I think it’s easy for Canadians to over estimate how much time the US spends thinking about Canada. It’s very near zero. We did a deal with Australia before Canada (and for the first time they will take our beef), that should tell you something. It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump waits until the end to deal with Canada and Mexico. GM has already said publicly they will move production back to the US to avoid paying $1b in tariffs they can’t pass on to customers. I don’t think he really gives a shit about potash, soft wood or avocados. It’s likely manufacturing an assembly that he wants to pull back to the US high tariff would serve that purpose.
Then why are Governors, Senators, and Mayors all courting us? Begging us to come back? You might not think of us, but a shit load of border communities do.
And I think GM is talking out of both sides of their mouth. It would takes years to reset their supply chain and billions in investments. Just to see the next admin remove tariffs. They are already pissed about the Japan deal framework. And Japan is saying read the fine print.
As I said earlier. These aren't deals, just frameworks to appease things. The EU already has said their 600 billion pledge is meaningless as it's up to business. And several govts have said the deal is bullshit.
His 90 deals in 90 days isn't happening. And as for Canada and Mexico the USMCA is still in effect and the vast majority of trade is happening normally. Court challenges on the tariffs by US claimants are reaching decision soon.
The constitution is clear on who can impose tariffs.
Meanwhile what you and Trump don't get is this affects so much more than trade. The world just will stop buying American products. And travelling there. It's already happening. You think Europe and Japan is suddenly going to buy Ford F-150's? Huge SUV's? They won't fit on their streets, and guzzle way too much gas.
But hey, if you want to support a sales tax of 15% plus go ahead. Go look at Walmrt, Dollar General, Target, and various other retail pricing. They are passing it along as pre ordered inventory dries up.