Vaccine passports not an infringement on human rights: OHRC

[Valcazar]

Can you post the stats on that because I’m pretty sure I have read differently. I could be wrong and have too much of a headache at the moment to go looking.

It's a combination of two factors.
Vaccinated people are less likely to get it (so therefore less likely to pass it on) and all evidence right now is that their cases are milder and last for a shorter time, which means they have less time to pass it on.

Now, since Alpha Covid had a pretty heterogeneous tendency to spread (Re was 2-3, but it seemed to cluster in super spreaders) I'm not sure if Delta is more even or also very spiky in its transmission like that. It could be that the super spreader people stay super spreader if they get it, so the average transmissibility window being shorter doesn't help much. Or it could be that it is even MORE effective a that because it tends to prevent people from shifting into Super Spreader mode. I don't know how deep they've gotten into any kind of evidence on that.

But the basic core point is fairly straight forward --> Fewer people get it, so there is less transmission from them, and they get it weaker and for a shorter time, so there is less transmission from them.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

It's a combination of two factors.
Vaccinated people are less likely to get it (so therefore less likely to pass it on) and all evidence right now is that their cases are milder and last for a shorter time, which means they have less time to pass it on.

Now, since Alpha Covid had a pretty heterogeneous tendency to spread (Re was 2-3, but it seemed to cluster in super spreaders) I'm not sure if Delta is more even or also very spiky in its transmission like that. It could be that the super spreader people stay super spreader if they get it, so the average transmissibility window being shorter doesn't help much. Or it could be that it is even MORE effective a that because it tends to prevent people from shifting into Super Spreader mode. I don't know how deep they've gotten into any kind of evidence on that.

But the basic core point is fairly straight forward --> Fewer people get it, so there is less transmission from them, and they get it weaker and for a shorter time, so there is less transmission from them

That sounds about right.

I still think that if we have 80 to 90% vaccine compliance rate, and you throw in whatever amount of people have natural immunity from getting infected, there's no need for vaccine passports, or for people to be fired from their job(s).

Just my $0.02 worth

 

[Valcazar]

That sounds about right.

I still think that if we have 80 to 90% vaccine compliance rate, and you throw in whatever amount of people have natural immunity from getting infected, there's no need for vaccine passports, or for people to be fired from their job(s).

Just my $0.02 worth

Vaccine passports only make sense in areas of high transmission and low general resistance.
When your vaccination rate is stalling out at 60-70% with something with a high R and community transmission rates are fairly high, then they can make sense.
If you are in the 90s, and transmission rates are low, there is no need.

In Canada, where you could do something fairly straightforward like "you were diagnosed in hospital with COVID-19" (or some other official diagnosis centre since we have a quite centralized health care system) there really isn't any reason NOT to include people who have had the disease as part of your resistant list. (Or count it as one dose of a two or three dose regimen, or whatever.) That gets rid of the idiots who are just going to say "I felt sick, must have had COVID, I don't need a vaccine". You count if you went into a hospital or a doctor's office and got tested and came out positive.

Mind you, I still think what is really needed is aggressive rapid testing. Yes, it would piss off most of the anti-vax/covid is a hoax people. (Try going to a restaurant and they test you and you have to wait 20 minutes and then they say "we aren't letting you in and also these people are going to quarantine you now" - the freak out would be epic.) Home tests which are quick and dirt cheap and basically you don't go out if you test positive would also help, even knowing a portion of the population would just lie if they thought it inconvenienced them.

 

[Jenesis]

It's a combination of two factors.
Vaccinated people are less likely to get it (so therefore less likely to pass it on) and all evidence right now is that their cases are milder and last for a shorter time, which means they have less time to pass it on.

Now, since Alpha Covid had a pretty heterogeneous tendency to spread (Re was 2-3, but it seemed to cluster in super spreaders) I'm not sure if Delta is more even or also very spiky in its transmission like that. It could be that the super spreader people stay super spreader if they get it, so the average transmissibility window being shorter doesn't help much. Or it could be that it is even MORE effective a that because it tends to prevent people from shifting into Super Spreader mode. I don't know how deep they've gotten into any kind of evidence on that.

But the basic core point is fairly straight forward --> Fewer people get it, so there is less transmission from them, and they get it weaker and for a shorter time, so there is less transmission from them.

Ok but what is the actual transmission rate? I get less people sick means less spreading but from my understanding a sick vaccinated person can spread it just the same as a sick unvaccinated person

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Mind you, I still think what is really needed is aggressive rapid testing

Agreed on this, and also on-the-spot temperature testing

 

[squeezer]

Thats smart, I do the same.
I only reserve about 10% for pennystock speculating


Then why not post your portfolio??
You can edit out all your personal information, like I do

The same reason I don't post or send out dick pics. One must keep some things private.

This is great news. Finally someone is seeing the light.

Ford is a pussy and so far he's lost my vote in June!

Remember, you promised to give me your vote if I run!!!!!

 

[Valcazar]

Ok but what is the actual transmission rate? I get less people sick means less spreading but from my understanding a sick vaccinated person can spread it just the same as a sick unvaccinated person

What do you mean by that though?
If you mean someone who has gotten sick, with symptoms, and is all feverish and chills and terrible - does it matter if they were vaccinated before for their transmissibility, then no, they are almost certainly the same. (I doubt anyone has done a formal study, though.) Why would they be any different? Once you are sick, you are transmitting. There are no vaccines that change that.

I already said the other part of it is how long and how severe. If it is less, it is less.

You cannot think about vaccines on an individual level. Nothing about why they work is individual when you are talking about a highly contagious disease.
That's why all this "it's my choice" / "Why are you worried if you're protected" talk is so frustrating to people. It completely misunderstands that is going on.
(It was the same things with masks and distancing. The fact that a cloth mask "barely protects you" was thrown around like it was some kind of "gotcha" by people who can't understand what's happening.)

Let's make a simple model that doesn't reflect the real numbers at all but just shows the concept.

Once infected past a certain threshold you are 5 points of risk to people you encounter while pre-symptomatic and 10 points when symptomatic.
Normal course of the disease for an unvaccinated person is 4 days pre-symptomatic and 2 days symptomatic.
Normal course of the disease for vaccinated person is 3 days symptomatic and 1 day symptomatic.

Who presents more risk to the population?

 

[Valcazar]

Agreed on this, and also on-the-spot temperature testing

Almost completely useless.
Anything can be causing a fever, and all evidence is you are infectious LONG before you develop a fever in the case of the disease we are actually interested in.
Tells you nothing useful.

 

[mandrill]

Vaccine passports only make sense in areas of high transmission and low general resistance.
When your vaccination rate is stalling out at 60-70% with something with a high R and community transmission rates are fairly high, then they can make sense.
If you are in the 90s, and transmission rates are low, there is no need.

In Canada, where you could do something fairly straightforward like "you were diagnosed in hospital with COVID-19" (or some other official diagnosis centre since we have a quite centralized health care system) there really isn't any reason NOT to include people who have had the disease as part of your resistant list. (Or count it as one dose of a two or three dose regimen, or whatever.) That gets rid of the idiots who are just going to say "I felt sick, must have had COVID, I don't need a vaccine". You count if you went into a hospital or a doctor's office and got tested and came out positive.

Mind you, I still think what is really needed is aggressive rapid testing. Yes, it would piss off most of the anti-vax/covid is a hoax people. (Try going to a restaurant and they test you and you have to wait 20 minutes and then they say "we aren't letting you in and also these people are going to quarantine you now" - the freak out would be epic.) Home tests which are quick and dirt cheap and basically you don't go out if you test positive would also help, even knowing a portion of the population would just lie if they thought it inconvenienced them.

Except the science as to "natural immunity" is still not solid.

The board anti vaxxers are running with the "Israel Study" from several months ago, but that is now being questioned.

 

[Valcazar]

Except the science as to "natural immunity" is still not solid.

The board anti vaxxers are running with the "Israel Study" from several months ago, but that is now being questioned.

The "OMG it's so much better" stuff is not solid but that it is protective is solid.
This is why I say you put some kind of standard register for it.
Maybe you make it equivalent of a single dose, depending on how the science plays out.
If you were sick enough to go in to a hospital or a doctor's office to get tested, that's worth at least one shot, maybe two - depends on the data (and there is more than one study out there).

I'm not willing to go as far as that Z-dog/Z-doc guy (who I generally like) who is all for just adding them and letting people lie about their status, but I am fine with adding some kind of reasonably verifiable requirement.

 

[basketcase]

At least you've finally looked at the study, thats progress for you

Sadly you haven't (which is why you linked to an op/ed instead).

 

[basketcase]

Can you post the stats on that because I’m pretty sure I have read differently. I could be wrong and have too much of a headache at the moment to go looking.

Recent studies are showing vaccinated people are infectious for a shorter period

Viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals

Background The alpha and delta SARS-CoV-2 variants have been responsible for major recent waves of COVID-19 despite increasing vaccination rates. The reasons for the increased transmissibility of these variants and for the reduced transmissibility of vaccine breakthrough infections are unclear...

www.medrxiv.org

and have lower risk of transmission

Transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of Delta variant infections in China

Background The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become predominant globally. We evaluated the transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of the Delta variant in an outbreak in southern China. Methods Data on confirmed cases and their close contacts were retrospectively collected...

www.medrxiv.org

 

[basketcase]

..., and you throw in whatever amount of people have natural immunity from getting infected,...

Sadly studies are showing the immunity from diagnosed cases varies widely so a past positive test (especially an asymptomatic one) does not necessarily mean a similar level of immunity as vaccinated people.

 

[seagerbuzz]

Sadly studies are showing the immunity from diagnosed cases varies widely so a past positive test (especially an asymptomatic one) does not necessarily mean a similar level of immunity as vaccinated people.

Yet it's the vaccinated people that need multiple shots of the vaccine.

 

[basketcase]

Yet it's the vaccinated people that need multiple shots of the vaccine.

Hate to break it to you but natural immunity wanes over a similar time frame. Would you rather get a vaccine once a year or get covid once a year?

 

[seagerbuzz]

Hate to break it to you but natural immunity wanes over a similar time frame. Would you rather get a vaccine once a year or get covid once a year?

The covid vaccine isn't once a year. So far it twice in 6 months and in Israel it's 3 times in 9 months.

 

[canada-man]

Hate to break it to you but natural immunity wanes over a similar time frame. Would you rather get a vaccine once a year or get covid once a year?

constantly repeating corona propaganda does not make it true.

 

[sp free]

Natural immunity is far superior. The vaccines target a fraction of the spike protein…from the alpha variant model.

They are virtually useless against Delta, which your government knew before you all lined up.

 

[squeezer]

constantly repeating corona propaganda does not make it true.

Natural immunity is far superior. The vaccines target a fraction of the spike protein…from the alpha variant model.

They are virtually useless against Delta, which your government knew before you all lined up.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Sadly you haven't (which is why you linked to an op/ed instead)

Sadly, you dont read very well