The Nordic Model
- Thread starter Insidious Von
- Start date
The advantage Sweden may have now is more people (than Norway & Denmark) infected & recovered with immunity. So when Denmark & Norway open up & let their imprisoned at home healthy people out, they will be exposed to the virus & many more may become sick & die than in Sweden. So while Sweden is having more deaths now, the other 2 countries will probably have more deaths later & may catch up to Sweden in number of deaths.
You keep saying "Sweden decided to take the brunt of an inevitable hit early, while not overwhelming their health system."
There is evidence that suggests keeping business as usual will have dire affects down the road. Matter of fact there is evidence that tells us without closing of non essential businesses the number of cases as well as deaths will keep on growing until the point that the healthcare system will be overburdened with cases just like what happened in Italy and at that point it will exponentially grow.
So your opinion on this is once again opposite of the facts.
Again the most important thing about the virus is asymptomatic carriers and with business as usuall there is no curbing asymptomatic carriers.
Unfortunately you irrational people keep comparing this to other things rather than using the facts and numbers in front of you in regards to the virus to come to a educated conclusion.
This is very true, also one of the reasons why comparing nordic countries together is a great comparison as their physical, social and healthcare structures are very similar to one another. Further Denmark, Norway and Sweden all saw the spread of the Coronavirus within days of one another.
If you ignore the facts and data and use opinions and feelings to come to a conclusion your conclusions are non factual and usually end up false. But when you use facts and data you can come to an educated conclusion where it would more than likely be true.
Everything that is happening in Sweden was forseen matter of fact I told you numerous times that their confirmed cases, new deaths as well as death rate will keep on rising but unfortunately you like your feelings more than the data that is in front of you.
Nobody argues against current statistics. The argument is how to interpret it. If "open" economy will result in overflowing the health system (as was in Italy), it is one thing. But Itally happened fast, people did not practice any precautions. In Sweden it is different. Elderly stay at home (and not live with their children as in Italy), people wear masks, wash hands. These simple measures are enough not to overburden their health system and get over the peak fast without too much of total deaths. Only in dense population areas (city centre) lock down is really needed. In suburbs or smaller cities individual precaution measures are sufficient. And another thing: never look at past data to predict future.
In Sweden people are asked to wear masks not enforced. Having businesses open such as bars, restaurants, pubs, resorts, schools, cafes is not practicing proper precautions. I highly doubt people would wear masks in such businesses like restaurants, pubs, resorts, cafes and bars. And to assume that is 90% of what is needed to fight the Coronavirus is obliviousness to the facts and data.
The healthcare system in Sweden is close to being overburdened unlike what you claim and their government has already announced that they might be forced to take drastic isolation measures to combat the Coronavirus so again it's non factual when you say those measures are enough to not overburden the healthcare system.
Facts and data are the only thing that needs to be used to come to an educated conclusion to what the proper way to fight the Coronavirus should be not unfounded opinions and non factual feelings.
Here are the important facts and data Sweden, Denmark and Norway were all at the same point within days of one another. Sweden had 1 confirmed case on February 25th and February 27th the first case was in Denmark and Norway.
In comparison almost a month later on March 23rd and as of today April 23rd here is the data.
March 23
-----------------------Confirmed Cases------------------Total Deaths---------------------------------Death Rate----
Sweden-------------2046---------------------------------27----------------------------------------------1.3%
Denmark------------1460---------------------------------24---------------------------------------------1.6%
Norway--------------2625---------------------------------10---------------------------------------------0.4%
April 23
-----------------------Confirmed Cases-------------------Total Deaths---------------------------------Death Rate----
Sweden-------------16755--------------------------------2021-------------------------------------------12.1%
Denmark------------8073---------------------------------394---------------------------------------------4.9%
Norway-------------7361----------------------------------193---------------------------------------------2.6%
Clearly you fail to understand the importance of seeing the first case within days of one another, being fairly at the same point within a month of seeing the original case and then having an exponentially larger difference than the two countries without having overburdened the healthcare system yet.
The more I think about it, the more it is clear that it is pointless to even compare one country to another as their cultures, demographics, health care systems, elderly care infrastructure, and many other variables are just too diverse.
Not all shutdowns are equal.
Germany shut down and I think it is highly unlikely that they will ever close the gap to Sweden.
Some other countries like Italy did shut down and they are already worse than Sweden before even beginning to end the shutdown.
Of course Sweden`s numbers would be better at this moment had they shut down but nobody knows how much better or if they would be better or worse in the long run.
The Swedes are not protesting.
Who the fuck are we to criticize them?
Plus a running economy or collapsing economy is a huge deal, as we are seeing and will continue to see for a long time.
The main purpose of the shutdown was to err on the side of caution and make sure the health system did not get overwhelmed.
It is far from a certainty that this would have happened without a shutdown.
Another highly relevant reality is that the consensus for a vaccine is at least 18 months out.
We could be into a 3rd wave by then and there is no way we can shut down like this again for this virus.
If a vaccine was a matter of a few months, then of course the shutdown would be best way to go.
Hindsight will be 20/20 but nobody has a perfect crystal ball right now, not even TERB`s eminent epidemiologists.
Not all shutdowns are equal.
Germany shut down and I think it is highly unlikely that they will ever close the gap to Sweden.
Some other countries like Italy did shut down and they are already worse than Sweden before even beginning to end the shutdown.
Of course Sweden`s numbers would be better at this moment had they shut down but nobody knows how much better or if they would be better or worse in the long run.
The Swedes are not protesting.
Who the fuck are we to criticize them?
Plus a running economy or collapsing economy is a huge deal, as we are seeing and will continue to see for a long time.
The main purpose of the shutdown was to err on the side of caution and make sure the health system did not get overwhelmed.
It is far from a certainty that this would have happened without a shutdown.
Another highly relevant reality is that the consensus for a vaccine is at least 18 months out.
We could be into a 3rd wave by then and there is no way we can shut down like this again for this virus.
If a vaccine was a matter of a few months, then of course the shutdown would be best way to go.
Hindsight will be 20/20 but nobody has a perfect crystal ball right now, not even TERB`s eminent epidemiologists.
Comparing countries such as Sweden to the likes of Norway or Denmark or finland is a very fair comparison as they share extremely similar demographics, geographical, health care, and societal structure.
Germany has poured so much resources and they are so tactically sound in everything they do that it will be next to impossible for them to see anything similar to the levels that Sweden is experiencing.
Italy's issue was they didn't believe the facts and data revolving the Coronavirus and they waited too long to shut down non essential businesses, by that point it was already too late, another problem Italy faced was that the public did not practice social distancing which was what the government told them to do and the government had issued 53 000 summons I believe in the first week of the shutdown to people for defying orders. Unfortunately right now Sweden is in a very similar situation and at a point that even if they shut down non essential businesses they might still overburden their healthcare system. Although I don't think the Swedes will defy what their government tells them to do.
Again the virus is on a 14 day lag/timeline so what Sweden is experiencing today is due to the actions or inactions they took, and the data they experienced 14 days ago.
You know,, we are talking about the curve, right. each side of it looks like exponent (first going up, then going down). Sweden has steeper curve in both directions and a much sooner pick then everybody else. Also, they will have a single peak while we have 2 or 3 (unless we will stay closed forever). The only important parameter in saying whether Sweden approach is better of worse is by how much they health system will be burdened in the short-run. If they survive another month without significant shortage of hospital beds, than their approach will prove its superiority. And Swedes are not Italians or Canadians: they are law-abiding and rational, so, no enforcement is necessary - most of people will follow recommendations.
:encouragement:
:yo:
There is so little known about this new virus. How do we know it won't just fade away & all but disappear in a few weeks or months. The SARS coronavirus did not last that long, relative to the flu, & it suddenly disappeared, never to be seen again:
"Where Has SARS Gone? The Strange Case of the Disappearing Coronavirus by Robert Peckham"
https://bioethics.georgetown.edu/201...obert-peckham/
Italy has a very aged population which is especially at risk to dying from this virus.
There was also a hug a Chinese thing going on to oppose racism.
With many Chinese workers returning to Italy from Chinese New Year's celebrations in Wuhan, the original hotspot of the virus, you can imagine that hugging them was not a good idea.
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1155687
Sweden had an advantage from geographical isolation, but their lackadaisical created hotspots similar to what NYS experienced in late February. Meanwhile American Dixie is being hit hard just as the Governor of Georgia wants to re-open the state for business. That could be a recipe for disaster.
The WHO played along with Mao Princeling propaganda, they are both coming under increasing fire.
The WHO played along with Mao Princeling propaganda, they are both coming under increasing fire.
You are right, we don`t know.
That`s why I often use words like, I think, it might, it could, it may, it`s possible, perhaps, time will tell, etc....
Unlike the know-it-all TERB epidemiologists who think that their opinions are facts.
Nobody is as smart as they think they are. :der:
We should be asking scientists in the Wuhan lab. They probably know a whole lot about it since they created it.
Thanks DS99. I like to look up and research about what I read here on TERB (helps pass the time) and haven't found much current/real time data about Sweden's experience this past week/month.
:yo:
:encouragement:
An opinion you may find interesting:
https://perb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...ction-50-to-85-Times-More-Common-Than-Thought
Once again this is solely your opinion and non factual.
Facts are:
Sweden has not had a steeper curve on the way up than every other country.
It's rather an extreme non factual assumption on your part to assume that Sweden on the way down will have a signifacantly steeper curve than every other country, meanwhile the measures or non measures to put it in correct terms they have point to the exact opposite.
It's also another rather extreme non factual assumption on your part that Sweden will have one peak while we and others will have 2 or 3. Meanwhile the evidence/facts/data suggests that countries with strict tracing measures prior to opening businesses back up combined with healthcare measures in place with substantially curb the future outbreaks of the Coronavirus.
Farr's law is the new talking point right now, so expect to hear the thing about symmetric curves a lot.
