, many women from high risk areas in africa and other high risk areas who immigrate to north america make up some of those heterosexual women as well. like I said fuck hundreds of women bareback who live low risk lifestyles, and you dont need an hiv test period. every person ive seen who has HIV, they look the part, they look high risk.....they don't look like your average soccer mom.
I like the way you ignore reality and make such silly statements. You remind me of my 13 year old nephew. You might want to try and remember how women get infected "New HIV infections among women are primarily attributed to heterosexual contact (84% in 2010) or injection drug e how women get infected "New HIV infections among women are primarily attributed to heterosexual contact (84% in 2010) or injection drug use (16% in 2010). CDC statistic sheets

Your statement 'all IV drug users' is juvenile or possibly at best naive. What you want to believe is mildly interesting but facts are facts.

How the fuck do you know what HIV + people look like? I doubt the soccer mom who has HIV will tell you. If you worked in a middle class medical facility that did testing you would at least have some knowledge about what people look like when they first test positive.

Oh and guess what, many sex trade workers have sex with blacks. And the CDC flags blacks as a very high risk groups. American blacks. Not "New' WOMEN FROM NORTH AFRICA. A fact is a fact, but claiming women who immigrated from North Africa are a major factor is just sexist and racist.

:frusty:.
 
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mrsCALoki

Banned
Jul 27, 2011
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WOW you didn't even read my post and sure wrote a lot that graphically looks like it is a reply to what I said, but in reality is completely irrelevant.

Yes there are lots of people with HIV, but they are mostly homosexuals and injection drug users. Really. There are indeed some HIV positive heterosexuals, but many, many fewer. The odds that your hetrosexual partner has HIV are very low, unless your partner is also an injection drug user, or a bisexual male.

Yes, women can get infected from hetrosexual contact--but it is almost always unprotected anal or vaginal sex, whereas we were talking about blowjobs.

So maybe re-read my post, that you quoted, and reply again, having read it.
I am so sorry fuji, did I not break it down in tiny enough bites for you? Let me try again.

And lets remember the basic question did not focus on HIV, nor did it even focus on STIs that could not be cured. It was a simple statement. "BBBJ = 5 to 6% chance of being infected" and the basic response from some people who seem to have at least a little medical training is "Sounds about right". Those who want to have BBBJs insist it is a very minute chance. [/QUOTE]

Saliva is fairly effective at neutralizing the HIV virus which is why all forms of oral transmission have very low risks.
Well yes and no. Go read the studies and not just the headlines. The human mouth is one of the dirtiest biologically active place imaginable, pathogens abound. SOME studies show that SOME pathogens are inhibited by saliva IF the pathogen is exposed to saliva for a long period of time (hours)Saliva is not an antiviral drug. . Further the throat is not the mouth when it comes to saliva. Once your little urethra opening is in the throat it is exposed to all kinds of nasty pathogens. That is why the risk of DATY is so low for many diseases, No throat contact is infinity safer. Read any of the hundreds of papers on gono transmission to men during oral sex. Most apply to any disease that is fond of mucous membranes, the mechanism applies to many diseases and research on HIV is ongoing.

So now let's bring this back to the thread topic and introduce a little reality.

Here is the scenario: A female escort provides a blow job to a male client and then has protected vaginal sex. The risks to both parties of contracting HIV here are negligible.
And lets remember the basic question did not focus on HIV, nor did it even focus on STIs that could not be cured. It was a simple statement. "BBBJ = 5 to 6% chance of being infected" and the basic response from some people who seem to have at least a little medical training is "Sounds about right". Those who want to have BBBJs insist it is a very minute chance.
There are several "for life" STIs there, and a few fatal ones. The question was about total risk of infection. Just to get back to reality ;)

First, you are dealing with two individuals who are both highly unlikely to be infected AND serum positive.
You do realise that is a mildly stupid statement? It is impossible to be serum positive unless you are infected. Why do you say silly things?

Even just ignoring the transmission rates, the rates of infection in these populations are so low that the risks are small to begin with.
As I quoted the odds of meeting an HIV + person is about 1/300. (CDC DATA FACT SHEETS)



the only rate that matters are those who aren't receiving treatment for HIV, which lowers it even further from just the rate of frequency in the population.
do you have any peer reviewed papers that support this ?
You do know that the clowns that were charged with assault for having sex with women and not telling them they had HIV were all diagnosed and receiving treatment? The courts found them guilty because of the risk to the women. None of the defence lawyers tried to use your idea as a defence. Guess why?

Your opinion that someone receiving treatment has no risk of infecting others is interesting, not universally true, certainly not proven in research papers but interesting.

Second, the guy has almost no risk here. HIV may transmit to someone who gets a load of cum in their mouth, but it doesn't go the other direction easily--the rates are low even for vaginal sex, and for oral sex, where saliva has already inactivated most of the virus present, the odds are just incredibly low unless the woman is bleeding profusely from her gums or something.
That is just plain silly. Ever notice a little red tinge when you spit after brushing your teeth? That is more than enough all by itself to keep you infectious for blood born pathogens for a long time Eventually saliva and clotting will lower the concentration, but we are talking hours. hardly "bleeding profusely" as you like to imagine. Stop living in the last century. True this is a life style disease, but it is no longer a homosexual / IV drug user problem.

Third, the transmission rate to the woman is low,
Again untrue ideas all tagged together so they sound logical. CDC published data sheet says 1/5 (approximately) of HIV infected people iare non drug using heterosexual woman in US. In Africa the numbers are even more obvious.

You are more likely to contract influenza in this scenario, and then die from it, than you are likely to contract HIV.
On the bright side I refuse to believe I can contract influenza from a washed penis. :) As long as it is nothing to sneeze at (Joke)
Wrong end for influenza.

And finally let's just end on a common sense note: If this was in fact a major transmission vector for HIV then a whole hell of a lot of hetrosexual people would be infected,
Dahhh ya there are.

WOW you must be informed by some magical means.
Translation: "Wow this guy did not study Biology at University, or statistics, or critical thinking, and never wrote a university level thesis that was subject to peer review. "

do you have any peer reviewed papers that support this one way hypothesis?
Summary:

Pretty much everyone says there were about 1,148,200 people living with HIV in US. With a population of 308,745,538 that means 1/300 :)
24% of the people with HIV are women (US 2009 -CDC Statistic fact sheets)
r
"New HIV infections among women are primarily attributed to heterosexual contact (84% in 2010) or injection drug
use (16% in 2010). CDC statistic sheets.
The only published paper I know of says oral transmission rates are 1/7th the odds of genital / anal contact. That assumes BB in all 3 cases. :)
Saliva does not support most pathogens (cavities do not live in saliva, but the exist in the mouth, go figure it out), but is far from a universal antiviral / antibacterial agent. If you think it is go DFK a dog.

The original question.... is it true that the odds are 5-6 % per BBBJ of catching a STI. Well if you do not already have it, yes it is a reasonable estimate.

:)
 

bobistheowl

New member
Jul 12, 2003
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If one in 300 Americans are HIV+, and 24% of the HIV positive Americans are women, and the odds of contracting HIV from a BBBJ are 5-6%, then the odds for acquiring HIV from a randomly chosen American woman through one BBBJ would be 22, 727 to 1 against:

.24 * .055
____________

300
 

mrsCALoki

Banned
Jul 27, 2011
4,936
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If one in 300 Americans are HIV+, and 24% of the HIV positive Americans are women, and the odds of contracting HIV from a BBBJ are 5-6%, then the odds for acquiring HIV from any American woman through one BBBJ would be 22, 727 to 1 against:

.24 * .055
____________

300
No one ever said "the odds of contracting HIV from a BBBJ are 5-6%". that is the odds of contacting a STI from a BBBJ.

At a simple level, the odds of contacting aids is low. The odds of contacting aids from a BBBJ are about 1/7 the odds of contacting it from BBAnal.

About 50,000 people in US test positive for HIV every year. So 50,000 / 300,000,000 is darn low. 1 chance in 6,000 ?

Factoring drug users, etc, One could say you have 1 chance in 10,000 of Contacting hiv /year. Great odds.

Down side, HIV is tied to the number of sex partners. And when you have sex with an escort you are having sex with every client she ever saw (not to mention a few boy / girl friends).

Average number of sex partners in a life time are reported to be well below 10. In many studies below 5. I wonder how many sex partner the average Terb guy has had? Not to mention how many have SPs had. The belief that the odds of having a sexually transmitted disease doubles for every 5 partners is fairly common with researchers. So lets assume 10 partners to make it easier. So 10 partners double the odds, 20 partners (2 x 2) quadruple it, 30 (2^3=8 times) 30 partners (2^4 = 16), 40 (2^5 = 32) 50 (2^6 = 64), 60 for 128, 70 for 256, 80 for 512, and 90 for 1024. 1024 times. clients 90 represents less than 2 new clients a week.

Oh my! Odds are stacking up against an SP being a 'very low risk" Exponential growth is a bitch!

Those odds keep looking worse and worse.


Kinsey tells us that less than half the single men out there have vaginal sex more than once a year. They sort of skew the odds unless you are also only doing it once a year :)

http://www.kinseyinstitute.org/resources/FAQ.html


So what does it boil down to?

Well being over simplistic, and accurate to an order of magnitude, the risk of HIV for someone hobbying with an average well reviewed SP who has been working for more than a year is comparable to crossing a 4 lane highway on foot during a typical traffic day. Not a death sentence, or even a guarantee you will be injured; but it is risky. Just watch for cars, always wear a bright coloured coat, and never ever slip :)

Not wearing a cover is more like doing it on a rainy night LOL

Ok I might be exaggerating. That is a pessimistic comparison. But crossing young street in the middle of the block, would be an optimistic one.
 
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