The Covid Cycle

[Rako3]

Numbers skyrocket. People change their behavior. Numbers come down. People say "oh, it's not a big deal" and stop taking precautions. Numbers then skyrocket. People freak out, change their behavior. Numbers come down. People say "oh, it's not a big deal" and stop taking precautions.

Don't you kind of wish either people would stick with the plan and actually defeat the disease, or just give up and everyone gets it and millions die and we can move on? (I vote for the first, but others like TeeJay may vote for the second. Either way, we'd be off the roller coaster.)

 

[Beagle_]

Numbers skyrocket. People change their behavior. Numbers come down. People say "oh, it's not a big deal" and stop taking precautions. Numbers then skyrocket. People freak out, change their behavior. Numbers come down. People say "oh, it's not a big deal" and stop taking precautions.

Don't you kind of wish either people would stick with the plan and actually defeat the disease, or just give up and everyone gets it and millions die and we can move on? (I vote for the first, but others like TeeJay may vote for the second. Either way, we'd be off the roller coaster.)

Well said.

I would be impressed if the first route obtained successful results in reality.

I called this after the first cycle failed.

In reality is it too late for lockdowns? I think the current situation is survival, those who qualify will continue.

 

[Valcazar]

In reality is it too late for lockdowns? I think the current situation is survival, those who qualify will continue.

In the US, absolutely. Far too much general circulation for full lockdowns to really be all that effective, I think. In Canada maybe they would work. But neither country has the will to actually enforce one at the level required, and certainly not after a year of this already.

 

[Beagle_]

In the US, absolutely. Far too much general circulation for full lockdowns to really be all that effective, I think. In Canada maybe they would work. But neither country has the will to actually enforce one at the level required, and certainly not after a year of this already.

Very true, it was a joke right from the get-go before Christmas. Hard lesions were learnt but that life. No one felt that finger because they too busy being politically correct.

Your right Lock downs are going to be a lot harder now, i believe maybe even unrealistic. Nothing was handled properly but definitely a tough situation.

 

[Valcazar]

Nothing was handled properly but definitely a tough situation.

It's really hard to get right, too.
Any epidemiologist will tell you that if you do it right, everyone will say you overreacted. Because it is exponential, if you lock down at 15 cases and crush it everyone will think you are insane for having locked down at 15 cases. But once it is too far into the community and exists as a reservoir you can never really crush it by locking down.
One of the reasons the South Asian countries handled it better overall was just that they had been through it recently with other diseases and so the "Go big, go hard" mentality was a somewhat easier sell there. (It isn't everything, but it was involved.)
Maybe we will be better with the next one, but it is hard to say.

 

[squeezer]

Your right Lock downs are going to be a lot harder now, i believe maybe even unrealistic. Nothing was handled properly but definitely a tough situation.

An emergency shut down order has been given for Simcoe and Thunder Bay starting tomorrow. This proves they will not hesitate to issue lockdown orders when needed. If people would follow the rules with mask-wearing , social distancing and washing of hands, perhaps lockdowns would not be needed.

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/...health-unit-and-simcoe-muskoka-district-healt

 

[Beagle_]

An emergency shut down order has been given for Simcoe and Thunder Bay starting tomorrow. This proves they will not hesitate to issue lockdown orders when needed. If people would follow the rules with mask-wearing , social distancing and washing of hands, perhaps lockdowns would not be needed.

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/...health-unit-and-simcoe-muskoka-district-healt

What else is new?

 

[Beagle_]

It's really hard to get right, too.
Any epidemiologist will tell you that if you do it right, everyone will say you overreacted. Because it is exponential, if you lock down at 15 cases and crush it everyone will think you are insane for having locked down at 15 cases. But once it is too far into the community and exists as a reservoir you can never really crush it by locking down.
One of the reasons the South Asian countries handled it better overall was just that they had been through it recently with other diseases and so the "Go big, go hard" mentality was a somewhat easier sell there. (It isn't everything, but it was involved.)
Maybe we will be better with the next one, but it is hard to say.

Fuck hard knocks. That's was well earned.

Some times New Zealand crosses my mind too, the name has a new meaning to me too lol.

 

[Valcazar]

An emergency shut down order has been given for Simcoe and Thunder Bay starting tomorrow. This proves they will not hesitate to issue lockdown orders when needed. If people would follow the rules with mask-wearing , social distancing and washing of hands, perhaps lockdowns would not be needed.

When numbers have gone down enough, targeted short lockdowns on an area with an outbreak will be effective. I just don't know if we are there yet.

 

[K Douglas]

Numbers skyrocket. People change their behavior. Numbers come down. People say "oh, it's not a big deal" and stop taking precautions. Numbers then skyrocket. People freak out, change their behavior. Numbers come down. People say "oh, it's not a big deal" and stop taking precautions.

Don't you kind of wish either people would stick with the plan and actually defeat the disease, or just give up and everyone gets it and millions die and we can move on? (I vote for the first, but others like TeeJay may vote for the second. Either way, we'd be off the roller coaster.)

That's not how things have transpired. Perhaps you'd like to take another look at a graph of covid19 case progression? The vast majority of folks have not changed their behavior, even when restrictions were lifted.

 

[K Douglas]

An emergency shut down order has been given for Simcoe and Thunder Bay starting tomorrow. This proves they will not hesitate to issue lockdown orders when needed. If people would follow the rules with mask-wearing , social distancing and washing of hands, perhaps lockdowns would not be needed.

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/...health-unit-and-simcoe-muskoka-district-healt

People are following the rules what makes you say otherwise?

 

[basketcase]

Numbers skyrocket. People change their behavior. Numbers come down. People say "oh, it's not a big deal" and stop taking precautions. Numbers then skyrocket. People freak out, change their behavior. Numbers come down. People say "oh, it's not a big deal" and stop taking precautions.

Don't you kind of wish either people would stick with the plan and actually defeat the disease, or just give up and everyone gets it and millions die and we can move on? (I vote for the first, but others like TeeJay may vote for the second. Either way, we'd be off the roller coaster.)

Add in politicians who want to make sure they get re-elected and are more responsive to the swaying public opinion and corporate pressures than they are to medical advice.

To be effective the lockdowns should have been implemented sometime around November when a month of suffering would have gotten the numbers down to the low 100's instead of our new baseline of 1000.

 

[basketcase]

It's really hard to get right, too.
Any epidemiologist will tell you that if you do it right, everyone will say you overreacted. Because it is exponential, if you lock down at 15 cases and crush it everyone will think you are insane for having locked down at 15 cases. But once it is too far into the community and exists as a reservoir you can never really crush it by locking down.
One of the reasons the South Asian countries handled it better overall was just that they had been through it recently with other diseases and so the "Go big, go hard" mentality was a somewhat easier sell there. (It isn't everything, but it was involved.)
Maybe we will be better with the next one, but it is hard to say.

Not too long ago someone posted making fun of Australia for a lockdown over a few cases not realizing that their rapid lockdowns were the reason for so few cases.

 

[basketcase]

People are following the rules what makes you say otherwise?

It's anecdotal but my observations of people have shown there is a significant factor of fatigue where people start expanding their circles.

 

[glamphotographer]

Covididiots keep bringing us into lockdowns. I think they want the lockdowns to happen so they can get attention by protesting and being Karens on social media.

 

[TeeJay]

Median age of those who die are 84
90%+ have 2 or more other serious illnesses at time of death
Symptoms of covid are identical to common flu

By this point I would think most of you would stop drinking the Kool Aid

 

[squeezer]

Median age of those who die are 84
90%+ have 2 or more other serious illnesses at time of death
Symptoms of covid are identical to common flu

By this point I would think most of you would stop drinking the Kool Aid

I think drinking and drugs must be your problem.

 

[Beagle_]

When numbers have gone down enough, targeted short lockdowns on an area with an outbreak will be effective. I just don't know if we are there yet.

Travel will repeat the cycle, how do we break this?

 

[TeeJay]

Travel will repeat the cycle, how do we break this?

By waking up, taking your mask off, and stop living in fear of something that cant effect you

 

[squeezer]

By waking up, taking your mask off, and stop living in fear of something that cant effect you

Wow, first we find out you voted for Andrea Horwath and now we learn you slept with your mask on!