The Russian Oligarchs

jcpro

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Jan 31, 2014
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Looks like Putin is sending in a massive convoy to Kyiv today, likely he wants to try to end it quick and take out the comic who kept making fun of him.
He no longer can end it quickly, even if he can take Kiev. Ukraine is a very large country with mobilized population and the wide international support. The conflict will go on. The events have overtaken Putin's plan. And that's the very scary part. A "palace coup" followed by an immediate execution is the most desirable outcome right now. The sooner the better.
 

danmand

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Nov 28, 2003
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He no longer can end it quickly, even if he can take Kiev. Ukraine is a very large country with mobilized population and the wide international support. The conflict will go on. The events have overtaken Putin's plan. And that's the very scary part. A "palace coup" followed by an immediate execution is the most desirable outcome right now. The sooner the better.
I wonder what you think his plan was.

I think he wanted to circle Kiev, and then have a negotiation to avoid further fighting that would give Russia:
1. Neutral Ukraine
2. Crimea to Russia
3. Donbass some kind of independence

That plan has gone out the window, it seems.

Plan B which is to take all of Ukraine, and occupy it, will surely fail. If the Russian military is embarrassed, I think his days are going to be fewer.
 
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jcpro

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I wonder what you think his plan was.

I think he wanted to circle Kiev, and then have a negotiation to avoid further fighting that would give Russia:
1. Neutral Ukraine
2. Crimea to Russia
3. Donbass some kind of independence

That plan has gone out the window, it seems.

Plan B which is to take all of Ukraine, and occupy it, will surely fail. If the Russian military is embarrassed, I think his days are going to be fewer.
He's long term plan is the whole of Ukraine back in the fold. He has never made a secret about it. This time around he is after Eastern Ukraine, judging by the three pronged invasion, up to the Dnieper River and a puppet government in Kiev to make it nice, legal and "democratic".
 
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danmand

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He's long term plan is the whole of Ukraine back in the fold. He has never made a secret about it. This time around he is after Eastern Ukraine, judging by the three pronged invasion, up to the Dnieper River and a puppet government in Kiev to make it nice, legal and "democratic".
He did say in his speech at the start of the war that he had no plans of occupying Ukraine.
I can see Ukraine agreeing to neutrality and Donbass, but never half of the country to Dnieper.
Does that not mean he has to occupy all of Ukraine? Seems impossible to me.
 

Butler1000

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Oct 31, 2011
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Whatever the plan was now doesn't matter. Putin is not going to win this. Quite simply the Internet has changed war. You can't get away with anything, and communications can't be cut off. Musk just deployed Starlink above Ukraine and is sending in recievers.

Add in all the arms and he can't hold it. The soldiers on that island and the leadership have now set the standard. No quarter given or expected. And the Russian troops are quickly going to lose morale.
 

jcpro

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Jan 31, 2014
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Whatever the plan was now doesn't matter. Putin is not going to win this. Quite simply the Internet has changed war. You can't get away with anything, and communications can't be cut off. Musk just deployed Starlink above Ukraine and is sending in recievers.

Add in all the arms and he can't hold it. The soldiers on that island and the leadership have now set the standard. No quarter given or expected. And the Russian troops are quickly going to lose morale.
 

jcpro

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Jan 31, 2014
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He did say in his speech at the start of the war that he had no plans of occupying Ukraine.
I can see Ukraine agreeing to neutrality and Donbass, but never half of the country to Dnieper.
Does that not mean he has to occupy all of Ukraine? Seems impossible to me.
I don't think.he has the forces necessary for occupation of the whole country unless Belarus attacks from the north- which may happen. He might have to call up a lots of reserves which in turn might force NATO to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. This is a mess like no other we have seen- not even the Cuban Missile Crisis. He started with 120k that quickly ramped up to about 200k, but he will be running out of the high end munitions very soon and that's when the conflict will get very bloody.
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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He did say in his speech at the start of the war that he had no plans of occupying Ukraine.
I can see Ukraine agreeing to neutrality and Donbass, but never half of the country to Dnieper.
Does that not mean he has to occupy all of Ukraine? Seems impossible to me.
He also said he was going in for peace to get rid of the Nazis.

He's long term plan is the whole of Ukraine back in the fold. He has never made a secret about it. This time around he is after Eastern Ukraine, judging by the three pronged invasion, up to the Dnieper River and a puppet government in Kiev to make it nice, legal and "democratic".
But I would wonder if he'd settle for capturing Zelenskyy, offing him and trying to replace him with a puppet government.
Not that it would take, but if he can get that done in the next day or so he might be able to escape and pretend to Russia that he did what he wanted.

I don't think he can take the whole country any more.
 

jsanchez

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Apr 8, 2004
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T.O.
...Plus, the Ukes might adopt the "Irish model" of taking the fight to the Russian homeland. How would ordinary Russians feel if one of their subway trains get blown up?
That would be a fatal mistake, but I wouldn't put it past Putin to do just that.
 

wigglee

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Let's just hope that somebody pulls a Putin on Putin and slips something in his coffee.
 

mandrill

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He did say in his speech at the start of the war that he had no plans of occupying Ukraine.
I can see Ukraine agreeing to neutrality and Donbass, but never half of the country to Dnieper.
Does that not mean he has to occupy all of Ukraine? Seems impossible to me.
It's already FUBAR. The plan was to kidnap, show-trial and murder Zelensky and drive enough tanks and APC's around the rest of Ukraine that it caves. And install a Putin puppet in Kyiv who would sign any "deal" that Putin gave him.

Then he would leave a couple of armoured divisions in Ukraine as "fraternal peacekeepers" for his puppet to use to crush any remaining dissent.
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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It's already FUBAR. The plan was to kidnap, show-trial and murder Zelensky and drive enough tanks and APC's around the rest of Ukraine that it caves. And install a Putin puppet in Kyiv who would sign any "deal" that Putin gave him.

Then he would leave a couple of armoured divisions in Ukraine as "fraternal peacekeepers" for his puppet to use to crush any remaining dissent.
Today is supposed to be his big push, but its not going so well.


 

mjg1

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Feb 21, 2008
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Can Putin still claim to be a "strong man" leader after this Ukraine debacle? The whole world is now laughing at him.
Not comrade Trump, the orange clown is still telling everyone how smart Putin is, dumb Donald will never abandon his hero!
 

richaceg

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Feb 11, 2009
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He also said he was going in for peace to get rid of the Nazis.



But I would wonder if he'd settle for capturing Zelenskyy, offing him and trying to replace him with a puppet government.
Not that it would take, but if he can get that done in the next day or so he might be able to escape and pretend to Russia that he did what he wanted.

I don't think he can take the whole country any more.
taking whole Ukraine is a tall order, the most he can achieve is take out Zelenskyy and put his appointed leader. the future for Russia looks bleak. the sanctions will hurt their economy really bad that will force Russian citizens as his enemy...as I said, the biggest threat to him are his own people...that's why they try so hard to repell protests asap....they don't want protest in mainland to gain traction..
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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taking whole Ukraine is a tall order, the most he can achieve is take out Zelenskyy and put his appointed leader. the future for Russia looks bleak. the sanctions will hurt their economy really bad that will force Russian citizens as his enemy...as I said, the biggest threat to him are his own people...that's why they try so hard to repell protests asap....they don't want protest in mainland to gain traction..
Looks like he's going all in now.

Russian tank column outside Kyiv 'is 40 miles long' – report
Satellite images taken on Monday show a Russian military convoy north of Kyiv that stretches for about 40 miles (64 km) in an area north-west of Kyiv. It is substantially longer than the 17 miles (27 km) reported earlier in the day, according to the US company Maxar, Reuters reports.


But sounds like they are pretty hopeless, so maybe they'll need that many tanks.
 

Darts

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Jan 15, 2017
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