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The US and China: One Side is Losing, the Other is Winning

onthebottom

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The only way the US will maintain the illusion of growth is to rack up more and more debt. Might be able to pull that off a few more years, but in the long run it's going to limit US growth severely.

Keep your eye on the percentage of US GDP that has to be paid to foreigners every year in interest on the debt, that's the key number.

Internal lending, where money is owed to another American, can be washed away by bankruptcy courts with no long-term economic consequences, just a redistribution of wealth from creditor to debtor.

Note that in the past American public debt was mostly owed to other Americans, but now it is mostly owed to foreigners. That means the current debt load on the American government is significantly harsher than in when it was at high levels in the past. In the past repayment of the debt stimulated the economy as it transferred cash to Americans. Now repayment stimulates the Chinese economy.

The same is true of private debt, when the debt is ultimately owed to a foreigner.
Which of these arguments could you not have made 10 years ago?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt#Foreign_ownership

OTB
 

onthebottom

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My reading of that link is that foriegn ownership of US public debt has doubled over the past ten years. What's your reading?
Yes, but up to only 25%.... not that tragedy you're forecasting.

I think the facts will make you look silly. Apply the same logic to Europe....

OTB
 

hinz

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Yes, but up to only 25%.... not that tragedy you're forecasting.

I think the facts will make you look silly. Apply the same logic to Europe....

OTB
Learn too well Fuji mo when it comes to praising "the motherland".....:rolleyes:

Wait until he challenge and question whether you have been to China nowadays at all. Not so sure which China he is referring to. Does he mean "China the superpower wannabe" with all brand new infrastructures to showcase or "China a poor country" that at times it's convenient to admit when doing hard bargaining with the "Great Satan-Europe and America" but not the other emerging countries?

The tactic he spins on how China is the "true" superpower and discredit any negatives reminds me of those investment bankers at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley trying to have positive spin on obscene, outrageous bonuses, or the neocons in GOP question the Americans "patriotism" when some question how things operate after 911.

BTW, it's interesting to notice Fuji never answer questions on what capacity he contributes to his motherland say by trying to start a career in Shanghai/Beijing or really show he's the real "Chinese hand" , other than spending time all day here to discredit anybody by using data and information sourced outside China, not sources from mainland China, say People's Daily Chinese version or their government websites.
 
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hinz

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An interesting comment on China from Marc Faber, the real Dr. Doom, aka Eric Sprott's buddy. Not Nouriel Roubini or Jim Rogers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.yJy6cz_.8Y

Wait a minute, isn't the same guy who earn his name by bashing America, consider the Yankees as "Junk" debt wise? How dare he bash China, a has been and upcoming superpower like we're told by suggesting the idea of "hard landing"? :eek:

Simply put, how could he become "bearish" on China when he's known to be bullish in Asia, China in particular in the past? Would Jim Rogers change his bullishness when another Jim...Chanos prognostication, diatribe by some Chinese turn out to be closer to reality?

Where's Fuji to enlighten us?
 

fuji

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Wait until he challenge and question whether you have been to China nowadays at all.
I won't ask that of anyone who makes claims they can document or talks credibly about examples from their direct experience. I only ask that sort of question when someone seems to be pretending to be an authority on a subject but without any visible reason why anyone should take their word for it.

BTW, it's interesting to notice Fuji never answer questions on what capacity he contributes to his motherland
So at this point I've been labelled by various people on this board as Jewish, Muslim, Japanese, Chinese, and Canadian. I've also been labelled far left by some, and far right by others. This labelling tends to be the favoured tactic of people who have lost some debate with me, and are looking to slur me instead. They assume that if I argue persuasively in favour of some position that I must be a member of some related group. So when I discuss the theft of Jewish property by Arab nations a bunch of people figure I must be Jewish. Then when I open a bunch of threads criticizing the treatment of Muslims at the hands of Western nations I get some people speculating that I'm a Muslim. Now you think I'm Chinese.

It's a weak minded response, one that says more than you about me, but help yourself to it.
 

Rockslinger

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Apr 24, 2005
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Europe is equally screwed, I agree. Perhaps worse.
Most of Western Europe's best and brightest left for the Americas and Australia generations ago and the rest were killed in WW I and WW II.

Western Europe will be totally screwed when the air traffic controllers in Franch finally get their 53 weeks annual vacation.
 

Rockslinger

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The PRC has a simple foreign policy. Never interfere with alien life and negotiate with whoever is in power even if he is corrupt and abuses human rights. We forget the famous words of Captian James T. Kirk of the Starship Enterprise at our peril: "Do not interfere with alien life. Leave them as you found them. Do not preach Western values to them. It will only piss them off."
 

fuji

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Where's Fuji to enlighten us?
I don't claim to know what is going to happen to the markets or the GDP numbers one year to the next. That's a mug's game.

On the other hand it is possible to talk about what is likely to happen in the long run.

With stock markets there is an expectation that over very long periods of time we know what will happen--the stocks will go up--but predicting what they will do in the next six or twelve months is rather harder. This is why financial analysts caution against investing in equities if you have short-term saving goals, but encourage it if you have long-term goals.

In the long term fundamentals dominate the results. In the case of national economies the long term results will almost certainly be dominated by population growth and productivity gains. In the short run? Who knows, over a period of a year almost anything can happen, before the long term trends emerge and dominate.

Faber's claim is that China is only growing six or seven percent faster than the USA rather than fifteen percent faster. Specifically, that China has only grown 2-3% instead of the published 8-10% while the US has contracted by 4%.

Who knows he may be right.
 

hinz

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I won't ask that of anyone who makes claims they can document or talks credibly about examples from their direct experience. I only ask that sort of question when someone seems to be pretending to be an authority on a subject but without any visible reason why anyone should take their word for it.
You don't have to but why should anybody consider your response/defense/rebuke to anything you think unfair as an authority?

So at this point I've been labelled by various people on this board as Jewish, Muslim, Japanese, Chinese, and Canadian. I've also been labelled far left by some, and far right by others.
What credibility are your referring to since you have so many "identities"? Are you saying you are a polygot, master in Hebrew, Arabic, Japanese, Mandarin, English and French?

I am pretty sure you are capable to post a link or two here in native language other than English to discredit others point of view on specific issues, say defending the Muslims by posting the backups in Arabic or Hebrew for defending Jews, etc.

I could be wrong but I could not recall there's one.

This labelling tends to be the favoured tactic of people who have lost some debate with me, and are looking to slur me instead. They assume that if I argue persuasively in favour of some position that I must be a member of some related group. So when I discuss the theft of Jewish property by Arab nations a bunch of people figure I must be Jewish. Then when I open a bunch of threads criticizing the treatment of Muslims at the hands of Western nations I get some people speculating that I'm a Muslim. Now you think I'm Chinese.

It's a weak minded response, one that says more than you about me, but help yourself to it.
I dunno know but based on your description and your postings on other issues, it seems that you have too much free time to kill by defending issues passionately, as if you're one of the related group, in which you deny here. That says more than you.
 
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onthebottom

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Another area where China is excelling:

China sees vast pollution

By SHAI OSTER

BEIJING—China's government said its water is far more polluted and its industry is producing far more waste than previously realized, in a major study that environmentalists welcomed as a step toward greater transparency.

China's first official nationwide census of pollution sources, issued Tuesday, found that the amount of pollution discharged into the water totaled 30.3 million metric tons in 2007—more than double the 13.8 million tons reported for that year in a 2008 report, where the government said water pollution had declined 3% from 2006.

At a news conference, Zhang Lijun, vice minister for environment protection, said the huge increase reflected the census's more accurate measurements that for the first time included wastewater runoff from farms that is laden with chemicals such as ammonia. The chemicals are in fertilizers and pesticides that have revolutionized food cultivation but are misused by millions of farmers who typically work on fragmented plots of land.

The new numbers underscore the urgent need for China to clean up its waterways, because of their shrinking capacity to absorb more pollution. China estimates its water has the natural ability to safely absorb about seven million tons a year of pollution discharge.

Still, the report represents "an important first step to recognize the problem. Then you can take action," said environmentalist Ma Jun, head of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, a nonprofit organization that has compiled a database of nationwide air and water pollution using public records. "I think this is highly positive for this data to be disclosed."

Environmentalists said the survey's effectiveness in sparking change may be limited by reluctance among local officials, who are mostly judged on economic performance, to employ tougher standards that might limit industrial growth. Mr. Zhang, the vice minister, said the results of the census, which involved years of effort and about half a million workers, won't be considered in annual performance reviews of government bureaucrats.

Tuesday's data also indicated that China is producing far more industrial waste, including hazardous material, than previously reported. The ministry said industrial solid waste such as particles from mines or steel mills totaled 49.14 million tons in 2007—more than triple earlier figures for the year. The ministry didn't give an explanation for the discrepancy.

Pollution and other environmental issues have become a leading cause of social unrest in China, in addition to spurring health concerns.
 

poker

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Jun 1, 2006
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Another area where China is excelling:

China sees vast pollution

By SHAI OSTER
......

.
WOw.... at that rate they'll catch up with the US in pollution in no time at all.


Cheers!
 

onthebottom

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james t kirk

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The Chinese are dependent on the Americans (and the west) buying their shit.

No us = no them.

Very fucking simple.

If anything we could fuck them up more than they could fuck us up simply by taxing their imports. See how they like that.

Won't happen though, we're too addcted to cheap shit and we have too much invested ourselves.
 

wet_suit_one

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I won't ask that of anyone who makes claims they can document or talks credibly about examples from their direct experience. I only ask that sort of question when someone seems to be pretending to be an authority on a subject but without any visible reason why anyone should take their word for it.



So at this point I've been labelled by various people on this board as Jewish, Muslim, Japanese, Chinese, and Canadian. I've also been labelled far left by some, and far right by others. This labelling tends to be the favoured tactic of people who have lost some debate with me, and are looking to slur me instead. They assume that if I argue persuasively in favour of some position that I must be a member of some related group. So when I discuss the theft of Jewish property by Arab nations a bunch of people figure I must be Jewish. Then when I open a bunch of threads criticizing the treatment of Muslims at the hands of Western nations I get some people speculating that I'm a Muslim. Now you think I'm Chinese.

It's a weak minded response, one that says more than you about me, but help yourself to it.

Fuji, you're my hero. An intelligent man not beholden to any ideological position and willing to defend your views and argue honestly and forthrightly.

You are a man amongst monkeys. I salute you.
 
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