Jays 2026 Thread

[maurice93]

I hope the Jays trade Berrios, for another starting pitcher. However, Berrios still is owed $70 million by the Jays, so the Jays will probably have to pay some of Berrios salary to another team, if Berrios is actually traded.

If you trade Berrios for another starter, you will get starter that is worse than the current top 6 on the roster. So probably no real point to go that way.

Not against trading Berrios though which we will have to eat 50% if its not a garbage contract in return.

 

[Trevor Wong]

The Jays just signed reliever Tyler Rogers.

Blue Jays add submariner Tyler Rogers to bullpen (source)

 

[roddermac]

If you trade Berrios for another starter, you will get starter that is worse than the current top 6 on the roster. So probably no real point to go that way.

Not against trading Berrios though which we will have to eat 50% if its not a garbage contract in return.

I think if they can trade Berrios it should be for another outfielder or third baseman depending on where they want Barger full time.

 

[Toronto Passions]

I'm counting the moments until they can sign Pete Fairbank. Chris Bassett and Pete Fairbank I think would be perfect for this bullpen. With Chris Bassett being a last moment starter when required… Chris Bassett and his stuff played so well in the playoffs out of the bullpen.

The big question is Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette or both?

Philip

 

[Trevor Wong]

I'm counting the moments until they can sign Pete Fairbank. Chris Bassett and Pete Fairbank I think would be perfect for this bullpen. With Chris Bassett being a last moment starter when required… Chris Bassett and his stuff played so well in the playoffs out of the bullpen.

The big question is Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette or both?

Philip

I seriously doubt the Jays will re-sign Bassett or Scherzer. Seranthony Dominguez will also not be re-signed. Pete Fairbanks has had continuous finger problems, so I doubt the Jays will sign him either.

If the Jays can't sign Bichette or Tucker, they'll try to sign Bregman or Cody Bellinger.

 

[Trevor Wong]

I think if they can trade Berrios it should be for another outfielder or third baseman depending on where they want Barger full time.

Berrios has such a bad attitude towards the Blue Jays, that the Jays might try to trade Berrios, just to keep up team harmony and chemistry. Right now, Berrios is the Jays 6th starter, anyway. The Jays might be willing to pay another team half his salary, just to get rid of Berrios. In my opinion, the fact that Berrios went home to his family, during the Blue Jays world series run was disgraceful. Whereas players like Scherzer and Bassett, had the totally opposite attitude, even though both of them were left off the Jays playoff rosters, until the world series roster.

 

[onomatopoeia]

The Jays just signed reliever Tyler Rogers.

Blue Jays add submariner Tyler Rogers to bullpen (source)

Tyler Rogers Career Stats

I'll go on record as saying this is an A+ move.

Rogers has the slowest fastball in the Majors. He's also led the Majors in relief appearances four times in his six full seasons.

I think there's way too much emphasis placed on a pitcher's velocity and strikeout rate. The pitcher's job is to get batters out, not to throw as fast as he can. I can't see Rogers going on the d/l for arm issues anytime in the next three seasons. Strikeouts are much more important when the team's hitters are poor fielders.

We all know that Philip has a fanboy crush on Roger Clemens' career, but my favorite from the past 30 or so years has to be Greg Maddux.

 

[K Douglas]

Rogers had great numbers last year but I don't think he's closer material. He doesn't miss bats.
As for Berrios we wouldn't get much for him on the trade market. So lets see if we can get more juice out of him. The last time he had a down year he bounced back nicely.

 

[roddermac]

Berrios has such a bad attitude towards the Blue Jays, that the Jays might try to trade Berrios, just to keep up team harmony and chemistry. Right now, Berrios is the Jays 6th starter, anyway. The Jays might be willing to pay another team half his salary, just to get rid of Berrios. In my opinion, the fact that Berrios went home to his family, during the Blue Jays world series run was disgraceful. Whereas players like Scherzer and Bassett, had the totally opposite attitude, even though both of them were left off the Jays playoff rosters, until the world series roster.

I'd like to hear Berrios side of the story before passing any judgement. But still he has good career stats. With what starters are getting in free agency I don't see it hard to trade him to a desperate team. They won't have to pay half his salary but I really think best move for the club is to resign Bichette if he's willing to play the two bag and get via trade another outfielder.

 

[Toronto Passions]

We all know that Philip has a fanboy crush on Roger Clemens' career,

Oh great, you just had to get me started on The Rocket, didn't you?

Do you still call it a fanboy crush when you are simply recognizing God and his perfect mechanics?

Philip

 

[Toronto Passions]

I seriously doubt the Jays will re-sign Bassett or Scherzer. Seranthony Dominguez will also not be re-signed. Pete Fairbanks has had continuous finger problems, so I doubt the Jays will sign him either.

If the Jays can't sign Bichette or Tucker, they'll try to sign Bregman or Cody Bellinger.

I don't agree with that. I feel like Chris Bassett would make a great long man/emergency starter. You have Eric Lauer on the left side for the same role. The question is though would Bassett want that role? He probably still feels like he could be a starter somewhere. I would like to see them bring back Dominguez. Pete Fairbanks still had 27 saves last year and through 60 innings with a 2.83 ERA. I think he made $3.5 million last year and he is 31 years old… Wouldn't take much to bring him here and it creates more options potentially. Plus, it feels like he's always been a thorn in the Blue Jays side that they can't do anything about. I say sign him.

Philip

 

[maurice93]

I don't agree with that. I feel like Chris Bassett would make a great long man/emergency starter. You have Eric Lauer on the left side for the same role. The question is though would Bassett want that role? He probably still feels like he could be a starter somewhere. I would like to see them bring back Dominguez. Pete Fairbanks still had 27 saves last year and through 60 innings with a 2.83 ERA. I think he made $3.5 million last year and he is 31 years old… Wouldn't take much to bring him here and it creates more options potentially. Plus, it feels like he's always been a thorn in the Blue Jays side that they can't do anything about. I say sign him.

Philip

Bassitt is almost certainly not happening, and Fairbanks went from possible to very unlikely after Rogers signed. (I think Fairbanks and Rogers were in the same tier that they were looking to sign 1 pitcher).

Bassitt's has had predicted salaries in the 2/35 range from multiple sites. Could Bassitt do that swing role well? Sure he could do it well, but its mutually not a fit:
a) Jays have no interest in paying a swing man 2/35, especially when they already have 7 candidates for starting spots.
b) Bassitt has zero interest in being a swing man. He wants to be a starter as he is still competent in that role. He did the bullpen thing because it was the PLAYOFFS. That is who he is. He liked it here, but there is no longer a mutual fit between both parties. He will find a playoff contender like the Cubs/Astros.

I'd gladly be proving wrong, because he could do the role, but he rightfully has higher aspirations.

Pete Fairbanks I have seen predicted at 2/18. I think he was certainly a strong consideration for the Jays, but once the Jays signed Rogers that likely was going to be it for the pen for right handed pitchers. Jays already have 4 leverage relievers that are righthanded. (Hoffman, Varland, Garcia, Rogers, and even Fisher). Fairbanks biggest issue is his medical condition that makes him struggle when the weather is cooler.

Jays have 7 starters already. (Gausman, Bieiber, Yesavage, Cease, Berrios, Ponce, Lauer)
We also have 4 leverage relievers (Hoffman, Garcia, Varland, Rogers) and 11 other options for 4 spots deeper in the pen(Little, Fluharty, Tiedemann, Lee, Yariel, Nance, Miles, Bastardo, Lauer (LR), Berrios (LR), Fisher)

I don't think they are adding another big piece to the pitching staff. If they do add a moderate piece my guess its a lefty reliever. Would be glad to be wrong but I think Cease, Ponce, Rogers was their big moves. They will assess what they have and I would expect them to add a pitcher at the deadline.

 

[maurice93]

I'd like to hear Berrios side of the story before passing any judgement. But still he has good career stats. With what starters are getting in free agency I don't see it hard to trade him to a desperate team. They won't have to pay half his salary but I really think best move for the club is to resign Bichette if he's willing to play the two bag and get via trade another outfielder.

I don't think there are people of his quality (or indicators) that will be signing for close to 3/70 though.

Berrios FIP's the last two years (4.72 and 4.65) are not good... and front offices look way more at FIP than ERA, as its more predictive. He also had a fairly significant decline in his stuff this past year based on pitch metrics. Poor predictive stats, fairly significant decline in stuff, possibly hurt... all the things that 100% deter front offices.

Merrill Kelly is predicted around 2/30 and Bassitt around 2/35, and they were better than Berrios last year. Older but stuff did not deteriorate either in 2025.

I just can't see how the Jays won't have to eat at least 40% of that deal if they are intent on moving him, for no salary in return. Now if you deal for a questionable contract on the other side, then maybe there is no eating.

 

[maurice93]

Rogers had great numbers last year but I don't think he's closer material. He doesn't miss bats.
As for Berrios we wouldn't get much for him on the trade market. So lets see if we can get more juice out of him. The last time he had a down year he bounced back nicely.

I guess the question is whether 2024 was a down year or not. He did have have an ERA of 3.60, but his FI was 4.72, which suggested there was some luck in that year.

So I'm not sure if 2025 was really an isolated year, or just a continuation of 2024, with some decline in his stuff.

I assume the Jays are still on some budget, so if the Jays need to clear 10-12M of salary to make some critical move, then you eat 50% of his salary. But otherwise, I sort of agree just put him on the team, start him as the 6th starter / long reliever.... I'm sure there will be injuries, and hope that he pitches better,

 

[onomatopoeia]

Toronto Blue Jays 2025 Salaries

Toronto Blue Jays 2026 Salaries

The Jays are already well into the Luxury Tax penalty range for 2026.

For those who scoff, and say 'Rogers can afford it', know that the penalty is more than monetary. If they sign any free agent who declined a qualifying offer, it will cost them draft pick compensation and draft positions.

Salaries listed in pink are arbitration estimates. Kevin Gausman and George Springer are on expiring contracts, and Daulton Varsho will be eligible for free agency after 2026 if he isn't extended.

Andres Gimenez' salary will jump to $23 Million plus for 2027-30, and Myles Straw will be difficult to move at $16.5 Million for 2027/28.

 

[maurice93]

I don't think there are people of his quality (or indicators) that will be signing for close to 3/70 though.

Berrios FIP's the last two years (4.72 and 4.65) are not good... and front offices look way more at FIP than ERA, as its more predictive. He also had a fairly significant decline in his stuff this past year based on pitch metrics. Poor predictive stats, fairly significant decline in stuff, possibly hurt... all the things that 100% deter front offices.

Merrill Kelly is predicted around 2/30 and Bassitt around 2/35, and they were better than Berrios last year. Older but stuff did not deteriorate either in 2025.

I just can't see how the Jays won't have to eat at least 40% of that deal if they are intent on moving him, for no salary in return. Now if you deal for a questionable contract on the other side, then maybe there is no eating.

Kelly came in at 2/40 which was above predicted market... so that makes Berrios a bit easier to move than per my post above. We still have to eat a decent part of his deal (unless its a bad contract in return) but maybe its 10-15% less.

Also that is a pretty good comp for what Bassitt will get. Jays are not paying that.

 

[maurice93]

Myles Straw will be difficult to move at $16.5 Million for 2027/28.

You are mistaken on Straw.

He will be very easy to move in 2027 and 2028 as those years are "Club Options". As per the terms of the trade the $1.75 million buyout is the responsibility of the Indians.

So the Jays financial obligations for Straw end this year with his $6.4M contract. Rich for what he brings.

 

[maurice93]

Toronto Blue Jays 2025 Salaries

Toronto Blue Jays 2026 Salaries

The Jays are already well into the Luxury Tax penalty range for 2026.

For those who scoff, and say 'Rogers can afford it', know that the penalty is more than monetary. If they sign any free agent who declined a qualifying offer, it will cost them draft pick compensation and draft positions.

Salaries listed in pink are arbitration estimates. Kevin Gausman and George Springer are on expiring contracts, and Daulton Varsho will be eligible for free agency after 2026 if he isn't extended.

Andres Gimenez' salary will jump to $23 Million plus for 2027-30, and Myles Straw will be difficult to move at $16.5 Million for 2027/28

Bo, Bregman, Bellinger, every reliever except Diaz, would have no compensation for the Jays. Tucker would though (and Cease did)

The penalties are likely to get worse after 2026 for the Jays, because they got under the tax line in 2025. . Next year the penalties will be more and I assume they are making their FA moves now in part due to that.

I do not expect significant external spending next offseason. They will work in the realm of free agents who do not have Qualifying offers which is the majority of them. Just not the elite - or they will look to retain one or two of their own players. But next offseason will not be a "net add" I would think.

 

[Trevor Wong]

Bo, Bregman, Bellinger, every reliever except Diaz, would have no compensation for the Jays. Tucker would though (and Cease did)

The penalties are likely to get worse after 2026 for the Jays, because they got under the tax line in 2025. This was the better year to sign free agents as they have less restrictions. Next year the penalties will be more and I assume they are making their FA moves now in part due to that.

I do not expect significant external spending next offseason. They will work in the realm of free agents who do not have Qualifying offers which is the majority of them. Just not the elite - or they will look to retain one or two of their own players. But next offseason will not be a "net add" I would think.

There could be a lockout in the 2026/27 MLB season, anyway.

 

[Trevor Wong]

I don't think there are people of his quality (or indicators) that will be signing for close to 3/70 though.

Berrios FIP's the last two years (4.72 and 4.65) are not good... and front offices look way more at FIP than ERA, as its more predictive. He also had a fairly significant decline in his stuff this past year based on pitch metrics. Poor predictive stats, fairly significant decline in stuff, possibly hurt... all the things that 100% deter front offices.

Merrill Kelly is predicted around 2/30 and Bassitt around 2/35, and they were better than Berrios last year. Older but stuff did not deteriorate either in 2025.

I just can't see how the Jays won't have to eat at least 40% of that deal if they are intent on moving him, for no salary in return. Now if you deal for a questionable contract on the other side, then maybe there is no eating.

I consider myself to be an avid baseball fan but I had no clue what FIP stood for, until I googled it.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) | Glossary | MLB.com