blackrock13 said:
This a question for 'Someone'. No one else has to read this but it might apply to this thread.
Economics and history interesects in Chile. Milton Friedman, nobel economist, pulls a rabbit out of his hat and grabs Chile from a point of no return.
He's renown for his theory that money does not only rely in changes in the quantity of money but also the demand for money. As the Quantity of Money Available rises, and the 'Velocity of Money' and the Price level of goods and services are constant, The Price Level of Goods & Services also rises. Is that it?
I'm hoping that not too many eyes are glazing over a this point. I told you that you didn't have to read this.
Using simple maths:
MV=PY
dM V+ M dV=dP Y + dY P
This expression means that you can modify the monetary mass and the velocity at the same time. Agents and markets involved will find a new equilibrium either rising prices or output. You can simplify by doing dV=0 and dY=0, in this special case dM V=dP Y, the rise in prices will be V/Y.
Could this be put in simpler terms? If all you do is ask for more and more and don't give good returns for that increase, thing eventually go to hell in a hand basket and fall apart apart with uncontrolled prices increase.
Where are you Someone?
You seem to be the only person here who knows anything about Freidman. That is likely because most of his critics are liberal arts types who have neither the knowledge of math or economics to understand his economic works. The only stuff by him that they can really read is his philosophical stuff.
I will just clarify a couple of things in your post. Freidman did not come up with the quantity equation. Irving Fisher is usually cited with it but I understand that you can actually trace it back even further. The quantity equation is an identity that has to be true and not one argues about that. Fisher argued it was more than just an identity as he argued that dV = 0 and Y was determined by the real economy (e.g. the state of technology, the stocks of capital and labour).
There is a relationship between the quantity equation and Friedman’s X% rule. Basically, Friedman wrote a famous monetary history of the United States and came to the conclusion that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." There is not doubt that this conclusion is true in the long run. No knowledgeable person seriously debates this. This led to Freidman’s X% rule. If dV = 0, then a percentage increase in M leads to an approximately equal percentage increase in P plus Y (I will lead you to verify the math as it is not hard). Thus, he argued that if you don’t want inflation, you just have to set the increase in the money supply equal to the long run rate of growth in the economy.
There is no doubt that Freidman had a point. However, implementing it turned out to be hard. The Bank of Canada tried to do this. However, it turned out to be during a period of extreme financial innovation. This meant that V was unstable. Some blame this for the subsequent recession. Another problem is that central banks don’t have perfect control over the money supply and data on it lags by months and even then is often subject to large revisions. Thus, for both reasons, a central bank may think it is following the X% rule but find out much later that the money supply was growing much faster or slower than they thought. This has led the Bank of Canada (and several other central banks) to target inflation with interest rates as a policy tool rather than the money supply. They can instantly observe what interest rates are but can only estimate what the money supply is without waiting months for data. Although Friedman was correct in the long run that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." It turns out that targeting inflation with interest rates as a policy tool seems to be a more effective way of influencing the relationship.
Apparently, the European Central Bank still uses monetary targets but I do not know the details (I am actually a microeconomist and not a macroeconomist so this is not my area of specialization)