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Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
32,183
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After all the tariff and trade wars have been settled, everything will go back to normal.
I dont think we're headed for a worldwide depression.

And the countries who turned against the US will eventually return.
The US needs the rest of the world, but the rest of the world also needs the US
I think your optimism is nice. I hope I'm wrong. But if both China and the US spiral down, they will take us with them.
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
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The housing crisis will happen because foreclosures are about to start. A lot of them. Couple that with a recession and the only real buyers will be investors and private equity. And they will once again overcharge on rent. A lot of small business are about to go under due to tariffs.

Basically the nation is about to end up with, imo, a further culling of the middle class, a lot more bankruotcies, and a longer recession than people realize. This isn't going to be a business as usual one.
No offense, this is not just a big narrative but also prognostication. It's also not that inciteful. Foreclosures will start with a recession? Uh, yeah.

Recessions come and go almost like clockwork. That's what I've always said here forever and a day. When the U.S. has a dynamic economy with strong underlying productivity growth, it has the foundation to resume growth relatively quickly. The U.S. also has access to self-sufficient, cheap energy. When the Fed is satisfied with price levels they will lower rates and re-stimulate the economy. Recessions bring the benefit of long overdue but painful adjustments.

People who predict U.S. recessions are clever. People who predict U.S. depressions are less so.
 
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WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
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I doubt they could even get a Referendum on a ballot. There just isn't an appetite for it.
With the Quebec experience in mind, wouldn't it be beneficial for Alberta to at least discuss a referendum?
Isn't this a way to ensure some concessions from Ottawa that benefit Alberta?
 

squeezer

Well-known member
Jan 8, 2010
23,283
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No offense, this is not just a big narrative but also prognostication. It's also not that inciteful. Foreclosures will start with a recession? Uh, yeah.

Recessions come and go almost like clockwork. That's what I've always said here forever and a day. When the U.S. has a dynamic economy with strong underlying productivity growth, it has the foundation to resume growth relatively quickly. The U.S. also has access to self-sufficient, cheap energy. When the Fed is satisfied with price levels they will lower rates and re-stimulate the economy. Recessions bring the benefit of long overdue but painful adjustments.


People who predict U.S. recessions are clever. People who predict U.S. depressions are less so.
You sir amaze me. Now recessions are a good thing, now that your guy is in office. Hmmmmm, interesting. I wonder what you would be saying if the stock market were in the shambles it is today, businesses not knowing which way to turn, investment-wise wise and prices rising so fast that Trump has to scream at Bezos for showing the increase tariffs are causing if Kamala had won and this was all happening under her watch. Hmmmmmmm

You will take this as an insult, but the preztelling you do is quite a talent and a skill not too many have.
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
32,183
5,929
113
No offense, this is not just a big narrative but also prognostication. It's also not that inciteful. Foreclosures will start with a recession? Uh, yeah.

Recessions come and go almost like clockwork. That's what I've always said here forever and a day. When the U.S. has a dynamic economy with strong underlying productivity growth, it has the foundation to resume growth relatively quickly. The U.S. also has access to self-sufficient, cheap energy. When the Fed is satisfied with price levels they will lower rates and re-stimulate the economy. Recessions bring the benefit of long overdue but painful adjustments.


People who predict U.S. recessions are clever. People who predict U.S. depressions are less so.
We shall see. I think this time it's less likely to be able to paper over things.

Oh and a lot of that "cheap energy" is Canadian. Maybe we need to raise the prices up a bit......
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
8,455
2,783
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You sir amaze me. Now recessions are a good thing, now that your guy is in office. Hmmmmm, interesting. I wonder what you would be saying if the stock market were in the shambles it is today, businesses not knowing which way to turn, investment-wise wise and prices rising so fast that Trump has to scream at Bezos for showing the increase tariffs are causing if Kamala had won and this was all happening under her watch. Hmmmmmmm

You will take this as an insult, but the preztelling you do is quite a talent and a skill not too many have.
It's not a question of whether they are good or bad, it's that recessions are inevitable. The economic cycle has a natural pull that doesn't tightly follow political policies.

I do seem to remember awhile back I was discussing the ten year structural stagnation in Canada that now seems to be fairly obvious to everyone. Back then, you were responding something to the effect that Canada's fine.

I've been saying for several years here don't get too absorbed into the recessionary cycles. You on the other hand........Uh, structural stagnation we'z good.
 
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WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
8,455
2,783
113
We shall see. I think this time it's less likely to be able to paper over things.

Oh and a lot of that "cheap energy" is Canadian. Maybe we need to raise the prices up a bit......
Canadian energy might flow through U.S. refineries. It's more important to look at U.S. production and consumption data.

Since oil is fungible, it's easy to focus too much on sourcing and destinations but lose the big picture.
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
32,183
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Canadian energy might flow through U.S. refineries. It's more important to look at U.S. production and consumption data.

Since oil is fungible, it's easy to focus too much on sourcing and destinations but lose the big picture.
You forgot electricity. And it's place in manufacturing. The mere threat of a price increase worked wonders on some attitude issues.
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
8,455
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You forgot electricity. And it's place in manufacturing. The mere threat of a price increase worked wonders on some attitude issues.
In this context, we were talking about the dynamism of the U.S. economy.

You are reverting to a tariff discussion.
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
32,183
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In this context, we were talking about the dynamism of the U.S. economy.

You are reverting to a tariff discussion.
Sure. I think that some of that dynamism has now left the building. And there is a whole basket of issues that are about to arise by the fall that will cause a 90's style recession at the least. I think too many sectors are about to take a simultaneous hit. And private equity is actually hoping it will happen so they can cash in.

It's your own finance guys that are going to let it happen.
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
8,455
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Sure. I think that some of that dynamism has now left the building. And there is a whole basket of issues that are about to arise by the fall that will cause a 90's style recession at the least. I think too many sectors are about to take a simultaneous hit. And private equity is actually hoping it will happen so they can cash in.

It's your own finance guys that are going to let it happen.
I'm not sure what you think a 90's recession is like, but we had one recession 1990/1991. For those of us with some perspective, it wasn't a big deal. I can't speak for Canada.

The whole money guys swoop in after a crash thing is some Marxist overselling. Economic cycles are inevitable. Even planned economies like the Soviet Union had economic cycles.
 
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Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
32,183
5,929
113
I'm not sure what you think a 90's recession is like, but we had one recession 1990/1991. For those of us with some perspective, it wasn't a big deal. I can't speak for Canada.

The whole money guys swoop in after a crash thing is some Marxist overselling. Economic cycles are inevitable. Even planned economies like the Soviet Union had economic cycles.
Lol. They swooped in 2008, 2020 and again coming up. When they aren't taking corporate welfare.

It's coming.
 
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squeezer

Well-known member
Jan 8, 2010
23,283
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It's not a question of whether they are good or bad, it's that recessions are inevitable. The economic cycle has a natural pull that doesn't tightly follow political policies.

I do seem to remember awhile back I was discussing the ten year structural stagnation in Canada that now seems to be fairly obvious to everyone. Back then, you were responding something to the effect that Canada's fine.

I've been saying for several years here don't get too absorbed into the recessionary cycles. You on the other hand........Uh, structural stagnation we'z good.
The fact remains, TRUMP is pushing the US and Canada into a recession with his ridiculous tariff polices, attacking his allies, and creating instability for businesses. This, as the experts stated back during the election, would not happen under a Harris administration. Why you cannot admit that this will be a Trump-caused recession is amazing.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
100,535
27,658
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I'm not sure what you think a 90's recession is like, but we had one recession 1990/1991. For those of us with some perspective, it wasn't a big deal. I can't speak for Canada.

The whole money guys swoop in after a crash thing is some Marxist overselling. Economic cycles are inevitable. Even planned economies like the Soviet Union had economic cycles.
Is the new MAGA line that a recession isn't a big deal?
First it was cheap eggs and economic prosperity and now its, 'so its a little recession'.
 
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Pancakes1

Member
Mar 13, 2017
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The fact remains, TRUMP is pushing the US and Canada into a recession with his ridiculous tariff polices, attacking his allies, and creating instability for businesses. This, as the experts stated back during the election, would not happen under a Harris administration. Why you cannot admit that this will be a Trump-caused recession is amazing.
ToutGhislaineMaxwell-GettyImages-1168875173.jpg


Literally everything you have ever said is disproved by this simple image. Go back to the drawing board MAGA supporter.
 

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
29,302
10,604
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Room 112
They did look at the big picture - especially the voters in Carleton. Pee is just very, very hate-able.
He just got 8.1 million votes....that doesn't sound very hate able to me.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
100,535
27,658
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