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Trump fires labor statistic chief...

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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It would seem to me the jobs numbers are only directionally correct most of the time. They also appear to miss inflection points.
You mean missing predicting things like COVID or the daily tariff changes this year?
how do you predict those?
 

dirtydaveiii

Well-known member
Mar 21, 2018
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Wow your a B
I'm pretty sure you don't understand the importance of accurate and timely jobs data for the Federal Reserve and the economy. You're too focused on the politics and your consumable media of choice.

We are at an inflection point in the U.S. where our economy is slowing. No matter what you are hearing or what you want to believe, the Federal Reserve has been keeping interest rates high to constrict the economy. There have been heated debates regarding the Fed's decision to not lower rates. (Perhaps you heard about this.) Two Fed Governors openly dissented with Powell and the rest of the Board. This hasn't happened in over thirty years.

Now if the BLS was producing more accurate numbers the past few months, we might have had those interest rate cuts much sooner. But lets go further and explain how this impacts Canada. The Bank of Canada held rates partially because the Fed has held rates. A unilateral rate cut tends to weaken a currency especially given recent weakness.

Here's a good read for anyone interested in what is going on beyond the politics.

Wow, you sound like a BLS expert. Most of us on here love bls
 
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squeezer

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Jan 8, 2010
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics has not been accurate with jobs data since COVID. We can both speculate as to the reasons why, but the point stands the jobs data haven't been accurate. Clearly if you have major revisions, the Fed can't do its job in calibrating interest rates and money supply particularly at inflection points in the economy.

You brought up the 2024 revision. A long backward revisions suggests the BLS was somewhat flying by the seat of their pants. If you are truly in a business where you use U.S. jobs data, you would have found the 2024 revision irksome. I'm around this industry and everyone regardless of politics was saying that the 2024 revision was fucked up. (This is where you have to separate American media messaging from the practical reality on the ground.)
I wish we had a pretzel emoji. Sorry, carry on, just things that pop into my head and then with my hands on a keyboard, the thought flows through to my fingers.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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I wish we had a pretzel emoji. Sorry, carry on, just things that pop into my head and then with my hands on a keyboard, the thought flows through to my fingers.
Don't worry, the guy who managed a 1500% reduction in medication costs is clearly the guy to be trusted with employment numbers.
 
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Frankfooter

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I just can't get over how any sane individual can still look at Trump now that he is in and say this POS is doing a good job. It just makes me think they, too, are insane just like their cult leader.
sunk cost fallacy

You spend 8 years defending a guy that everyone tells you is conning you then it takes a massive change to admit we were all right all along.
That's the same reason why those romance scams can continue for so long, the refusal to admit you've been conned.

 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
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"There would be consequences" is a very different statement from the one you actually made.

You said that the moment he got bad numbers, you knew she would be fired.
You also know that firing her has nothing to do with the methods and Trump himself provided the bullshit excuse that she was rigging the numbers against him.

So either you "knew" she would be fired because you are wildly disconnected from reality and made a lucky guess or you "knew" because you know he makes political decisions to fire non-loyalists.
I have no idea why you are quibbling and dissecting my words so much other than to make far more of this event than is there.

The BLS numbers are not reliable. The BLS head was fired. I wasn't surprised by the firing. Trump said some stupid things. That's all that happened.

I'm glad you agree that firing the BLS head is just wildly political and has nothing to do with the system itself.
Please Valcazar stop trying to put words in my mouth. Make your points and let's agree to disagree. There are a few hacks here that try to put words in other member's posts. My favorite here is fix that for you.

We could be having an interesting discussion about revising the system, but instead we are in a world where Trump demands political subservience.
We will see how things progress and hopefully improve with jobs data over time.
 
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WyattEarp

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May 17, 2017
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I’ve always said it; both were well past their prime from the start. There really should be an age limit for running for top leadership roles, regardless of party affiliation.
I totally agree. I personally would be fine if Trump stepped down in the middle of his term.

This echoes what I was saying last summer. My elderly relatives don't always see things clearly and get lost at times. They might be incredibly cogent one day and become confused and disoriented the next. (You see last year we had to cloak are concerns about Biden's cognitive decline around general concepts of aging. Otherwise, some people were having fits.)

However, protesting the President's decisions you don't like are far different than the circumstances we had last year.

Example: I have liberal friends who are complaining that we didn't have a trade deficit problem last year. I don't know why Biden and his team didn't think it was a problem. I myself think a $1 trillion dollar trade deficit that was continuing to grow was a problem. We have historically addressed large trade deficits, but not out in the open as much as this Administration. (Let's not litigate the U.S.-Canada trade negotiations on this thread. I'm speaking about trade from a global perspective.)

PS- May I ask you to not run around the board attaching laughing emojis to all my posts. At the very least, it's very passive-aggressive for who I presume is a grown man.
 

dirtydaveiii

Well-known member
Mar 21, 2018
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I totally agree. I personally would be fine if Trump stepped down in the middle of his term.

This echoes what I was saying last summer. My elderly relatives don't always see things clearly and get lost at times. They might be incredibly cogent one day and become confused and disoriented the next. (You see last year we had to cloak are concerns about Biden's cognitive decline around general concepts of aging. Otherwise, some people were having fits.)

However, protesting the President's decisions you don't like are far different than the circumstances we had last year.

Example: I have liberal friends who are complaining that we didn't have a trade deficit problem last year. I don't know why Biden and his team didn't think it was a problem. I myself think a $1 trillion dollar trade deficit that was continuing to grow was a problem. We have historically addressed large trade deficits, but not out in the open as much as this Administration. (Let's not litigate the U.S.-Canada trade negotiations on this thread. I'm speaking about trade from a global perspective.)

PS- May I ask you to not run around the board attaching laughing emojis to all my posts. At the very least, it's very passive-aggressive for who I presume is a grown man.
Do you feel that TACOs tariffs are successful in countering the trade defeceit ?
 
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squeezer

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I totally agree. I personally would be fine if Trump stepped down in the middle of his term.

This echoes what I was saying last summer. My elderly relatives don't always see things clearly and get lost at times. They might be incredibly cogent one day and become confused and disoriented the next. (You see last year we had to cloak are concerns about Biden's cognitive decline around general concepts of aging. Otherwise, some people were having fits.)
Isn't it awesome when we agree on something but no, Biden and Trump are both in cognitive decline yet you will pick Biden apart and not Trump. Plus, I would happily take a Biden with his Admin behind him over a Trump 3-ring circus running the country but hey, that's just me. What do I know?

However, protesting the President's decisions you don't like are far different than the circumstances we had last year.

Example: I have liberal friends who are complaining that we didn't have a trade deficit problem last year. I don't know why Biden and his team didn't think it was a problem. I myself think a $1 trillion dollar trade deficit that was continuing to grow was a problem. We have historically addressed large trade deficits, but not out in the open as much as this Administration. (Let's not litigate the U.S.-Canada trade negotiations on this thread. I'm speaking about trade from a global perspective.)
Question, are you placing Wyatt tariffs on your grocery store since surely this is a growing problem for the Wyatt household, no?

PS- May I ask you to not run around the board attaching laughing emojis to all my posts. At the very least, it's very passive-aggressive for who I presume is a grown man.
Since you asked, I will honor your request, but it's just so much simpler than debating with a pretzel. I will keep my word and deprive you of my laughter going forward.


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jalimon

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Jan 10, 2016
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The BLS numbers are not reliable. The BLS head was fired. I wasn't surprised by the firing. Trump said some stupid things. That's all that happened.
It's remarkable how, for more than 40 years, the data was reliable and crucial for so many. Then, when the data is bad for Trump, it's rigged. Just like he said, if he ever loses an election, it was because it was rigged.

Trump is a fraud phony balony fucking you all. It's funny seeing you trying to make sense out of it. Makes my day :ROFLMAO:
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
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Question, are you placing Wyatt tariffs on your grocery store since surely this is a growing problem for the Wyatt household, no?
Honestly no. Different grocery items routinely go on sale. In 2020-2022, these promotions dried up.

There is some media drama over meat prices and it is a problem. However, I would think that Canadians would understand the economic cycle of herds. There are long lead times. Personally, I prefer chicken and fish. Steaks are nice to have occasionally.

The biggest issue as far as prices is residential real estate. Regardless of supply and demand, residential real estate prices are notoriously sticky. Mortgage rates are high and the expectation is for them to come down in the near-term. So people are sitting on their houses they want to sell.

Now you might ask how will all that help home price inflation. The residential prices might not come down much, but the cost of financing could drop dramatically.

From what I understand, Canada imports a lot of food. So you might be seeing different issues on Canadian shelves.
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
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It's remarkable how, for more than 40 years, the data was reliable and crucial for so many. Then, when the data is bad for Trump, it's rigged. Just like he said, if he ever loses an election, it was because it was rigged.

Trump is a fraud phony balony fucking you all. It's funny seeing you trying to make sense out of it. Makes my day :ROFLMAO:
Biden should have made changes at the BLS last year, but it would have not looked good months before an election.
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
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I realize the politics of the BLS shake-up are more intriguing, but sometimes it can't hurt to read something substantive.

This was Fed Governor Christopher Waller's statement supporting his dissenting vote to cut interest rates two weeks ago.

"My final reason to favor a cut now is that while the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed, and other data suggest that the downside risks to the labor market have increased. With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate."

"A pattern in data revisions in recent years tells us that the private payroll data are being overestimated and will be revised down significantly when the benchmark revision occurs in early 2026."


He literally is saying the jobs data is not reliable and emphasizes the problem in recent years. Both the U.S. and Canada are at critical inflection points in the economy. It's overdue, but the U.S. will cut rates in September and Canada will follow shortly thereafter.
 
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